Jesús Cerquides

Carlo Bono, Mehmet Oğuz Mülâyim, Cinzia Cappiello et al.

Social media have the potential to provide timely information about emergency situations and sudden events. However, finding relevant information among millions of posts being posted every day can be difficult, and developing a data analysis project usually requires time and technical skills. This study presents an approach that provides flexible support for analyzing social media, particularly during emergencies. Different use cases in which social media analysis can be adopted are introduced, and the challenges of retrieving information from large sets of posts are discussed. The focus is on analyzing images and text contained in social media posts and a set of automatic data processing tools for filtering, classification, and geolocation of content with a human-in-the-loop approach to support the data analyst. Such support includes both feedback and suggestions to configure automated tools, and crowdsourcing to gather inputs from citizens. The results are validated by discussing three case studies developed within the Crowd4SDG H2020 European project.

Jesus Cerquides

Probabilistic graphical models allow us to encode a large probability distribution as a composition of smaller ones. It is oftentimes the case that we are interested in incorporating in the model the idea that some of these smaller distributions are likely to be similar to one another. In this paper we provide an information geometric approach on how to incorporate this information, and see that it allows us to reinterpret some already existing models.

Jesus Cerquides

In this paper we leverage on probability over Riemannian manifolds to rethink the interpretation of priors and posteriors in Bayesian inference. The main mindshift is to move away from the idea that "a prior distribution establishes a probability distribution over the parameters of our model" to the idea that "a prior distribution establishes a probability distribution over probability distributions". To do that we assume that our probabilistic model is a Riemannian manifold with the Fisher metric. Under this mindset, any distribution over probability distributions should be "intrinsic", that is, invariant to the specific parametrization which is selected for the manifold. We exemplify our ideas through a simple analysis of distributions over the manifold of Bernoulli distributions. One of the major shortcomings of maximum a posteriori estimates is that they depend on the parametrization. Based on the understanding developed here, we can define the maximum a posteriori estimate which is independent of the parametrization.

Filippo Bistaffa, Juan A. Rodríguez-Aguilar, Jesús Cerquides

Peer-to-peer ridesharing (P2P-RS) enables people to arrange one-time rides with their own private cars, without the involvement of professional drivers. It is a prominent collective intelligence application producing significant benefits both for individuals (reduced costs) and for the entire community (reduced pollution and traffic), as we showed in a recent publication where we proposed an online approximate solution algorithm for large-scale P2P-RS. In this paper we tackle the fundamental question of assessing the benefit of predicting ridesharing requests in the context of P2P-RS optimisation. Results on a public real-world show that, by employing a perfect predictor, the total reward can be improved by 5.27% with a forecast horizon of 1 minute. On the other hand, a vanilla long short-term memory neural network cannot improve upon a baseline predictor that simply replicates the previous day's requests, whilst achieving an almost-double accuracy.

Borja Sánchez-López, Jesus Cerquides

The multinomial logistic regression (MLR) model is widely used in statistics and machine learning. Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is the most common approach for determining the parameters of a MLR model in big data scenarios. However, SGD has slow sub-linear rates of convergence. A way to improve these rates of convergence is to use manifold optimization. Along this line, stochastic natural gradient descent (SNGD), proposed by Amari, was proven to be Fisher efficient when it converged. However, SNGD is not guaranteed to converge and it is computationally too expensive for MLR models with a large number of parameters. Here, we propose a stochastic optimization method for MLR based on manifold optimization concepts which (i) has per-iteration computational complexity is linear in the number of parameters and (ii) can be proven to converge. To achieve (i) we establish that the family of joint distributions for MLR is a dually flat manifold and we use that to speed up calculations. Sánchez-López and Cerquides have recently introduced convergent stochastic natural gradient descent (CSNGD), a variant of SNGD whose convergence is guaranteed. To obtain (ii) our algorithm uses the fundamental idea from CSNGD, thus relying on an independent sequence to build a bounded approximation of the natural gradient. We call the resulting algorithm dual stochastic natural gradient descent (DNSGD). By generalizing a result from Sunehag et al., we prove that DSNGD converges. Furthermore, we prove that the computational complexity of DSNGD iterations are linear on the number of variables of the model.

Marc Pujol-Gonzalez, Jesus Cerquides, Pedro Meseguer et al.

We present the Limited-range Online Routing Problem (LORP), which involves a team of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) with limited communication range that must autonomously coordinate to service task requests. We first show a general approach to cast this dynamic problem as a sequence of decentralized task allocation problems. Then we present two solutions both based on modeling the allocation task as a Markov Random Field to subsequently assess decisions by means of the decentralized Max-Sum algorithm. Our first solution assumes independence between requests, whereas our second solution also considers the UAVs' workloads. A thorough empirical evaluation shows that our workload-based solution consistently outperforms current state-of-the-art methods in a wide range of scenarios, lowering the average service time up to 16%. In the best-case scenario there is no gap between our decentralized solution and centralized techniques. In the worst-case scenario we manage to reduce by 25% the gap between current decentralized and centralized techniques. Thus, our solution becomes the method of choice for our problem.

Jesús Cerquides, Rémi Emonet, Gauthier Picard et al.

In the context of solving large distributed constraint optimization problems (DCOP), belief-propagation and approximate inference algorithms are candidates of choice. However, in general, when the factor graph is very loopy (i.e. cyclic), these solution methods suffer from bad performance, due to non-convergence and many exchanged messages. As to improve performances of the Max-Sum inference algorithm when solving loopy constraint optimization problems, we propose here to take inspiration from the belief-propagation-guided dec-imation used to solve sparse random graphs (k-satisfiability). We propose the novel DeciMaxSum method, which is parameterized in terms of policies to decide when to trigger decimation, which variables to decimate, and which values to assign to decimated variables. Based on an empirical evaluation on a classical BP benchmark (the Ising model), some of these combinations of policies exhibit better performance than state-of-the-art competitors.

Filippo Bistaffa, Alessandro Farinelli, Jesús Cerquides et al.

Coalition formation typically involves the coming together of multiple, heterogeneous, agents to achieve both their individual and collective goals. In this paper, we focus on a special case of coalition formation known as Graph-Constrained Coalition Formation (GCCF) whereby a network connecting the agents constrains the formation of coalitions. We focus on this type of problem given that in many real-world applications, agents may be connected by a communication network or only trust certain peers in their social network. We propose a novel representation of this problem based on the concept of edge contraction, which allows us to model the search space induced by the GCCF problem as a rooted tree. Then, we propose an anytime solution algorithm (CFSS), which is particularly efficient when applied to a general class of characteristic functions called $m+a$ functions. Moreover, we show how CFSS can be efficiently parallelised to solve GCCF using a non-redundant partition of the search space. We benchmark CFSS on both synthetic and realistic scenarios, using a real-world dataset consisting of the energy consumption of a large number of households in the UK. Our results show that, in the best case, the serial version of CFSS is 4 orders of magnitude faster than the state of the art, while the parallel version is 9.44 times faster than the serial version on a 12-core machine. Moreover, CFSS is the first approach to provide anytime approximate solutions with quality guarantees for very large systems of agents (i.e., with more than 2700 agents).

Jordi Roca-Lacostena, Jesus Cerquides, Marc Pouly

Valuation algebras abstract a large number of formalisms for automated reasoning and enable the definition of generic inference procedures. Many of these formalisms provide some notion of solution. Typical examples are satisfying assignments in constraint systems, models in logics or solutions to linear equation systems. Many widely used dynamic programming algorithms for optimization problems rely on low treewidth decompositions and can be understood as particular cases of a single algorithmic scheme for finding solutions in a valuation algebra. The most encompassing description of this algorithmic scheme to date has been proposed by Pouly and Kohlas together with sufficient conditions for its correctness. Unfortunately, the formalization relies on a theorem for which we provide counterexamples. In spite of that, the mainline of Pouly and Kohlas' theory is correct, although some of the necessary conditions have to be revised. In this paper we analyze the impact that the counter-examples have on the theory, and rebuild the theory providing correct sufficient conditions for the algorithms. Furthermore, we also provide necessary conditions for the algorithms, allowing for a sharper characterization of when the algorithmic scheme can be applied.

Jordi Roca-Lacostena, Jesus Cerquides

Valuation algebras abstract a large number of formalisms for automated reasoning and enable the definition of generic inference procedures. Many of these formalisms provide some notions of solutions. Typical examples are satisfying assignments in constraint systems, models in logics or solutions to linear equation systems. Recently, formal requirements for the presence of solutions and a generic algorithm for solution construction based on the results of a previously executed inference scheme have been proposed in the literature. Unfortunately, the formalization of Pouly and Kohlas relies on a theorem for which we provide a counter example. In spite of that, the mainline of the theory described is correct, although some of the necessary conditions to apply some of the algorithms have to be revised. To fix the theory, we generalize some of their definitions and provide correct sufficient conditions for the algorithms. As a result, we get a more general and corrected version of the already existing theory.

Victor Bellon, Jesus Cerquides, Ivo Grosse

Classifiers based on probabilistic graphical models are very effective. In continuous domains, maximum likelihood is usually used to assess the predictions of those classifiers. When data is scarce, this can easily lead to overfitting. In any probabilistic setting, Bayesian averaging (BA) provides theoretically optimal predictions and is known to be robust to overfitting. In this work we introduce Bayesian Conditional Gaussian Network Classifiers, which efficiently perform exact Bayesian averaging over the parameters. We evaluate the proposed classifiers against the maximum likelihood alternatives proposed so far over standard UCI datasets, concluding that performing BA improves the quality of the assessed probabilities (conditional log likelihood) whilst maintaining the error rate. Overfitting is more likely to occur in domains where the number of data items is small and the number of variables is large. These two conditions are met in the realm of bioinformatics, where the early diagnosis of cancer from mass spectra is a relevant task. We provide an application of our classification framework to that problem, comparing it with the standard maximum likelihood alternative, where the improvement of quality in the assessed probabilities is confirmed.

Arturo Ribes, Jesús Cerquides, Yiannis Demiris et al.

In order to anticipate dangerous events, like a collision, an agent needs to make long-term predictions. However, those are challenging due to uncertainties in internal and external variables and environment dynamics. A sensorimotor model is acquired online by the mobile robot using a state-of-the-art method that learns the optical flow distribution in images, both in space and time. The learnt model is used to anticipate the optical flow up to a given time horizon and to predict an imminent collision by using reinforcement learning. We demonstrate that multi-modal predictions reduce to simpler distributions once actions are taken into account.