Helge Langseth

David Baumgartner, Helge Langseth, Kenth Engø-Monsen et al.

This paper introduces temporal-conditioned normalizing flows (tcNF), a novel framework that addresses anomaly detection in time series data with accurate modeling of temporal dependencies and uncertainty. By conditioning normalizing flows on previous observations, tcNF effectively captures complex temporal dynamics and generates accurate probability distributions of expected behavior. This autoregressive approach enables robust anomaly detection by identifying low-probability events within the learned distribution. We evaluate tcNF on diverse datasets, demonstrating good accuracy and robustness compared to existing methods. A comprehensive analysis of strengths and limitations and open-source code is provided to facilitate reproducibility and future research.

Bjørnar Vassøy, Helge Langseth, Benjamin Kille

An emerging definition of fairness in machine learning requires that models are oblivious to demographic user information, e.g., a user's gender or age should not influence the model. Personalized recommender systems are particularly prone to violating this definition through their explicit user focus and user modelling. Explicit user modelling is also an aspect that makes many recommender systems incapable of providing hitherto unseen users with recommendations. We propose novel approaches for mitigating discrimination in Variational Autoencoder-based recommender systems by limiting the encoding of demographic information. The approaches are capable of, and evaluated on, providing users that are not represented in the training data with fair recommendations.

David Baumgartner, Helge Langseth, Heri Ramampiaro

Real-world multivariate time series, particularly in critical infrastructure such as electrical power grids, are often corrupted by noise and anomalies that degrade the performance of downstream tasks. Standard data cleaning approaches often rely on disjoint strategies, which involve detecting errors with one model and imputing them with another. Such approaches can fail to capture the full joint distribution of the data and ignore prediction uncertainty. This work introduces Conditional Imputation and Noisy Data Integrity (CINDI), an unsupervised probabilistic framework designed to restore data integrity in complex time series. Unlike fragmented approaches, CINDI unifies anomaly detection and imputation into a single end-to-end system built on conditional normalizing flows. By modeling the exact conditional likelihood of the data, the framework identifies low-probability segments and iteratively samples statistically consistent replacements. This allows CINDI to efficiently reuse learned information while preserving the underlying physical and statistical properties of the system. We evaluate the framework using real-world grid loss data from a Norwegian power distribution operator, though the methodology is designed to generalize to any multivariate time series domain. The results demonstrate that CINDI yields robust performance compared to competitive baselines, offering a scalable solution for maintaining reliability in noisy environments.

Emil Blixt Hansen, Helge Langseth, Nadeem Iftikhar et al.

Within the field of prognostics and health management (PHM), health indicators (HI) can be used to aid the production and, e.g. schedule maintenance and avoid failures. However, HI is often engineered to a specific process and typically requires large amounts of historical data for set-up. This is especially a challenge for SMEs, which often lack sufficient resources and knowledge to benefit from PHM. In this paper, we propose ModularHI, a modular approach in the construction of HI for a system without historical data. With ModularHI, the operator chooses which sensor inputs are available, and then ModularHI will compute a baseline model based on data collected during a burn-in state. This baseline model will then be used to detect if the system starts to degrade over time. We test the ModularHI on two open datasets, CMAPSS and N-CMAPSS. Results from the former dataset showcase our system's ability to detect degradation, while results from the latter point to directions for further research within the area. The results shows that our novel approach is able to detect system degradation without historical data.

Bjørnar Vassøy, Benjamin Kille, Helge Langseth

One of the many fairness definitions pursued in recent recommender system research targets mitigating demographic information encoded in model representations. Models optimized for this definition are typically evaluated on how well demographic attributes can be classified given model representations, with the (implicit) assumption that this measure accurately reflects \textit{recommendation parity}, i.e., how similar recommendations given to different users are. We challenge this assumption by comparing the amount of demographic information encoded in representations with various measures of how the recommendations differ. We propose two new approaches for measuring how well demographic information can be classified given ranked recommendations. Our results from extensive testing of multiple models on one real and multiple synthetically generated datasets indicate that optimizing for fair representations positively affects recommendation parity, but also that evaluation at the representation level is not a good proxy for measuring this effect when comparing models. We also provide extensive insight into how recommendation-level fairness metrics behave for various models by evaluating their performances on numerous generated datasets with different properties.

Andrés R. Masegosa, Ana M. Martínez, Darío Ramos-López et al.

The AMIDST Toolbox is a software for scalable probabilistic machine learning with a spe- cial focus on (massive) streaming data. The toolbox supports a flexible modeling language based on probabilistic graphical models with latent variables and temporal dependencies. The specified models can be learnt from large data sets using parallel or distributed implementa- tions of Bayesian learning algorithms for either streaming or batch data. These algorithms are based on a flexible variational message passing scheme, which supports discrete and continu- ous variables from a wide range of probability distributions. AMIDST also leverages existing functionality and algorithms by interfacing to software tools such as Flink, Spark, MOA, Weka, R and HUGIN. AMIDST is an open source toolbox written in Java and available at http://www.amidsttoolbox.com under the Apache Software License version 2.0.

Anna Rodum Bjøru, Jacob Lysnæs-Larsen, Oskar Jørgensen et al.

This work presents a conceptual framework for causal concept-based post-hoc Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), based on the requirements that explanations for non-interpretable models should be understandable as well as faithful to the model being explained. Local and global explanations are generated by calculating the probability of sufficiency of concept interventions. Example explanations are presented, generated with a proof-of-concept model made to explain classifiers trained on the CelebA dataset. Understandability is demonstrated through a clear concept-based vocabulary, subject to an implicit causal interpretation. Fidelity is addressed by highlighting important framework assumptions, stressing that the context of explanation interpretation must align with the context of explanation generation.

Inga Strümke, Helge Langseth

Diffusion models are loosely modelled based on non-equilibrium thermodynamics, where \textit{diffusion} refers to particles flowing from high-concentration regions towards low-concentration regions. In statistics, the meaning is quite similar, namely the process of transforming a complex distribution $p_{\text{complex}}$ on $\mathbb{R}^d$ to a simple distribution $p_{\text{prior}}$ on the same domain. This constitutes a Markov chain of diffusion steps of slowly adding random noise to data, followed by a reverse diffusion process in which the data is reconstructed from the noise. The diffusion model learns the data manifold to which the original and thus the reconstructed data samples belong, by training on a large number of data points. While the diffusion process pushes a data sample off the data manifold, the reverse process finds a trajectory back to the data manifold. Diffusion models have -- unlike variational autoencoder and flow models -- latent variables with the same dimensionality as the original data, and they are currently\footnote{At the time of writing, 2023.} outperforming other approaches -- including Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) -- to modelling the distribution of, e.g., natural images.

Anna Rodum Bjøru, Rafael Cabañas, Helge Langseth et al.

Recently, Bjøru et al. proposed a novel divide-and-conquer algorithm for bounding counterfactual probabilities in structural causal models (SCMs). They assumed that the SCMs were learned from purely observational data, leading to an imprecise characterization of the marginal distributions of exogenous variables. Their method leveraged the canonical representation of structural equations to decompose a general SCM with high-cardinality exogenous variables into a set of sub-models with low-cardinality exogenous variables. These sub-models had precise marginals over the exogenous variables and therefore admitted efficient exact inference. The aggregated results were used to bound counterfactual probabilities in the original model. The approach was developed for Markovian models, where each exogenous variable affects only a single endogenous variable. In this paper, we investigate extending the methodology to \textit{semi-Markovian} SCMs, where exogenous variables may influence multiple endogenous variables. Such models are capable of representing confounding relationships that Markovian models cannot. We illustrate the challenges of this extension using a minimal example, which motivates a set of alternative solution strategies. These strategies are evaluated both theoretically and through a computational study.

Aleksandra Jekic, Afroditi Natsaridou, Signe Riemer-Sørensen et al.

Approximating solutions to partial differential equations (PDEs) is fundamental for the modeling of dynamical systems in science and engineering. Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) are a recent machine learning-based approach, for which many properties and limitations remain unknown. PINNs are widely accepted as inferior to traditional methods for solving PDEs, such as the finite element method, both with regard to computation time and accuracy. However, PINNs are commonly claimed to show promise in solving inverse problems and handling noisy or incomplete data. We compare the performance of PINNs in solving inverse problems with that of a traditional approach using the finite element method combined with a numerical optimizer. The models are tested on a series of increasingly difficult fluid mechanics problems, with and without noise. We find that while PINNs may require less human effort and specialized knowledge, they are outperformed by the traditional approach. However, the difference appears to decrease with higher dimensions and more data. We identify common failures during training to be addressed if the performance of PINNs on noisy inverse problems is to become more competitive.

Håkon Hanisch Kjærnli, Lluis Mas-Ribas, Hans Jakob Håland et al.

When deploying time series forecasting models based on machine learning to real world settings, one often encounter situations where the data distribution drifts. Such drifts expose the forecasting models to out-of-distribution (OOD) data, and machine learning models lack robustness in these settings. Robustness can be improved by using deep generative models or genetic algorithms to augment time series datasets, but these approaches lack interpretability and are computationally expensive. In this work, we develop an interpretable and simple framework for generating time series. Our method combines time-series decompositions with analytic functions, and is able to generate time series with characteristics matching both in- and out-of-distribution data. This approach allows users to generate new time series in an interpretable fashion, which can be used to augment the dataset and improve forecasting robustness. We demonstrate our framework through EXPRTS, a visual analytics tool designed for univariate time series forecasting models and datasets. Different visualizations of the data distribution, forecasting errors and single time series instances enable users to explore time series datasets, apply transformations, and evaluate forecasting model robustness across diverse scenarios. We show how our framework can generate meaningful OOD time series that improve model robustness, and we validate EXPRTS effectiveness and usability through three use-cases and a user study.

Bjørnar Vassøy, Helge Langseth

In the current landscape of ever-increasing levels of digitalization, we are facing major challenges pertaining to scalability. Recommender systems have become irreplaceable both for helping users navigate the increasing amounts of data and, conversely, aiding providers in marketing products to interested users. The growing awareness of discrimination in machine learning methods has recently motivated both academia and industry to research how fairness can be ensured in recommender systems. For recommender systems, such issues are well exemplified by occupation recommendation, where biases in historical data may lead to recommender systems relating one gender to lower wages or to the propagation of stereotypes. In particular, consumer-side fairness, which focuses on mitigating discrimination experienced by users of recommender systems, has seen a vast number of diverse approaches for addressing different types of discrimination. The nature of said discrimination depends on the setting and the applied fairness interpretation, of which there are many variations. This survey serves as a systematic overview and discussion of the current research on consumer-side fairness in recommender systems. To that end, a novel taxonomy based on high-level fairness interpretation is proposed and used to categorize the research and their proposed fairness evaluation metrics. Finally, we highlight some suggestions for the future direction of the field.

Yanzhe Bekkemoen, Helge Langseth

Neural networks are powerful function approximators with tremendous potential in learning complex distributions. However, they are prone to overfitting on spurious patterns. Bayesian inference provides a principled way to regularize neural networks and give well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. It allows us to specify prior knowledge on weights. However, specifying domain knowledge via distributions over weights is infeasible. Furthermore, it is unable to correct models when they focus on spurious or irrelevant features. New methods within explainable artificial intelligence allow us to regularize explanations in the form of feature importance to add domain knowledge and correct the models' focus. Nevertheless, they are incompatible with Bayesian neural networks, as they require us to modify the loss function. We propose a new explanation regularization method that is compatible with Bayesian inference. Consequently, we can quantify uncertainty and, at the same time, have correct explanations. We test our method using four different datasets. The results show that our method improves predictive performance when models overfit on spurious features or are uncertain of which features to focus on. Moreover, our method performs better than augmenting training data with samples where spurious features are removed through masking. We provide code, data, trained weights, and hyperparameters.

Tárik S. Salem, Helge Langseth, Heri Ramampiaro

Prediction intervals are a machine- and human-interpretable way to represent predictive uncertainty in a regression analysis. In this paper, we present a method for generating prediction intervals along with point estimates from an ensemble of neural networks. We propose a multi-objective loss function fusing quality measures related to prediction intervals and point estimates, and a penalty function, which enforces semantic integrity of the results and stabilizes the training process of the neural networks. The ensembled prediction intervals are aggregated as a split normal mixture accounting for possible multimodality and asymmetricity of the posterior predictive distribution, and resulting in prediction intervals that capture aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Our results show that both our quality-driven loss function and our aggregation method contribute to well-calibrated prediction intervals and point estimates.

Bjørn Magnus Mathisen, Agnar Aamodt, Kerstin Bach et al.

Defining similarity measures is a requirement for some machine learning methods. One such method is case-based reasoning (CBR) where the similarity measure is used to retrieve the stored case or set of cases most similar to the query case. Describing a similarity measure analytically is challenging, even for domain experts working with CBR experts. However, data sets are typically gathered as part of constructing a CBR or machine learning system. These datasets are assumed to contain the features that correctly identify the solution from the problem features, thus they may also contain the knowledge to construct or learn such a similarity measure. The main motivation for this work is to automate the construction of similarity measures using machine learning, while keeping training time as low as possible. Our objective is to investigate how to apply machine learning to effectively learn a similarity measure. Such a learned similarity measure could be used for CBR systems, but also for clustering data in semi-supervised learning, or one-shot learning tasks. Recent work has advanced towards this goal, relies on either very long training times or manually modeling parts of the similarity measure. We created a framework to help us analyze current methods for learning similarity measures. This analysis resulted in two novel similarity measure designs. One design using a pre-trained classifier as basis for a similarity measure. The second design uses as little modeling as possible while learning the similarity measure from data and keeping training time low. Both similarity measures were evaluated on 14 different datasets. The evaluation shows that using a classifier as basis for a similarity measure gives state of the art performance. Finally the evaluation shows that our fully data-driven similarity measure design outperforms state of the art methods while keeping training time low.

Andrés R. Masegosa, Rafael Cabañas, Helge Langseth et al.

Recent advances in statistical inference have significantly expanded the toolbox of probabilistic modeling. Historically, probabilistic modeling has been constrained to (i) very restricted model classes where exact or approximate probabilistic inference were feasible, and (ii) small or medium-sized data sets which fit within the main memory of the computer. However, developments in variational inference, a general form of approximate probabilistic inference originated in statistical physics, are allowing probabilistic modeling to overcome these restrictions: (i) Approximate probabilistic inference is now possible over a broad class of probabilistic models containing a large number of parameters, and (ii) scalable inference methods based on stochastic gradient descent and distributed computation engines allow to apply probabilistic modeling over massive data sets. One important practical consequence of these advances is the possibility to include deep neural networks within a probabilistic model to capture complex non-linear stochastic relationships between random variables. These advances in conjunction with the release of novel probabilistic modeling toolboxes have greatly expanded the scope of application of probabilistic models, and allow these models to take advantage of the recent strides made by the deep learning community. In this paper we review the main concepts, methods and tools needed to use deep neural networks within a probabilistic modeling framework.

Tárik S. Salem, Karan Kathuria, Heri Ramampiaro et al.

Keeping the electricity production in balance with the actual demand is becoming a difficult and expensive task in spite of an involvement of experienced human operators. This is due to the increasing complexity of the electric power grid system with the intermittent renewable production as one of the contributors. A beforehand information about an occurring imbalance can help the transmission system operator to adjust the production plans, and thus ensure a high security of supply by reducing the use of costly balancing reserves, and consequently reduce undesirable fluctuations of the 50 Hz power system frequency. In this paper, we introduce the relatively new problem of an intra-hour imbalance forecasting for the transmission system operator (TSO). We focus on the use case of the Norwegian TSO, Statnett. We present a complementary imbalance forecasting tool that is able to support the TSO in determining the trend of future imbalances, and show the potential to proactively alleviate imbalances with a higher accuracy compared to the contemporary solution.

Georgios K. Pitsilis, Heri Ramampiaro, Helge Langseth

This work addresses the challenges related to attacks on collaborative tagging systems, which often comes in a form of malicious annotations or profile injection attacks. In particular, we study various countermeasures against two types of such attacks for social tagging systems, the Overload attack and the Piggyback attack. The countermeasure schemes studied here include baseline classifiers such as, Naive Bayes filter and Support Vector Machine, as well as a Deep Learning approach. Our evaluation performed over synthetic spam data generated from del.icio.us dataset, shows that in most cases, Deep Learning can outperform the classical solutions, providing high-level protection against threats.

Ming Zeng, Haoxiang Gao, Tong Yu et al.

Deep neural networks, including recurrent networks, have been successfully applied to human activity recognition. Unfortunately, the final representation learned by recurrent networks might encode some noise (irrelevant signal components, unimportant sensor modalities, etc.). Besides, it is difficult to interpret the recurrent networks to gain insight into the models' behavior. To address these issues, we propose two attention models for human activity recognition: temporal attention and sensor attention. These two mechanisms adaptively focus on important signals and sensor modalities. To further improve the understandability and mean F1 score, we add continuity constraints, considering that continuous sensor signals are more robust than discrete ones. We evaluate the approaches on three datasets and obtain state-of-the-art results. Furthermore, qualitative analysis shows that the attention learned by the models agree well with human intuition.

Georgios Pitsilis, Heri Ramampiaro, Helge Langseth

This work addresses challenges related to attacks on social tagging systems, which often comes in a form of malicious annotations or profile injection attacks. In particular, we study various countermeasures against two types of threats for such systems, the Overload and the Piggyback attacks. The studied countermeasures include baseline classifiers such as, Naive Bayes filter and Support Vector Machine, as well as a deep learning-based approach. Our evaluation performed over synthetic spam data, generated from del.icio.us, shows that in most cases, the deep learning-based approach provides the best protection against threats.

Georgios K. Pitsilis, Heri Ramampiaro, Helge Langseth

This paper addresses the important problem of discerning hateful content in social media. We propose a detection scheme that is an ensemble of Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) classifiers, and it incorporates various features associated with user-related information, such as the users' tendency towards racism or sexism. These data are fed as input to the above classifiers along with the word frequency vectors derived from the textual content. Our approach has been evaluated on a publicly available corpus of 16k tweets, and the results demonstrate its effectiveness in comparison to existing state of the art solutions. More specifically, our scheme can successfully distinguish racism and sexism messages from normal text, and achieve higher classification quality than current state-of-the-art algorithms.

Basant Agarwal, Heri Ramampiaro, Helge Langseth et al.

This paper is concerned with paraphrase detection. The ability to detect similar sentences written in natural language is crucial for several applications, such as text mining, text summarization, plagiarism detection, authorship authentication and question answering. Given two sentences, the objective is to detect whether they are semantically identical. An important insight from this work is that existing paraphrase systems perform well when applied on clean texts, but they do not necessarily deliver good performance against noisy texts. Challenges with paraphrase detection on user generated short texts, such as Twitter, include language irregularity and noise. To cope with these challenges, we propose a novel deep neural network-based approach that relies on coarse-grained sentence modeling using a convolutional neural network and a long short-term memory model, combined with a specific fine-grained word-level similarity matching model. Our experimental results show that the proposed approach outperforms existing state-of-the-art approaches on user-generated noisy social media data, such as Twitter texts, and achieves highly competitive performance on a cleaner corpus.

Andres Masegosa, Thomas D. Nielsen, Helge Langseth et al.

Making inferences from data streams is a pervasive problem in many modern data analysis applications. But it requires to address the problem of continuous model updating and adapt to changes or drifts in the underlying data generating distribution. In this paper, we approach these problems from a Bayesian perspective covering general conjugate exponential models. Our proposal makes use of non-conjugate hierarchical priors to explicitly model temporal changes of the model parameters. We also derive a novel variational inference scheme which overcomes the use of non-conjugate priors while maintaining the computational efficiency of variational methods over conjugate models. The approach is validated on three real data sets over three latent variable models.

Massimiliano Ruocco, Ole Steinar Lillestøl Skrede, Helge Langseth

In recent years, research has been done on applying Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) as recommender systems. Results have been promising, especially in the session-based setting where RNNs have been shown to outperform state-of-the-art models. In many of these experiments, the RNN could potentially improve the recommendations by utilizing information about the user's past sessions, in addition to its own interactions in the current session. A problem for session-based recommendation, is how to produce accurate recommendations at the start of a session, before the system has learned much about the user's current interests. We propose a novel approach that extends a RNN recommender to be able to process the user's recent sessions, in order to improve recommendations. This is done by using a second RNN to learn from recent sessions, and predict the user's interest in the current session. By feeding this information to the original RNN, it is able to improve its recommendations. Our experiments on two different datasets show that the proposed approach can significantly improve recommendations throughout the sessions, compared to a single RNN working only on the current session. The proposed model especially improves recommendations at the start of sessions, and is therefore able to deal with the cold start problem within sessions.