Frederick C. Harris

Yifan Zhang, Rui Wu, Sergiu M. Dascalu et al.

Multivariate Time Series (MTS) forecasting involves modeling temporal dependencies within historical records. Transformers have demonstrated remarkable performance in MTS forecasting due to their capability to capture long-term dependencies. However, prior work has been confined to modeling temporal dependencies at either a fixed scale or multiple scales that exponentially increase (most with base 2). This limitation hinders their effectiveness in capturing diverse seasonalities, such as hourly and daily patterns. In this paper, we introduce a dimension invariant embedding technique that captures short-term temporal dependencies and projects MTS data into a higher-dimensional space, while preserving the dimensions of time steps and variables in MTS data. Furthermore, we present a novel Multi-scale Transformer Pyramid Network (MTPNet), specifically designed to effectively capture temporal dependencies at multiple unconstrained scales. The predictions are inferred from multi-scale latent representations obtained from transformers at various scales. Extensive experiments on nine benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed MTPNet outperforms recent state-of-the-art methods.

Ponkoj Chandra Shill, Rui Wu, Hossein Jamali et al.

This paper presents a work-in-progress on a learn-ing system that will provide robotics students with a personalized learning environment. This addresses both the scarcity of skilled robotics instructors, particularly in community colleges and the expensive demand for training equipment. The study of robotics at the college level represents a wide range of interests, experiences, and aims. This project works to provide students the flexibility to adapt their learning to their own goals and prior experience. We are developing a system to enable robotics instruction through a web-based interface that is compatible with less expensive hardware. Therefore, the free distribution of teaching materials will empower educators. This project has the potential to increase the number of robotics courses offered at both two- and four-year schools and universities. The course materials are being designed with small units and a hierarchical dependency tree in mind; students will be able to customize their course of study based on the robotics skills they have already mastered. We present an evaluation of a five module mini-course in robotics. Students indicated that they had a positive experience with the online content. They also scored the experience highly on relatedness, mastery, and autonomy perspectives, demonstrating strong motivation potential for this approach.

Yifan Zhang, Rui Wu, Sergiu M. Dascalu et al.

Transformers have achieved remarkable performance in multivariate time series(MTS) forecasting due to their capability to capture long-term dependencies. However, the canonical attention mechanism has two key limitations: (1) its quadratic time complexity limits the sequence length, and (2) it generates future values from the entire historical sequence. To address this, we propose a Dozer Attention mechanism consisting of three sparse components: (1) Local, each query exclusively attends to keys within a localized window of neighboring time steps. (2) Stride, enables each query to attend to keys at predefined intervals. (3) Vary, allows queries to selectively attend to keys from a subset of the historical sequence. Notably, the size of this subset dynamically expands as forecasting horizons extend. Those three components are designed to capture essential attributes of MTS data, including locality, seasonality, and global temporal dependencies. Additionally, we present the Dozerformer Framework, incorporating the Dozer Attention mechanism for the MTS forecasting task. We evaluated the proposed Dozerformer framework with recent state-of-the-art methods on nine benchmark datasets and confirmed its superior performance. The experimental results indicate that excluding a subset of historical time steps from the time series forecasting process does not compromise accuracy while significantly improving efficiency. Code is available at https://github.com/GRYGY1215/Dozerformer.