Peng Wang

Xu Zhang, Qitong Wang, Peng Wang et al. · harvard

Modeling multiscale patterns is crucial for long-term time series forecasting (TSF). However, redundancy and noise in time series, together with semantic gaps between non-adjacent scales, make the efficient alignment and integration of multi-scale temporal dependencies challenging. To address this, we propose SEMixer, a lightweight multiscale model designed for long-term TSF. SEMixer features two key components: a Random Attention Mechanism (RAM) and a Multiscale Progressive Mixing Chain (MPMC). RAM captures diverse time-patch interactions during training and aggregates them via dropout ensemble at inference, enhancing patch-level semantics and enabling MLP-Mixer to better model multi-scale dependencies. MPMC further stacks RAM and MLP-Mixer in a memory-efficient manner, achieving more effective temporal mixing. It addresses semantic gaps across scales and facilitates better multiscale modeling and forecasting performance. We not only validate the effectiveness of SEMixer on 10 public datasets, but also on the \textit{2025 CCF AlOps Challenge} based on 21GB real wireless network data, where SEMixer achieves third place. The code is available at the link https://github.com/Meteor-Stars/SEMixer.

Xu Zhang, Peng Wang, Yichen Li et al.

Time series data are prone to noise in various domains, and training samples may contain low-predictability patterns that deviate from the normal data distribution, leading to training instability or convergence to poor local minima. Therefore, mitigating the adverse effects of low-predictability samples is crucial for time series analysis tasks such as time series forecasting (TSF) and time series classification (TSC). While many deep learning models have achieved promising performance, few consider how to identify and penalize low-predictability samples to improve model performance from the training perspective. To fill this gap, we propose a general Amortized Predictability-aware Training Framework (APTF) for both TSF and TSC. APTF introduces two key designs that enable the model to focus on high-predictability samples while still learning appropriately from low-predictability ones: (i) a Hierarchical Predictability-aware Loss (HPL) that dynamically identifies low-predictability samples and progressively expands their loss penalty as training evolves, and (ii) an amortization model that mitigates predictability estimation errors caused by model bias, further enhancing HPL's effectiveness. The code is available at https://github.com/Meteor-Stars/APTF.

Jiaquan Zhang, Fachrina Dewi Puspitasari, Songbo Zhang et al.

Neural operators offer an effective framework for learning solutions of partial differential equations for many physical systems in a resolution-invariant and data-driven manner. Existing neural operators, however, often suffer from instability in multi-layer iteration and long-horizon rollout, which stems from the unconstrained Euclidean latent space updates that violate the geometric and conservation laws. To address this challenge, we propose to constrain manifolds with low-rank Lie algebra parameterization that performs group action updates on the latent representation. Our method, termed Manifold Constraining based on Lie group (MCL), acts as an efficient \emph{plug-and-play} module that enforces geometric inductive bias to existing neural operators. Extensive experiments on various partial differential equations, such as 1-D Burgers and 2-D Navier-Stokes, over a wide range of parameters and steps demonstrate that our method effectively lowers the relative prediction error by 30-50\% at the cost of 2.26\% of parameter increase. The results show that our approach provides a scalable solution for improving long-term prediction fidelity by addressing the principled geometric constraints absent in the neural operator updates.