Lingwei Zhu

Xihao Piao, Zheng Chen, Lingwei Zhu et al.

Nonstationary time series forecasting suffers from the distribution shift issue due to the different distributions that produce the training and test data. Existing methods attempt to alleviate the dependence by, e.g., removing low-order moments from each individual sample. These solutions fail to capture the underlying time-evolving structure across samples and do not model the complex time structure. In this paper, we aim to address the distribution shift in the frequency space by considering all possible time structures. To this end, we propose a Time-Invariant Frequency Operator (TIFO), which learns stationarity-aware weights over the frequency spectrum across the entire dataset. The weight representation highlights stationary frequency components while suppressing non-stationary ones, thereby mitigating the distribution shift issue in time series. To justify our method, we show that the Fourier transform of time series data implicitly induces eigen-decomposition in the frequency space. TIFO is a plug-and-play approach that can be seamlessly integrated into various forecasting models. Experiments demonstrate our method achieves 18 top-1 and 6 top-2 results out of 28 forecasting settings. Notably, it yields 33.3% and 55.3% improvements in average MSE on the ETTm2 dataset. In addition, TIFO reduces computational costs by 60% -70% compared to baseline methods, demonstrating strong scalability across diverse forecasting models.

Kohei Obata, Zheng Chen, Yasuko Matsubara et al.

Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) has been an important area of research for decades, with reconstruction-based methods, mostly based on generative models, gaining popularity and demonstrating success. Diffusion models have recently attracted attention due to their advanced generative capabilities. Existing diffusion-based methods for TSAD rely on a conditional strategy, which reconstructs input instances from white noise with the aid of the conditioner. However, this poses challenges in accurately reconstructing the normal parts, resulting in suboptimal detection performance. In response, we propose a novel diffusion-based method, named AnomalyFilter, which acts as a selective filter that only denoises anomaly parts in the instance while retaining normal parts. To build such a filter, we mask Gaussian noise during the training phase and conduct the denoising process without adding noise to the instances. The synergy of the two simple components greatly enhances the performance of naive diffusion models. Extensive experiments on five datasets demonstrate that AnomalyFilter achieves notably low reconstruction error on normal parts, providing empirical support for its effectiveness in anomaly detection. AnomalyFilter represents a pioneering approach that focuses on the noise design of diffusion models specifically tailored for TSAD.