Bruno Loureiro

Luca Arnaboldi, Ludovic Stephan, Florent Krzakala et al.

This manuscript investigates the one-pass stochastic gradient descent (SGD) dynamics of a two-layer neural network trained on Gaussian data and labels generated by a similar, though not necessarily identical, target function. We rigorously analyse the limiting dynamics via a deterministic and low-dimensional description in terms of the sufficient statistics for the population risk. Our unifying analysis bridges different regimes of interest, such as the classical gradient-flow regime of vanishing learning rate, the high-dimensional regime of large input dimension, and the overparameterised "mean-field" regime of large network width, covering as well the intermediate regimes where the limiting dynamics is determined by the interplay between these behaviours. In particular, in the high-dimensional limit, the infinite-width dynamics is found to remain close to a low-dimensional subspace spanned by the target principal directions. Our results therefore provide a unifying picture of the limiting SGD dynamics with synthetic data.

Luca Pesce, Florent Krzakala, Bruno Loureiro et al.

In this manuscript we consider the problem of generalized linear estimation on Gaussian mixture data with labels given by a single-index model. Our first result is a sharp asymptotic expression for the test and training errors in the high-dimensional regime. Motivated by the recent stream of results on the Gaussian universality of the test and training errors in generalized linear estimation, we ask ourselves the question: "when is a single Gaussian enough to characterize the error?". Our formula allow us to give sharp answers to this question, both in the positive and negative directions. More precisely, we show that the sufficient conditions for Gaussian universality (or lack of thereof) crucially depend on the alignment between the target weights and the means and covariances of the mixture clusters, which we precisely quantify. In the particular case of least-squares interpolation, we prove a strong universality property of the training error, and show it follows a simple, closed-form expression. Finally, we apply our results to real datasets, clarifying some recent discussion in the literature about Gaussian universality of the errors in this context.

Federica Gerace, Florent Krzakala, Bruno Loureiro et al.

While classical in many theoretical settings - and in particular in statistical physics-inspired works - the assumption of Gaussian i.i.d. input data is often perceived as a strong limitation in the context of statistics and machine learning. In this study, we redeem this line of work in the case of generalized linear classification, a.k.a. the perceptron model, with random labels. We argue that there is a large universality class of high-dimensional input data for which we obtain the same minimum training loss as for Gaussian data with corresponding data covariance. In the limit of vanishing regularization, we further demonstrate that the training loss is independent of the data covariance. On the theoretical side, we prove this universality for an arbitrary mixture of homogeneous Gaussian clouds. Empirically, we show that the universality holds also for a broad range of real datasets.

Lucas Clarté, Bruno Loureiro, Florent Krzakala et al.

Uncertainty quantification is a central challenge in reliable and trustworthy machine learning. Naive measures such as last-layer scores are well-known to yield overconfident estimates in the context of overparametrized neural networks. Several methods, ranging from temperature scaling to different Bayesian treatments of neural networks, have been proposed to mitigate overconfidence, most often supported by the numerical observation that they yield better calibrated uncertainty measures. In this work, we provide a sharp comparison between popular uncertainty measures for binary classification in a mathematically tractable model for overparametrized neural networks: the random features model. We discuss a trade-off between classification accuracy and calibration, unveiling a double descent like behavior in the calibration curve of optimally regularized estimators as a function of overparametrization. This is in contrast with the empirical Bayes method, which we show to be well calibrated in our setting despite the higher generalization error and overparametrization.

Lucas Clarté, Bruno Loureiro, Florent Krzakala et al.

Despite their incredible performance, it is well reported that deep neural networks tend to be overoptimistic about their prediction confidence. Finding effective and efficient calibration methods for neural networks is therefore an important endeavour towards better uncertainty quantification in deep learning. In this manuscript, we introduce a novel calibration technique named expectation consistency (EC), consisting of a post-training rescaling of the last layer weights by enforcing that the average validation confidence coincides with the average proportion of correct labels. First, we show that the EC method achieves similar calibration performance to temperature scaling (TS) across different neural network architectures and data sets, all while requiring similar validation samples and computational resources. However, we argue that EC provides a principled method grounded on a Bayesian optimality principle known as the Nishimori identity. Next, we provide an asymptotic characterization of both TS and EC in a synthetic setting and show that their performance crucially depends on the target function. In particular, we discuss examples where EC significantly outperforms TS.

Luca Pesce, Bruno Loureiro, Florent Krzakala et al.

A simple model to study subspace clustering is the high-dimensional $k$-Gaussian mixture model where the cluster means are sparse vectors. Here we provide an exact asymptotic characterization of the statistically optimal reconstruction error in this model in the high-dimensional regime with extensive sparsity, i.e. when the fraction of non-zero components of the cluster means $ρ$, as well as the ratio $α$ between the number of samples and the dimension are fixed, while the dimension diverges. We identify the information-theoretic threshold below which obtaining a positive correlation with the true cluster means is statistically impossible. Additionally, we investigate the performance of the approximate message passing (AMP) algorithm analyzed via its state evolution, which is conjectured to be optimal among polynomial algorithm for this task. We identify in particular the existence of a statistical-to-computational gap between the algorithm that require a signal-to-noise ratio $λ_{\text{alg}} \ge k / \sqrtα $ to perform better than random, and the information theoretic threshold at $λ_{\text{it}} \approx \sqrt{-k ρ\logρ} / \sqrtα$. Finally, we discuss the case of sub-extensive sparsity $ρ$ by comparing the performance of the AMP with other sparsity-enhancing algorithms, such as sparse-PCA and diagonal thresholding.

Dominik Schröder, Hugo Cui, Daniil Dmitriev et al.

This manuscript considers the problem of learning a random Gaussian network function using a fully connected network with frozen intermediate layers and trainable readout layer. This problem can be seen as a natural generalization of the widely studied random features model to deeper architectures. First, we prove Gaussian universality of the test error in a ridge regression setting where the learner and target networks share the same intermediate layers, and provide a sharp asymptotic formula for it. Establishing this result requires proving a deterministic equivalent for traces of the deep random features sample covariance matrices which can be of independent interest. Second, we conjecture the asymptotic Gaussian universality of the test error in the more general setting of arbitrary convex losses and generic learner/target architectures. We provide extensive numerical evidence for this conjecture, which requires the derivation of closed-form expressions for the layer-wise post-activation population covariances. In light of our results, we investigate the interplay between architecture design and implicit regularization.

Elisabetta Cornacchia, Francesca Mignacco, Rodrigo Veiga et al.

One of the most classical results in high-dimensional learning theory provides a closed-form expression for the generalisation error of binary classification with the single-layer teacher-student perceptron on i.i.d. Gaussian inputs. Both Bayes-optimal estimation and empirical risk minimisation (ERM) were extensively analysed for this setting. At the same time, a considerable part of modern machine learning practice concerns multi-class classification. Yet, an analogous analysis for the corresponding multi-class teacher-student perceptron was missing. In this manuscript we fill this gap by deriving and evaluating asymptotic expressions for both the Bayes-optimal and ERM generalisation errors in the high-dimensional regime. For Gaussian teacher weights, we investigate the performance of ERM with both cross-entropy and square losses, and explore the role of ridge regularisation in approaching Bayes-optimality. In particular, we observe that regularised cross-entropy minimisation yields close-to-optimal accuracy. Instead, for a binary teacher we show that a first-order phase transition arises in the Bayes-optimal performance.

Urte Adomaityte, Leonardo Defilippis, Bruno Loureiro et al.

We investigate the high-dimensional properties of robust regression estimators in the presence of heavy-tailed contamination of both the covariates and response functions. In particular, we provide a sharp asymptotic characterisation of M-estimators trained on a family of elliptical covariate and noise data distributions including cases where second and higher moments do not exist. We show that, despite being consistent, the Huber loss with optimally tuned location parameter $δ$ is suboptimal in the high-dimensional regime in the presence of heavy-tailed noise, highlighting the necessity of further regularisation to achieve optimal performance. This result also uncovers the existence of a transition in $δ$ as a function of the sample complexity and contamination. Moreover, we derive the decay rates for the excess risk of ridge regression. We show that, while it is both optimal and universal for covariate distributions with finite second moment, its decay rate can be considerably faster when the covariates' second moment does not exist. Finally, we show that our formulas readily generalise to a richer family of models and data distributions, such as generalised linear estimation with arbitrary convex regularisation trained on mixture models.

Leonardo Defilippis, Florent Krzakala, Bruno Loureiro et al.

In this work, we provide a sharp theory of scaling laws for two-layer neural networks trained on a class of hierarchical multi-index targets, in a genuinely representation-limited regime. We derive exact information-theoretic scaling laws for subspace recovery and prediction error, revealing how the hierarchical features of the target are sequentially learned through a cascade of phase transitions. We further show that these optimal rates are achieved by a simple, target-agnostic spectral estimator, which can be interpreted as the small learning-rate limit of gradient descent on the first-layer weights. Once an adapted representation is identified, the readout can be learned statistically optimally, using an efficient procedure. As a consequence, we provide a unified and rigorous explanation of scaling laws, plateau phenomena, and spectral structure in shallow neural networks trained on such hierarchical targets.

João Lobo, Bruno Loureiro, Long Tran-Than et al.

Feature learning is widely regarded as the key mechanism distinguishing neural networks from fixed-kernel methods, yet its impact on the induced function space remains poorly understood. In this work, we precisely characterize how the function space spanned by the features of a two-layer neural network evolves during gradient descent training. We prove that, in the high-dimensional proportional regime, after a large gradient step the post-update feature distribution is well approximated by a target-dependent spiked Gaussian covariance. This induces a data-adaptive kernel that reshapes the function space and modifies its spectral structure. Our analysis reveals that feature learning can be interpreted as a distributional transformation in either parameter space or input space, equivalently as the introduction of a target-dependent kernel. In particular, it selectively amplifies eigenvalues aligned with the target direction and mixes leading eigenfunctions, coupling the top radial mode with a target-aligned quadratic harmonic. Overall, our results provide a precise function-space perspective on early-stage feature learning: rather than just rescaling a fixed kernel, gradient descent induces a data-adaptive deformation that preferentially enhances directions aligned with the signal in the data.

Pierre-Alexandre Mattei, Bruno Loureiro

Temperature scaling is a simple method that allows to control the uncertainty of probabilistic models. It is mostly used in two contexts: improving the calibration of classifiers and tuning the stochasticity of large language models (LLMs). In both cases, temperature scaling is the most popular method for the job. Despite its popularity, a rigorous theoretical analysis of the properties of temperature scaling has remained elusive. We investigate here some of these properties. For classification, we show that increasing the temperature increases the uncertainty in the model in a very general sense (and in particular increases its entropy). However, for LLMs, we challenge the common claim that increasing temperature increases diversity. Furthermore, we introduce two new characterisations of temperature scaling. The first one is geometric: the tempered model is shown to be the information projection of the original model onto the set of models with a given entropy. The second characterisation clarifies the role of temperature scaling as a submodel of more general linear scalers such as matrix scaling and Dirichlet calibration: we show that temperature scaling is the only linear scaler that does not change the hard predictions of the model.

Leonardo Defilippis, Florent Krzakala, Bruno Loureiro et al.

Understanding when learning is statistically possible yet computationally hard is a central challenge in high-dimensional statistics. In this work, we investigate this question in the context of single- and multi-index models, classes of functions widely studied as benchmarks to probe the ability of machine learning methods to discover features in high-dimensional data. Our main contribution is to show that a Noise Sensitivity Exponent (NSE) - a simple quantity determined by the activation function - governs the existence and magnitude of statistical-to-computational gaps within a broad regime of these models. We first establish that, in single-index models with large additive noise, the onset of a computational bottleneck is fully characterized by the NSE. We then demonstrate that the same exponent controls a statistical-computational gap in the specialization transition of large separable multi-index models, where individual components become learnable. Finally, in hierarchical multi-index models, we show that the NSE governs the optimal computational rate in which different directions are sequentially learned. Taken together, our results identify the NSE as a unifying property linking noise robustness, computational hardness, and feature specialization in high-dimensional learning.

Luigi Fogliani, Bruno Loureiro, Marylou Gabrié

Mode collapse, the failure to capture one or more modes when targetting a multimodal distribution, is a central challenge in modern variational inference. In this work, we provide a mathematical analysis of annealing based strategies for mitigating mode collapse in a tractable setting: learning a Gaussian mixture, where mode collapse is known to arise. Leveraging a low dimensional summary statistics description, we precisely characterize the interplay between the initial temperature and the annealing rate, and derive a sharp formula for the probability of mode collapse. Our analysis shows that an appropriately chosen annealing scheme can robustly prevent mode collapse. Finally, we present numerical evidence that these theoretical tradeoffs qualitatively extend to neural network based models, RealNVP normalizing flows, providing guidance for designing annealing strategies mitigating mode collapse in practical variational inference pipelines.

Arie Wortsman-Zurich, Hugo Tabanelli, Yatin Dandi et al.

We propose a simple mechanism by which scaling laws emerge from feature learning in multi-layer networks. We study a high-dimensional hierarchical target that is a globally high-degree function, but that can be represented by a combination of latent compositional features whose weights decrease as a power law. We show that a layer-wise spectral algorithm adapted to this compositional structure achieves improved scaling relative to shallow, non-adaptive methods, and recovers the latent directions sequentially: strong features become detectable at small sample sizes, while weaker features require more data. We prove sharp feature-wise recovery thresholds and show that aggregating these transitions yields an explicit power-law decay of the prediction error. Technically, the analysis relies on random matrix methods and a resolvent-based perturbation argument, which gives matching upper and lower bounds for individual eigenvector recovery beyond what standard gap-based perturbation bounds provide. Numerical experiments confirm the predicted sequential recovery, finite-size smoothing of the thresholds, and separation from non-hierarchical kernel baselines. Together, these results show how smooth scaling laws can emerge from a cascade of sharp feature-learning transitions.

Arie Wortsman Zurich, Federica Gerace, Bruno Loureiro et al.

In the era of transformer models, masked self-supervised learning (SSL) has become a foundational training paradigm. A defining feature of masked SSL is that training aggregates predictions across many masking patterns, giving rise to a joint, matrix-valued predictor rather than a single vector-valued estimator. This object encodes how coordinates condition on one another and poses new analytical challenges. We develop a precise high-dimensional analysis of masked modeling objectives in the proportional regime where the number of samples scales with the ambient dimension. Our results provide explicit expressions for the generalization error and characterize the spectral structure of the learned predictor, revealing how masked modeling extracts structure from data. For spiked covariance models, we show that the joint predictor undergoes a Baik--Ben Arous--Péché (BBP)-type phase transition, identifying when masked SSL begins to recover latent signals. Finally, we identify structured regimes in which masked self-supervised learning provably outperforms PCA, highlighting potential advantages of SSL objectives over classical unsupervised methods

Hugo Cui, Luca Pesce, Yatin Dandi et al.

In this manuscript, we investigate the problem of how two-layer neural networks learn features from data, and improve over the kernel regime, after being trained with a single gradient descent step. Leveraging the insight from (Ba et al., 2022), we model the trained network by a spiked Random Features (sRF) model. Further building on recent progress on Gaussian universality (Dandi et al., 2023), we provide an exact asymptotic description of the generalization error of the sRF in the high-dimensional limit where the number of samples, the width, and the input dimension grow at a proportional rate. The resulting characterization for sRFs also captures closely the learning curves of the original network model. This enables us to understand how adapting to the data is crucial for the network to efficiently learn non-linear functions in the direction of the gradient -- where at initialization it can only express linear functions in this regime.

Leonardo Defilippis, Bruno Loureiro, Theodor Misiakiewicz

In this work we investigate the generalization performance of random feature ridge regression (RFRR). Our main contribution is a general deterministic equivalent for the test error of RFRR. Specifically, under a certain concentration property, we show that the test error is well approximated by a closed-form expression that only depends on the feature map eigenvalues. Notably, our approximation guarantee is non-asymptotic, multiplicative, and independent of the feature map dimension -- allowing for infinite-dimensional features. We expect this deterministic equivalent to hold broadly beyond our theoretical analysis, and we empirically validate its predictions on various real and synthetic datasets. As an application, we derive sharp excess error rates under standard power-law assumptions of the spectrum and target decay. In particular, we provide a tight result for the smallest number of features achieving optimal minimax error rate.

Emanuele Troiani, Yatin Dandi, Leonardo Defilippis et al.

Multi-index models - functions which only depend on the covariates through a non-linear transformation of their projection on a subspace - are a useful benchmark for investigating feature learning with neural nets. This paper examines the theoretical boundaries of efficient learnability in this hypothesis class, focusing on the minimum sample complexity required for weakly recovering their low-dimensional structure with first-order iterative algorithms, in the high-dimensional regime where the number of samples $n\!=\!αd$ is proportional to the covariate dimension $d$. Our findings unfold in three parts: (i) we identify under which conditions a trivial subspace can be learned with a single step of a first-order algorithm for any $α\!>\!0$; (ii) if the trivial subspace is empty, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of an easy subspace where directions that can be learned only above a certain sample complexity $α\!>\!α_c$, where $α_{c}$ marks a computational phase transition. In a limited but interesting set of really hard directions -- akin to the parity problem -- $α_c$ is found to diverge. Finally, (iii) we show that interactions between different directions can result in an intricate hierarchical learning phenomenon, where directions can be learned sequentially when coupled to easier ones. We discuss in detail the grand staircase picture associated to these functions (and contrast it with the original staircase one). Our theory builds on the optimality of approximate message-passing among first-order iterative methods, delineating the fundamental learnability limit across a broad spectrum of algorithms, including neural networks trained with gradient descent, which we discuss in this context.

Dominik Schröder, Daniil Dmitriev, Hugo Cui et al.

For a large class of feature maps we provide a tight asymptotic characterisation of the test error associated with learning the readout layer, in the high-dimensional limit where the input dimension, hidden layer widths, and number of training samples are proportionally large. This characterization is formulated in terms of the population covariance of the features. Our work is partially motivated by the problem of learning with Gaussian rainbow neural networks, namely deep non-linear fully-connected networks with random but structured weights, whose row-wise covariances are further allowed to depend on the weights of previous layers. For such networks we also derive a closed-form formula for the feature covariance in terms of the weight matrices. We further find that in some cases our results can capture feature maps learned by deep, finite-width neural networks trained under gradient descent.

Yatin Dandi, Luca Pesce, Hugo Cui et al.

A key property of neural networks is their capacity of adapting to data during training. Yet, our current mathematical understanding of feature learning and its relationship to generalization remain limited. In this work, we provide a random matrix analysis of how fully-connected two-layer neural networks adapt to the target function after a single, but aggressive, gradient descent step. We rigorously establish the equivalence between the updated features and an isotropic spiked random feature model, in the limit of large batch size. For the latter model, we derive a deterministic equivalent description of the feature empirical covariance matrix in terms of certain low-dimensional operators. This allows us to sharply characterize the impact of training in the asymptotic feature spectrum, and in particular, provides a theoretical grounding for how the tails of the feature spectrum modify with training. The deterministic equivalent further yields the exact asymptotic generalization error, shedding light on the mechanisms behind its improvement in the presence of feature learning. Our result goes beyond standard random matrix ensembles, and therefore we believe it is of independent technical interest. Different from previous work, our result holds in the challenging maximal learning rate regime, is fully rigorous and allows for finitely supported second layer initialization, which turns out to be crucial for studying the functional expressivity of the learned features. This provides a sharp description of the impact of feature learning in the generalization of two-layer neural networks, beyond the random features and lazy training regimes.

Roman Soletskyi, Marylou Gabrié, Bruno Loureiro

While deep learning has expanded the possibilities for highly expressive variational families, the practical benefits of these tools for variational inference (VI) are often limited by the minimization of the traditional Kullback-Leibler objective, which can yield suboptimal solutions. A major challenge in this context is \emph{mode collapse}: the phenomenon where a model concentrates on a few modes of the target distribution during training, despite being statistically capable of expressing them all. In this work, we carry a theoretical investigation of mode collapse for the gradient flow on Gaussian mixture models. We identify the key low-dimensional statistics characterizing the flow, and derive a closed set of low-dimensional equations governing their evolution. Leveraging this compact description, we show that mode collapse is present even in statistically favorable scenarios, and identify two key mechanisms driving it: mean alignment and vanishing weight. Our theoretical findings are consistent with the implementation of VI using normalizing flows, a class of popular generative models, thereby offering practical insights.

Lucas Clarté, Adrien Vandenbroucque, Guillaume Dalle et al.

We investigate popular resampling methods for estimating the uncertainty of statistical models, such as subsampling, bootstrap and the jackknife, and their performance in high-dimensional supervised regression tasks. We provide a tight asymptotic description of the biases and variances estimated by these methods in the context of generalized linear models, such as ridge and logistic regression, taking the limit where the number of samples $n$ and dimension $d$ of the covariates grow at a comparable fixed rate $α\!=\! n/d$. Our findings are three-fold: i) resampling methods are fraught with problems in high dimensions and exhibit the double-descent-like behavior typical of these situations; ii) only when $α$ is large enough do they provide consistent and reliable error estimations (we give convergence rates); iii) in the over-parametrized regime $α\!<\!1$ relevant to modern machine learning practice, their predictions are not consistent, even with optimal regularization.

Luca Arnaboldi, Bruno Loureiro, Ludovic Stephan et al.

We study the dynamics of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for a class of sequence models termed Sequence Single-Index (SSI) models, where the target depends on a single direction in input space applied to a sequence of tokens. This setting generalizes classical single-index models to the sequential domain, encompassing simplified one-layer attention architectures. We derive a closed-form expression for the population loss in terms of a pair of sufficient statistics capturing semantic and positional alignment, and characterize the induced high-dimensional SGD dynamics for these coordinates. Our analysis reveals two distinct training phases: escape from uninformative initialization and alignment with the target subspace, and demonstrates how the sequence length and positional encoding influence convergence speed and learning trajectories. These results provide a rigorous and interpretable foundation for understanding how sequential structure in data can be beneficial for learning with attention-based models.

Leonardo Defilippis, Yatin Dandi, Pierre Mergny et al.

We consider the problem of how many samples from a Gaussian multi-index model are required to weakly reconstruct the relevant index subspace. Despite its increasing popularity as a testbed for investigating the computational complexity of neural networks, results beyond the single-index setting remain elusive. In this work, we introduce spectral algorithms based on the linearization of a message passing scheme tailored to this problem. Our main contribution is to show that the proposed methods achieve the optimal reconstruction threshold. Leveraging a high-dimensional characterization of the algorithms, we show that above the critical threshold the leading eigenvector correlates with the relevant index subspace, a phenomenon reminiscent of the Baik-Ben Arous-Peche (BBP) transition in spiked models arising in random matrix theory. Supported by numerical experiments and a rigorous theoretical framework, our work bridges critical gaps in the computational limits of weak learnability in multi-index model.

Kasimir Tanner, Matteo Vilucchio, Bruno Loureiro et al.

This work investigates adversarial training in the context of margin-based linear classifiers in the high-dimensional regime where the dimension $d$ and the number of data points $n$ diverge with a fixed ratio $α= n / d$. We introduce a tractable mathematical model where the interplay between the data and adversarial attacker geometries can be studied, while capturing the core phenomenology observed in the adversarial robustness literature. Our main theoretical contribution is an exact asymptotic description of the sufficient statistics for the adversarial empirical risk minimiser, under generic convex and non-increasing losses for a Block Feature Model. Our result allow us to precisely characterise which directions in the data are associated with a higher generalisation/robustness trade-off, as defined by a robustness and a usefulness metric. We show that the the presence of multiple different feature types is crucial to the high sample complexity performances of adversarial training. In particular, we unveil the existence of directions which can be defended without penalising accuracy. Finally, we show the advantage of defending non-robust features during training, identifying a uniform protection as an inherently effective defence mechanism.

Jie Huang, Bruno Loureiro, Stefano Sarao Mannelli

We study the population loss landscape of two-layer ReLU networks of the form $\sum_{k=1}^K \mathrm{ReLU}(w_k^\top x)$ in a realisable teacher-student setting with Gaussian covariates. We show that local minima admit an exact low-dimensional representation in terms of summary statistics, yielding a sharp and interpretable characterisation of the landscape. We further establish a direct link with one-pass SGD: local minima correspond to attractive fixed points of the dynamics in summary statistics space. This perspective reveals a hierarchical structure of minima: they are typically isolated in the well-specified regime, but become connected by flat directions as network width increases. In this overparameterised regime, global minima become increasingly accessible, attracting the dynamics and reducing convergence to spurious solutions. Overall, our results reveal intrinsic limitations of common simplifying assumptions, which may miss essential features of the loss landscape even in minimal neural network models.

Leonardo Defilippis, Yizhou Xu, Julius Girardin et al.

Neural scaling laws underlie many of the recent advances in deep learning, yet their theoretical understanding remains largely confined to linear models. In this work, we present a systematic analysis of scaling laws for quadratic and diagonal neural networks in the feature learning regime. Leveraging connections with matrix compressed sensing and LASSO, we derive a detailed phase diagram for the scaling exponents of the excess risk as a function of sample complexity and weight decay. This analysis uncovers crossovers between distinct scaling regimes and plateau behaviors, mirroring phenomena widely reported in the empirical neural scaling literature. Furthermore, we establish a precise link between these regimes and the spectral properties of the trained network weights, which we characterize in detail. As a consequence, we provide a theoretical validation of recent empirical observations connecting the emergence of power-law tails in the weight spectrum with network generalization performance, yielding an interpretation from first principles.

Matteo Vilucchio, Nikolaos Tsilivis, Bruno Loureiro et al.

Regularization, whether explicit in terms of a penalty in the loss or implicit in the choice of algorithm, is a cornerstone of modern machine learning. Indeed, controlling the complexity of the model class is particularly important when data is scarce, noisy or contaminated, as it translates a statistical belief on the underlying structure of the data. This work investigates the question of how to choose the regularization norm $\lVert \cdot \rVert$ in the context of high-dimensional adversarial training for binary classification. To this end, we first derive an exact asymptotic description of the robust, regularized empirical risk minimizer for various types of adversarial attacks and regularization norms (including non-$\ell_p$ norms). We complement this analysis with a uniform convergence analysis, deriving bounds on the Rademacher Complexity for this class of problems. Leveraging our theoretical results, we quantitatively characterize the relationship between perturbation size and the optimal choice of $\lVert \cdot \rVert$, confirming the intuition that, in the data scarce regime, the type of regularization becomes increasingly important for adversarial training as perturbations grow in size.

Gibbs Nwemadji, Bruno Loureiro, Jean Barbier

Pre-training on a source task is usually expected to facilitate fine-tuning on similar downstream problems. In this work, we mathematically show that this naive intuition is not always true: excessive pre-training can computationally slow down fine-tuning optimization. We study this phenomenon for low-rank adaptation (LoRA) fine-tuning on single-index models trained under one-pass SGD. Leveraging a summary statistics description of the fine-tuning dynamics, we precisely characterize how the convergence rate depends on the initial fine-tuning alignment and the degree of non-linearity of the target task. The key take away is that even when the pre-training and down- stream tasks are well aligned, strong pre-training can induce a prolonged search phase and hinder convergence. Our theory thus provides a unified picture of how pre-training strength and task difficulty jointly shape the dynamics and limitations of LoRA fine-tuning in a nontrivial tractable model.

Guillaume Braun, Bruno Loureiro, Ha Quang Minh et al.

Scaling laws describe how learning performance improves with data, compute, or training time, and have become a central theme in modern deep learning. We study this phenomenon in a canonical nonlinear model: phase retrieval with anisotropic Gaussian inputs whose covariance spectrum follows a power law. Unlike the isotropic case, where dynamics collapse to a two-dimensional system, anisotropy yields a qualitatively new regime in which an infinite hierarchy of coupled equations governs the evolution of the summary statistics. We develop a tractable reduction that reveals a three-phase trajectory: (i) fast escape from low alignment, (ii) slow convergence of the summary statistics, and (iii) spectral-tail learning in low-variance directions. From this decomposition, we derive explicit scaling laws for the mean-squared error, showing how spectral decay dictates convergence times and error curves. Experiments confirm the predicted phases and exponents. These results provide the first rigorous characterization of scaling laws in nonlinear regression with anisotropic data, highlighting how anisotropy reshapes learning dynamics.

Arie Wortsman, Bruno Loureiro

In this work, we investigate high-dimensional kernel ridge regression (KRR) on i.i.d. Gaussian data with anisotropic power-law covariance. This setting differs fundamentally from the classical source & capacity conditions for KRR, where power-law assumptions are typically imposed on the kernel eigen-spectrum itself. Our contributions are twofold. First, we derive an explicit characterization of the kernel spectrum for polynomial inner-product kernels, giving a precise description of how the kernel eigen-spectrum inherits the data decay. Second, we provide an asymptotic analysis of the excess risk in the high-dimensional regime for a particular kernel with this spectral behavior, showing that the sample complexity is governed by the effective dimension of the data rather than the ambient dimension. These results establish a fundamental advantage of learning with power-law anisotropic data over isotropic data. To our knowledge, this is the first rigorous treatment of non-linear KRR under power-law data.

Alexis Ayme, Bruno Loureiro

In this work, we address the following question: What minimal structural assumptions are needed to prevent the degradation of statistical learning bounds with increasing dimensionality? We investigate this question in the classical statistical setting of signal estimation from $n$ independent linear observations $Y_i = X_i^{\top}θ+ ε_i$. Our focus is on the generalization properties of a broad family of predictors that can be expressed as linear combinations of the training labels, $f(X) = \sum_{i=1}^{n} l_{i}(X) Y_i$. This class -- commonly referred to as linear prediction rules -- encompasses a wide range of popular parametric and non-parametric estimators, including ridge regression, gradient descent, and kernel methods. Our contributions are twofold. First, we derive non-asymptotic upper and lower bounds on the generalization error for this class under the assumption that the Bayes predictor $θ$ lies in an ellipsoid. Second, we establish a lower bound for the subclass of rotationally invariant linear prediction rules when the Bayes predictor is fixed. Our analysis highlights two fundamental contributions to the risk: (a) a variance-like term that captures the intrinsic dimensionality of the data; (b) the noiseless error, a term that arises specifically in the high-dimensional regime. These findings shed light on the role of structural assumptions in mitigating the curse of dimensionality.

Matteo Vilucchio, Lenka Zdeborová, Bruno Loureiro

What fundamentally distinguishes an adversarial attack from a misclassification due to limited model expressivity or finite data? In this work, we investigate this question in the setting of high-dimensional binary classification, where statistical effects due to limited data availability play a central role. We introduce a new error metric that precisely capture this distinction, quantifying model vulnerability to consistent adversarial attacks -- perturbations that preserve the ground-truth labels. Our main technical contribution is an exact and rigorous asymptotic characterization of these metrics in both well-specified models and latent space models, revealing different vulnerability patterns compared to standard robust error measures. The theoretical results demonstrate that as models become more overparameterized, their vulnerability to label-preserving perturbations grows, offering theoretical insight into the mechanisms underlying model sensitivity to adversarial attacks.

Luca Arnaboldi, Yatin Dandi, Florent Krzakala et al.

We study the impact of the batch size $n_b$ on the iteration time $T$ of training two-layer neural networks with one-pass stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on multi-index target functions of isotropic covariates. We characterize the optimal batch size minimizing the iteration time as a function of the hardness of the target, as characterized by the information exponents. We show that performing gradient updates with large batches $n_b \lesssim d^{\frac{\ell}{2}}$ minimizes the training time without changing the total sample complexity, where $\ell$ is the information exponent of the target to be learned \citep{arous2021online} and $d$ is the input dimension. However, larger batch sizes than $n_b \gg d^{\frac{\ell}{2}}$ are detrimental for improving the time complexity of SGD. We provably overcome this fundamental limitation via a different training protocol, \textit{Correlation loss SGD}, which suppresses the auto-correlation terms in the loss function. We show that one can track the training progress by a system of low-dimensional ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Finally, we validate our theoretical results with numerical experiments.

Yatin Dandi, Florent Krzakala, Bruno Loureiro et al.

For high-dimensional Gaussian data, we investigate theoretically how the features of a two-layer neural network adapt to the structure of the target function through a few large batch gradient descent steps, leading to an improvement in the approximation capacity from initialization. First, we compare the influence of batch size to that of multiple steps. For a single step, a batch of size $n = \mathcal{O}(d)$ is both necessary and sufficient to align with the target function, although only a single direction can be learned. In contrast, $n = \mathcal{O}(d^2)$ is essential for neurons to specialize in multiple relevant directions of the target with a single gradient step. Even in this case, we show there might exist ``hard'' directions requiring $n = \mathcal{O}(d^\ell)$ samples to be learned, where $\ell$ is known as the leap index of the target. Second, we show that the picture drastically improves over multiple gradient steps: a batch size of $n = \mathcal{O}(d)$ is indeed sufficient to learn multiple target directions satisfying a staircase property, where more and more directions can be learned over time. Finally, we discuss how these directions allow for a drastic improvement in the approximation capacity and generalization error over the initialization, illustrating a separation of scale between the random features/lazy regime and the feature learning regime. Our technical analysis leverages a combination of techniques related to concentration, projection-based conditioning, and Gaussian equivalence, which we believe are of independent interest. By pinning down the conditions necessary for specialization and learning, our results highlight the intertwined role of the structure of the task to learn, the details of the algorithm, and the architecture, shedding new light on how neural networks adapt to the feature and learn complex task from data over time.

Luca Arnaboldi, Florent Krzakala, Bruno Loureiro et al.

This study explores the sample complexity for two-layer neural networks to learn a generalized linear target function under Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD), focusing on the challenging regime where many flat directions are present at initialization. It is well-established that in this scenario $n=O(d \log d)$ samples are typically needed. However, we provide precise results concerning the pre-factors in high-dimensional contexts and for varying widths. Notably, our findings suggest that overparameterization can only enhance convergence by a constant factor within this problem class. These insights are grounded in the reduction of SGD dynamics to a stochastic process in lower dimensions, where escaping mediocrity equates to calculating an exit time. Yet, we demonstrate that a deterministic approximation of this process adequately represents the escape time, implying that the role of stochasticity may be minimal in this scenario.

Lucas Clarté, Bruno Loureiro, Florent Krzakala et al.

Being able to reliably assess not only the \emph{accuracy} but also the \emph{uncertainty} of models' predictions is an important endeavour in modern machine learning. Even if the model generating the data and labels is known, computing the intrinsic uncertainty after learning the model from a limited number of samples amounts to sampling the corresponding posterior probability measure. Such sampling is computationally challenging in high-dimensional problems and theoretical results on heuristic uncertainty estimators in high-dimensions are thus scarce. In this manuscript, we characterise uncertainty for learning from limited number of samples of high-dimensional Gaussian input data and labels generated by the probit model. In this setting, the Bayesian uncertainty (i.e. the posterior marginals) can be asymptotically obtained by the approximate message passing algorithm, bypassing the canonical but costly Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior. We then provide a closed-form formula for the joint statistics between the logistic classifier, the uncertainty of the statistically optimal Bayesian classifier and the ground-truth probit uncertainty. The formula allows us to investigate calibration of the logistic classifier learning from limited amount of samples. We discuss how over-confidence can be mitigated by appropriately regularising.

Rodrigo Veiga, Ludovic Stephan, Bruno Loureiro et al.

Despite the non-convex optimization landscape, over-parametrized shallow networks are able to achieve global convergence under gradient descent. The picture can be radically different for narrow networks, which tend to get stuck in badly-generalizing local minima. Here we investigate the cross-over between these two regimes in the high-dimensional setting, and in particular investigate the connection between the so-called mean-field/hydrodynamic regime and the seminal approach of Saad & Solla. Focusing on the case of Gaussian data, we study the interplay between the learning rate, the time scale, and the number of hidden units in the high-dimensional dynamics of stochastic gradient descent (SGD). Our work builds on a deterministic description of SGD in high-dimensions from statistical physics, which we extend and for which we provide rigorous convergence rates.

Bruno Loureiro, Cédric Gerbelot, Maria Refinetti et al.

From the sampling of data to the initialisation of parameters, randomness is ubiquitous in modern Machine Learning practice. Understanding the statistical fluctuations engendered by the different sources of randomness in prediction is therefore key to understanding robust generalisation. In this manuscript we develop a quantitative and rigorous theory for the study of fluctuations in an ensemble of generalised linear models trained on different, but correlated, features in high-dimensions. In particular, we provide a complete description of the asymptotic joint distribution of the empirical risk minimiser for generic convex loss and regularisation in the high-dimensional limit. Our result encompasses a rich set of classification and regression tasks, such as the lazy regime of overparametrised neural networks, or equivalently the random features approximation of kernels. While allowing to study directly the mitigating effect of ensembling (or bagging) on the bias-variance decomposition of the test error, our analysis also helps disentangle the contribution of statistical fluctuations, and the singular role played by the interpolation threshold that are at the roots of the "double-descent" phenomenon.

Hugo Cui, Bruno Loureiro, Florent Krzakala et al.

We consider the problem of kernel classification. While worst-case bounds on the decay rate of the prediction error with the number of samples are known for some classifiers, they often fail to accurately describe the learning curves of real data sets. In this work, we consider the important class of data sets satisfying the standard source and capacity conditions, comprising a number of real data sets as we show numerically. Under the Gaussian design, we derive the decay rates for the misclassification (prediction) error as a function of the source and capacity coefficients. We do so for two standard kernel classification settings, namely margin-maximizing Support Vector Machines (SVM) and ridge classification, and contrast the two methods. We find that our rates tightly describe the learning curves for this class of data sets, and are also observed on real data. Our results can also be seen as an explicit prediction of the exponents of a scaling law for kernel classification that is accurate on some real datasets.

Ali Bereyhi, Bruno Loureiro, Florent Krzakala et al.

Unlike the classical linear model, nonlinear generative models have been addressed sparsely in the literature of statistical learning. This work aims to bringing attention to these models and their secrecy potential. To this end, we invoke the replica method to derive the asymptotic normalized cross entropy in an inverse probability problem whose generative model is described by a Gaussian random field with a generic covariance function. Our derivations further demonstrate the asymptotic statistical decoupling of the Bayesian estimator and specify the decoupled setting for a given nonlinear model. The replica solution depicts that strictly nonlinear models establish an all-or-nothing phase transition: There exists a critical load at which the optimal Bayesian inference changes from perfect to an uncorrelated learning. Based on this finding, we design a new secure coding scheme which achieves the secrecy capacity of the wiretap channel. This interesting result implies that strictly nonlinear generative models are perfectly secured without any secure coding. We justify this latter statement through the analysis of an illustrative model for perfectly secure and reliable inference.

Bruno Loureiro, Gabriele Sicuro, Cédric Gerbelot et al.

Generalised linear models for multi-class classification problems are one of the fundamental building blocks of modern machine learning tasks. In this manuscript, we characterise the learning of a mixture of $K$ Gaussians with generic means and covariances via empirical risk minimisation (ERM) with any convex loss and regularisation. In particular, we prove exact asymptotics characterising the ERM estimator in high-dimensions, extending several previous results about Gaussian mixture classification in the literature. We exemplify our result in two tasks of interest in statistical learning: a) classification for a mixture with sparse means, where we study the efficiency of $\ell_1$ penalty with respect to $\ell_2$; b) max-margin multi-class classification, where we characterise the phase transition on the existence of the multi-class logistic maximum likelihood estimator for $K>2$. Finally, we discuss how our theory can be applied beyond the scope of synthetic data, showing that in different cases Gaussian mixtures capture closely the learning curve of classification tasks in real data sets.

Hugo Cui, Bruno Loureiro, Florent Krzakala et al.

In this manuscript we consider Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) under the Gaussian design. Exponents for the decay of the excess generalization error of KRR have been reported in various works under the assumption of power-law decay of eigenvalues of the features co-variance. These decays were, however, provided for sizeably different setups, namely in the noiseless case with constant regularization and in the noisy optimally regularized case. Intermediary settings have been left substantially uncharted. In this work, we unify and extend this line of work, providing characterization of all regimes and excess error decay rates that can be observed in terms of the interplay of noise and regularization. In particular, we show the existence of a transition in the noisy setting between the noiseless exponents to its noisy values as the sample complexity is increased. Finally, we illustrate how this crossover can also be observed on real data sets.

Bruno Loureiro, Cédric Gerbelot, Hugo Cui et al.

Teacher-student models provide a framework in which the typical-case performance of high-dimensional supervised learning can be described in closed form. The assumptions of Gaussian i.i.d. input data underlying the canonical teacher-student model may, however, be perceived as too restrictive to capture the behaviour of realistic data sets. In this paper, we introduce a Gaussian covariate generalisation of the model where the teacher and student can act on different spaces, generated with fixed, but generic feature maps. While still solvable in a closed form, this generalization is able to capture the learning curves for a broad range of realistic data sets, thus redeeming the potential of the teacher-student framework. Our contribution is then two-fold: First, we prove a rigorous formula for the asymptotic training loss and generalisation error. Second, we present a number of situations where the learning curve of the model captures the one of a realistic data set learned with kernel regression and classification, with out-of-the-box feature maps such as random projections or scattering transforms, or with pre-learned ones - such as the features learned by training multi-layer neural networks. We discuss both the power and the limitations of the framework.

Sebastian Goldt, Bruno Loureiro, Galen Reeves et al.

Understanding the impact of data structure on the computational tractability of learning is a key challenge for the theory of neural networks. Many theoretical works do not explicitly model training data, or assume that inputs are drawn component-wise independently from some simple probability distribution. Here, we go beyond this simple paradigm by studying the performance of neural networks trained on data drawn from pre-trained generative models. This is possible due to a Gaussian equivalence stating that the key metrics of interest, such as the training and test errors, can be fully captured by an appropriately chosen Gaussian model. We provide three strands of rigorous, analytical and numerical evidence corroborating this equivalence. First, we establish rigorous conditions for the Gaussian equivalence to hold in the case of single-layer generative models, as well as deterministic rates for convergence in distribution. Second, we leverage this equivalence to derive a closed set of equations describing the generalisation performance of two widely studied machine learning problems: two-layer neural networks trained using one-pass stochastic gradient descent, and full-batch pre-learned features or kernel methods. Finally, we perform experiments demonstrating how our theory applies to deep, pre-trained generative models. These results open a viable path to the theoretical study of machine learning models with realistic data.

Antoine Maillard, Bruno Loureiro, Florent Krzakala et al.

We consider the phase retrieval problem of reconstructing a $n$-dimensional real or complex signal $\mathbf{X}^{\star}$ from $m$ (possibly noisy) observations $Y_μ= | \sum_{i=1}^n Φ_{μi} X^{\star}_i/\sqrt{n}|$, for a large class of correlated real and complex random sensing matrices $\mathbfΦ$, in a high-dimensional setting where $m,n\to\infty$ while $α= m/n=Θ(1)$. First, we derive sharp asymptotics for the lowest possible estimation error achievable statistically and we unveil the existence of sharp phase transitions for the weak- and full-recovery thresholds as a function of the singular values of the matrix $\mathbfΦ$. This is achieved by providing a rigorous proof of a result first obtained by the replica method from statistical mechanics. In particular, the information-theoretic transition to perfect recovery for full-rank matrices appears at $α=1$ (real case) and $α=2$ (complex case). Secondly, we analyze the performance of the best-known polynomial time algorithm for this problem -- approximate message-passing -- establishing the existence of a statistical-to-algorithmic gap depending, again, on the spectral properties of $\mathbfΦ$. Our work provides an extensive classification of the statistical and algorithmic thresholds in high-dimensional phase retrieval for a broad class of random matrices.

Federica Gerace, Bruno Loureiro, Florent Krzakala et al.

We study generalised linear regression and classification for a synthetically generated dataset encompassing different problems of interest, such as learning with random features, neural networks in the lazy training regime, and the hidden manifold model. We consider the high-dimensional regime and using the replica method from statistical physics, we provide a closed-form expression for the asymptotic generalisation performance in these problems, valid in both the under- and over-parametrised regimes and for a broad choice of generalised linear model loss functions. In particular, we show how to obtain analytically the so-called double descent behaviour for logistic regression with a peak at the interpolation threshold, we illustrate the superiority of orthogonal against random Gaussian projections in learning with random features, and discuss the role played by correlations in the data generated by the hidden manifold model. Beyond the interest in these particular problems, the theoretical formalism introduced in this manuscript provides a path to further extensions to more complex tasks.

Benjamin Aubin, Bruno Loureiro, Antoine Baker et al.

We consider the problem of compressed sensing and of (real-valued) phase retrieval with random measurement matrix. We derive sharp asymptotics for the information-theoretically optimal performance and for the best known polynomial algorithm for an ensemble of generative priors consisting of fully connected deep neural networks with random weight matrices and arbitrary activations. We compare the performance to sparse separable priors and conclude that generative priors might be advantageous in terms of algorithmic performance. In particular, while sparsity does not allow to perform compressive phase retrieval efficiently close to its information-theoretic limit, it is found that under the random generative prior compressed phase retrieval becomes tractable.

Benjamin Aubin, Bruno Loureiro, Antoine Maillard et al.

Using a low-dimensional parametrization of signals is a generic and powerful way to enhance performance in signal processing and statistical inference. A very popular and widely explored type of dimensionality reduction is sparsity; another type is generative modelling of signal distributions. Generative models based on neural networks, such as GANs or variational auto-encoders, are particularly performant and are gaining on applicability. In this paper we study spiked matrix models, where a low-rank matrix is observed through a noisy channel. This problem with sparse structure of the spikes has attracted broad attention in the past literature. Here, we replace the sparsity assumption by generative modelling, and investigate the consequences on statistical and algorithmic properties. We analyze the Bayes-optimal performance under specific generative models for the spike. In contrast with the sparsity assumption, we do not observe regions of parameters where statistical performance is superior to the best known algorithmic performance. We show that in the analyzed cases the approximate message passing algorithm is able to reach optimal performance. We also design enhanced spectral algorithms and analyze their performance and thresholds using random matrix theory, showing their superiority to the classical principal component analysis. We complement our theoretical results by illustrating the performance of the spectral algorithms when the spikes come from real datasets.