Steven Hancock

Wenquan Dong, Edward T. A. Mitchard, Hao Yu et al.

Accurate quantification of forest aboveground biomass (AGB) is critical for understanding carbon accounting in the context of climate change. In this study, we presented a novel attention-based deep learning approach for forest AGB estimation, primarily utilizing openly accessible EO data, including: GEDI LiDAR data, C-band Sentinel-1 SAR data, ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 data, and Sentinel-2 multispectral data. The attention UNet (AU) model achieved markedly higher accuracy for biomass estimation compared to the conventional RF algorithm. Specifically, the AU model attained an R2 of 0.66, RMSE of 43.66 Mg ha-1, and bias of 0.14 Mg ha-1, while RF resulted in lower scores of R2 0.62, RMSE 45.87 Mg ha-1, and bias 1.09 Mg ha-1. However, the superiority of the deep learning approach was not uniformly observed across all tested models. ResNet101 only achieved an R2 of 0.50, an RMSE of 52.93 Mg ha-1, and a bias of 0.99 Mg ha-1, while the UNet reported an R2 of 0.65, an RMSE of 44.28 Mg ha-1, and a substantial bias of 1.84 Mg ha-1. Moreover, to explore the performance of AU in the absence of spatial information, fully connected (FC) layers were employed to eliminate spatial information from the remote sensing data. AU-FC achieved intermediate R2 of 0.64, RMSE of 44.92 Mgha-1, and bias of -0.56 Mg ha-1, outperforming RF but underperforming AU model using spatial information. We also generated 10m forest AGB maps across Guangdong for the year 2019 using AU and compared it with that produced by RF. The AGB distributions from both models showed strong agreement with similar mean values; the mean forest AGB estimated by AU was 102.18 Mg ha-1 while that of RF was 104.84 Mg ha-1. Additionally, it was observed that the AGB map generated by AU provided superior spatial information. Overall, this research substantiates the feasibility of employing deep learning for biomass estimation based on satellite data.

Reza M. Asiyabi, Juan Alberto Molina-Valero, The SEOSAW Partnership et al.

Estimating forest aboveground biomass (AGB) from Earth observation combines two structurally incompatible label sources: spaceborne lidar provides canopy structure at millions of locations but no biomass estimate, and ground-based plots provide biomass at thousands of biased locations but no metrics of structure. No single training sample carries labels for all target variables, plot labels are missing not at random (MNAR), and biomass is linked to the structural variables by known but biome-specific allometric laws. We formalise this as multi-task dense regression under heterogeneous disjoint partial supervision with MNAR labels and inter-task physical constraints, and propose StruMPL to address it jointly. A shared encoder feeds per-variable regression, imputation, and propensity heads for spatial MNAR correction, and a learnable physics module that evaluates the inter-task constraint on the model's own predictions at every pixel. The supervised loss uses an Augmented IPW (AIPW) pseudo-outcome with stop-gradients on the propensity and on the imputation baseline; we show analytically and empirically that both are necessary for joint optimisation to recover IPW-weighted stationary points while keeping the loss bounded. On two ecologically distinct biomes, StruMPL outperforms ablation variants and the closest published method on AGB RMSE and bias, with a stratified analysis showing AIPW reduces high-AGB bias by ~54%.

Reza M. Asiyabi, SEOSAW Partnership, Steven Hancock et al.

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) improve the explainability of black-box Deep Learning (DL) by introducing intermediate semantic concepts. However, standard CBMs often overlook domain-specific relationships and causal mechanisms, and their dependence on complete concept labels limits applicability in scientific domains where supervision is sparse but processes are well defined. To address this, we propose the Process-Guided Concept Bottleneck Model (PG-CBM), an extension of CBMs which constrains learning to follow domain-defined causal mechanisms through biophysically meaningful intermediate concepts. Using above ground biomass density estimation from Earth Observation data as a case study, we show that PG-CBM reduces error and bias compared to multiple benchmarks, whilst leveraging multi-source heterogeneous training data and producing interpretable intermediate outputs. Beyond improved accuracy, PG-CBM enhances transparency, enables detection of spurious learning, and provides scientific insights, representing a step toward more trustworthy AI systems in scientific applications.

Wenquan Dong, Edward T. A. Mitchard, Yuwei Chen et al.

Large-scale high spatial resolution aboveground biomass (AGB) maps play a crucial role in determining forest carbon stocks and how they are changing, which is instrumental in understanding the global carbon cycle, and implementing policy to mitigate climate change. The advent of the new space-borne LiDAR sensor, NASA's GEDI instrument, provides unparalleled possibilities for the accurate and unbiased estimation of forest AGB at high resolution, particularly in dense and tall forests, where Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and passive optical data exhibit saturation. However, GEDI is a sampling instrument, collecting dispersed footprints, and its data must be combined with that from other continuous cover satellites to create high-resolution maps, using local machine learning methods. In this study, we developed local models to estimate forest AGB from GEDI L2A data, as the models used to create GEDI L4 AGB data incorporated minimal field data from China. We then applied LightGBM and random forest regression to generate wall-to-wall AGB maps at 25 m resolution, using extensive GEDI footprints as well as Sentinel-1 data, ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 and Sentinel-2 optical data. Through a 5-fold cross-validation, LightGBM demonstrated a slightly better performance than Random Forest across two contrasting regions. However, in both regions, the computation speed of LightGBM is substantially faster than that of the random forest model, requiring roughly one-third of the time to compute on the same hardware. Through the validation against field data, the 25 m resolution AGB maps generated using the local models developed in this study exhibited higher accuracy compared to the GEDI L4B AGB data. We found in both regions an increase in error as slope increased. The trained models were tested on nearby but different regions and exhibited good performance.