Samson S. Yu

Yinsong Chen, Samson S. Yu, Kashem M. Muttaqi

Advanced deep learning methods have shown remarkable success in power quality disturbance (PQD) classification. To enhance model transparency, explainable AI (XAI) techniques have been developed to provide instance-specific interpretations of classifier decisions. However, conventional XAI methods yield deterministic explanations, overlooking uncertainty and limiting reliability in safety-critical applications. This paper proposes a Bayesian explanation framework that models explanation uncertainty by generating a relevance attribution distribution for each instance. This method allows experts to select explanations based on confidence percentiles, thereby tailoring interpretability according to specific disturbance types. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world power quality datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework improves the transparency and reliability of PQD classifiers through uncertainty-aware explanations.

Yinsong Chen, Samson S. Yu, Kashem M. Muttaqi

Accurate wind power forecasting requires reliable uncertainty quantification, yet most existing methods report a single predictive uncertainty that conflates epistemic and aleatoric sources. This paper applies the law of total variance to the joint setting of heteroscedastic neural network regression and Bayesian posterior approximation, deriving an explicit decomposition of total uncertainty (TU) into aleatoric (AU) and epistemic (EU) components. The resulting estimators are compatible with standard posterior-approximation methods and with $β$-NLL training to regulate the mean--variance learning trade-off. A wind power--specific evaluation framework is proposed to validate disentanglement without access to ground-truth uncertainty labels, comprising three modules: controlled synthetic experiments to verify responses to heteroscedastic noise and distribution shift; data-property--driven validation on a real-world wind turbine SCADA dataset; and dataset-size scaling experiments to examine the predicted asymptotic behavior of EU. Across synthetic and real-world experiments, the decomposed AU and EU components respond in theoretically consistent directions to noise structure, distributional shift, and training-scale variation, supporting the theoretical consistency and operational utility of the proposed decomposition and evaluation protocol.

Yinsong Chen, Samson S. Yu, Zhong Li et al.

Post-hoc explainable AI (XAI) methods typically produce deterministic attribution maps, whereas Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) induce a distribution over explanations. Capturing the variability of this distribution is important for uncertainty-aware decision-making. This paper formalises the \emph{explanation distribution} as the push-forward measure of the BNN posterior through any Lipschitz-continuous attribution operator. It further proposes the uncertainty-aware relevance attribution operator (UA-RAO), a general family of operators that summarises the explanation distribution using the mean, variance, coefficient of variation, quantiles, and set-theoretic aggregation measures. Theoretical support is provided through Monte Carlo accessibility and Wasserstein approximation bounds. The framework is evaluated on a 15-class power quality disturbance (PQD) classification benchmark, comparing three BNN approximations paired with three attribution operators using relevance mass accuracy and intersection-over-union as localisation metrics. Results show that deep ensembles with the mean UA-RAO improve localisation over the deterministic baseline, while other UA-RAO summaries reveal uncertainty patterns absent from point-estimate attributions. Qualitative results on measured signals further suggest that these patterns generalise beyond the synthetic training distribution. The framework is domain-agnostic and can be applied to any BNN paired with a Lipschitz-continuous attribution operator.

Yinsong Chen, Samson S. Yu, Zhong Li et al.

In recent years, inconsistency in Bayesian deep learning has attracted significant attention. Tempered or generalized posterior distributions are frequently employed as direct and effective solutions. Nonetheless, the underlying mechanisms and the effectiveness of generalized posteriors remain active research topics. In this work, we interpret posterior tempering as a correction for model misspecification via adjustments to the joint probability, and as a recalibration of priors by reducing aleatoric uncertainty. We also introduce the generalized Laplace approximation, which requires only a simple modification to the Hessian calculation of the regularized loss and provides a flexible and scalable framework for high-quality posterior inference. We evaluate the proposed method on state-of-the-art neural networks and real-world datasets, demonstrating that the generalized Laplace approximation enhances predictive performance.