M. Arana-Catania

Marco Ruiz, Miguel Arana-Catania, David R. Ardila et al.

Time-series causal discovery methods rely on assumptions such as stationarity, regular sampling, and bounded temporal dependence. When these assumptions are violated, structure learning can produce confident but misleading causal graphs without warning. We introduce Causal-Audit, a framework that formalizes assumption validation as calibrated risk assessment. The framework computes effect-size diagnostics across five assumption families (stationarity, irregularity, persistence, nonlinearity, and confounding proxies), aggregates them into four calibrated risk scores with uncertainty intervals, and applies an abstention-aware decision policy that recommends methods (e.g., PCMCI+, VAR-based Granger causality) only when evidence supports reliable inference. The semi-automatic diagnostic stage can also be used independently for structured assumption auditing in individual studies. Evaluation on a synthetic atlas of 500 data-generating processes (DGPs) spanning 10 violation families demonstrates well-calibrated risk scores (AUROC > 0.95), a 62% false positive reduction among recommended datasets, and 78% abstention on severe-violation cases. On 21 external evaluations from TimeGraph (18 categories) and CausalTime (3 domains), recommend-or-abstain decisions are consistent with benchmark specifications in all cases. An open-source implementation of our framework is available.

John Dougrez-Lewis, Elena Kochkina, M. Arana-Catania et al.

Work on social media rumour verification utilises signals from posts, their propagation and users involved. Other lines of work target identifying and fact-checking claims based on information from Wikipedia, or trustworthy news articles without considering social media context. However works combining the information from social media with external evidence from the wider web are lacking. To facilitate research in this direction, we release a novel dataset, PHEMEPlus, an extension of the PHEME benchmark, which contains social media conversations as well as relevant external evidence for each rumour. We demonstrate the effectiveness of incorporating such evidence in improving rumour verification models. Additionally, as part of the evidence collection, we evaluate various ways of query formulation to identify the most effective method.

M. Arana-Catania, Elena Kochkina, Arkaitz Zubiaga et al.

We present a comprehensive work on automated veracity assessment from dataset creation to developing novel methods based on Natural Language Inference (NLI), focusing on misinformation related to the COVID-19 pandemic. We first describe the construction of the novel PANACEA dataset consisting of heterogeneous claims on COVID-19 and their respective information sources. The dataset construction includes work on retrieval techniques and similarity measurements to ensure a unique set of claims. We then propose novel techniques for automated veracity assessment based on Natural Language Inference including graph convolutional networks and attention based approaches. We have carried out experiments on evidence retrieval and veracity assessment on the dataset using the proposed techniques and found them competitive with SOTA methods, and provided a detailed discussion.