Xinyu Su

Xinyu Su, Feng Liu, Yanchuan Chang et al.

Traffic forecasting is crucial for transportation systems optimisation. Current models minimise the mean forecasting errors, often favouring periodic events prevalent in the training data, while overlooking critical aperiodic ones like traffic incidents. To address this, we propose DualCast, a dual-branch framework that disentangles traffic signals into intrinsic spatial-temporal patterns and external environmental contexts, including aperiodic events. DualCast also employs a cross-time attention mechanism to capture high-order spatial-temporal relationships from both periodic and aperiodic patterns. DualCast is versatile. We integrate it with recent traffic forecasting models, consistently reducing their forecasting errors by up to 9.6% on multiple real datasets. Our source code is available at https://github.com/suzy0223/DualCast.

Xinyu Su, Jianzhong Qi, Egemen Tanin et al.

Spatial-temporal forecasting plays an important role in many real-world applications, such as traffic forecasting, air pollutant forecasting, crowd-flow forecasting, and so on. State-of-the-art spatial-temporal forecasting models take data-driven approaches and rely heavily on data availability. Such models suffer from accuracy issues when data is incomplete, which is common in reality due to the heavy costs of deploying and maintaining sensors for data collection. A few recent studies attempted to address the issue of incomplete data. They typically assume some data availability in a region of interest either for a short period or at a few locations. In this paper, we further study spatial-temporal forecasting for a region of interest without any historical observations, to address scenarios such as unbalanced region development, progressive deployment of sensors or lack of open data. We propose a model named STSM for the task. The model takes a contrastive learning-based approach to learn spatial-temporal patterns from adjacent regions that have recorded data. Our key insight is to learn from the locations that resemble those in the region of interest, and we propose a selective masking strategy to enable the learning. As a result, our model outperforms adapted state-of-the-art models, reducing errors consistently over both traffic and air pollutant forecasting tasks. The source code is available at https://github.com/suzy0223/STSM.

Xinyu Su, Majid Sarvi, Feng Liu et al.

Traffic forecasting is essential for intelligent transportation systems. Accurate forecasting relies on continuous observations collected by traffic sensors. However, due to high deployment and maintenance costs, not all regions are equipped with such sensors. This paper aims to forecast for regions without traffic sensors, where the lack of historical traffic observations challenges the generalisability of existing models. We propose a model named GenCast, the core idea of which is to exploit external knowledge to compensate for the missing observations and to enhance generalisation. We integrate physics-informed neural networks into GenCast, enabling physical principles to regularise the learning process. We introduce an external signal learning module to explore correlations between traffic states and external signals such as weather conditions, further improving model generalisability. Additionally, we design a spatial grouping module to filter localised features that hinder model generalisability. Extensive experiments show that GenCast consistently reduces forecasting errors on multiple real-world datasets.