Haimin Wang

Yasser Abduallah, Vania K. Jordanova, Hao Liu et al.

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) are an essential source of space radiation, which are hazards for humans in space, spacecraft, and technology in general. In this paper we propose a deep learning method, specifically a bidirectional long short-term memory (biLSTM) network, to predict if an active region (AR) would produce an SEP event given that (i) the AR will produce an M- or X-class flare and a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the flare, or (ii) the AR will produce an M- or X-class flare regardless of whether or not the flare is associated with a CME. The data samples used in this study are collected from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite's X-ray flare catalogs provided by the National Centers for Environmental Information. We select M- and X-class flares with identified ARs in the catalogs for the period between 2010 and 2021, and find the associations of flares, CMEs and SEPs in the Space Weather Database of Notifications, Knowledge, Information during the same period. Each data sample contains physical parameters collected from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory. Experimental results based on different performance metrics demonstrate that the proposed biLSTM network is better than related machine learning algorithms for the two SEP prediction tasks studied here. We also discuss extensions of our approach for probabilistic forecasting and calibration with empirical evaluation.

Haodi Jiang, Qin Li, Yan Xu et al.

Obtaining high-quality magnetic and velocity fields through Stokes inversion is crucial in solar physics. In this paper, we present a new deep learning method, named Stacked Deep Neural Networks (SDNN), for inferring line-of-sight (LOS) velocities and Doppler widths from Stokes profiles collected by the Near InfraRed Imaging Spectropolarimeter (NIRIS) on the 1.6 m Goode Solar Telescope (GST) at the Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO). The training data of SDNN is prepared by a Milne-Eddington (ME) inversion code used by BBSO. We quantitatively assess SDNN, comparing its inversion results with those obtained by the ME inversion code and related machine learning (ML) algorithms such as multiple support vector regression, multilayer perceptrons and a pixel-level convolutional neural network. Major findings from our experimental study are summarized as follows. First, the SDNN-inferred LOS velocities are highly correlated to the ME-calculated ones with the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient being close to 0.9 on average. Second, SDNN is faster, while producing smoother and cleaner LOS velocity and Doppler width maps, than the ME inversion code. Third, the maps produced by SDNN are closer to ME's maps than those from the related ML algorithms, demonstrating the better learning capability of SDNN than the ML algorithms. Finally, comparison between the inversion results of ME and SDNN based on GST/NIRIS and those from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory in flare-prolific active region NOAA 12673 is presented. We also discuss extensions of SDNN for inferring vector magnetic fields with empirical evaluation.

Haodi Jiang, Qin Li, Zhihang Hu et al.

Solar activity is usually caused by the evolution of solar magnetic fields. Magnetic field parameters derived from photospheric vector magnetograms of solar active regions have been used to analyze and forecast eruptive events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections. Unfortunately, the most recent solar cycle 24 was relatively weak with few large flares, though it is the only solar cycle in which consistent time-sequence vector magnetograms have been available through the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) since its launch in 2010. In this paper, we look into another major instrument, namely the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) from 1996 to 2010. The data archive of SOHO/MDI covers more active solar cycle 23 with many large flares. However, SOHO/MDI data only has line-of-sight (LOS) magnetograms. We propose a new deep learning method, named MagNet, to learn from combined LOS magnetograms, Bx and By taken by SDO/HMI along with H-alpha observations collected by the Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO), and to generate vector components Bx' and By', which would form vector magnetograms with observed LOS data. In this way, we can expand the availability of vector magnetograms to the period from 1996 to present. Experimental results demonstrate the good performance of the proposed method. To our knowledge, this is the first time that deep learning has been used to generate photospheric vector magnetograms of solar active regions for SOHO/MDI using SDO/HMI and H-alpha data.

Chenyang Li, Jihoon Chung, Mengnan Du et al.

Model compression is a crucial part of deploying neural networks (NNs), especially when the memory and storage of computing devices are limited in many applications. This paper focuses on two model compression techniques: low-rank approximation and weight pruning in neural networks, which are very popular nowadays. However, training NN with low-rank approximation and weight pruning always suffers significant accuracy loss and convergence issues. In this paper, a holistic framework is proposed for model compression from a novel perspective of nonconvex optimization by designing an appropriate objective function. Then, we introduce NN-BCD, a block coordinate descent (BCD) algorithm to solve the nonconvex optimization. One advantage of our algorithm is that an efficient iteration scheme can be derived with closed-form, which is gradient-free. Therefore, our algorithm will not suffer from vanishing/exploding gradient problems. Furthermore, with the Kurdyka-Łojasiewicz (KŁ) property of our objective function, we show that our algorithm globally converges to a critical point at the rate of O(1/k), where k denotes the number of iterations. Lastly, extensive experiments with tensor train decomposition and weight pruning demonstrate the efficiency and superior performance of the proposed framework. Our code implementation is available at https://github.com/ChenyangLi-97/NN-BCD

Jialiang Li, Vasyl Yurchyshyn, Jason T. L. Wang et al.

Solar eruptions, including flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), have a significant impact on Earth. Some flares are associated with CMEs, and some flares are not. The association between flares and CMEs is not always obvious. In this study, we propose a new deep learning method, specifically a hybrid neural network (HNN) that combines a vision transformer with long short-term memory, to predict associations between flares and CMEs. HNN finds spatio-temporal patterns in the time series of line-of-sight magnetograms of solar active regions (ARs) collected by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory and uses the patterns to predict whether a flare projected to occur within the next 24 hours will be eruptive (i.e., CME-associated) or confined (i.e., not CME-associated). Our experimental results demonstrate the good performance of the HNN method. Furthermore, the results show that magnetic flux cancellation in polarity inversion line regions may well play a role in triggering flare-associated CMEs, a finding consistent with literature.

Zhaoxin Yan, Jason T. L. Wang, Haimin Wang et al.

Understanding and forecasting the geoeffectiveness of a coronal mass ejection (CME) is crucial for protecting infrastructure in the near-Earth space environment and on Earth. In this study, we present a novel fusion model to forecast the geoeffectiveness of CME events. Our model combines convolutional neural networks for feature learning and a prediction network for feature fusion and event classification. The model is trained by observations from instruments including the Large Angle Spectroscopic Coronagraph (LASCO) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The trained model is then used to predict whether an Earth-reaching CME will cause a geomagnetic storm and/or the probability that the CME will cause such a storm. Experimental results based on a five-fold cross validation scheme demonstrate the good performance of our fusion model, achieving a mean true skill statistic (TSS) score of 0.703 when the model is used as a deterministic prediction tool, and a mean Brier score of 0.095 when the model is used as a probabilistic forecasting tool, where a TSS score of 1 or a Brier score of 0 indicates perfect performance. This work contributes to forecasting the causal relationship between Earth-directed CMEs and geomagnetic storms in solar-terrestrial interactions.

Yasser Abduallah, Jason T. L. Wang, Prianka Bose et al.

The disturbance storm time (Dst) index is an important and useful measurement in space weather research. It has been used to characterize the size and intensity of a geomagnetic storm. A negative Dst value means that the Earth's magnetic field is weakened, which happens during storms. In this paper, we present a novel deep learning method, called the Dst Transformer, to perform short-term, 1-6 hour ahead, forecasting of the Dst index based on the solar wind parameters provided by the NASA Space Science Data Coordinated Archive. The Dst Transformer combines a multi-head attention layer with Bayesian inference, which is capable of quantifying both aleatoric uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty when making Dst predictions. Experimental results show that the proposed Dst Transformer outperforms related machine learning methods in terms of the root mean square error and R-squared. Furthermore, the Dst Transformer can produce both data and model uncertainty quantification results, which can not be done by the existing methods. To our knowledge, this is the first time that Bayesian deep learning has been used for Dst index forecasting.

Zhenduo Wang, Yasser Abduallah, Jason T. L. Wang et al.

The F10.7 and F30 solar indices are the solar radio fluxes measured at wavelengths of 10.7 cm and 30 cm, respectively, which are key indicators of solar activity. F10.7 is valuable for explaining the impact of solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation on the upper atmosphere of Earth, while F30 is more sensitive and could improve the reaction of thermospheric density to solar stimulation. In this study, we present a new deep learning model, named the Solar Index Network, or SINet for short, to predict daily values of the F10.7 and F30 solar indices. The SINet model is designed to make medium-term predictions of the index values (1-60 days in advance). The observed data used for SINet training were taken from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as well as Toyokawa and Nobeyama facilities. Our experimental results show that SINet performs better than five closely related statistical and deep learning methods for the prediction of F10.7. Furthermore, to our knowledge, this is the first time deep learning has been used to predict the F30 solar index.

Yutao Du, Qin Li, Raghav Gnanasambandam et al.

Exploring the outer atmosphere of the sun has remained a significant bottleneck in astrophysics, given the intricate magnetic formations that significantly influence diverse solar events. Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations allow us to model the complex interactions between the sun's plasma, magnetic fields, and the surrounding environment. However, MHD simulation is extremely time-consuming, taking days or weeks for simulation. The goal of this study is to accelerate coronal magnetic field simulation using deep learning, specifically, the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO). FNO has been proven to be an ideal tool for scientific computing and discovery in the literature. In this paper, we proposed a global-local Fourier Neural Operator (GL-FNO) that contains two branches of FNOs: the global FNO branch takes downsampled input to reconstruct global features while the local FNO branch takes original resolution input to capture fine details. The performance of the GLFNO is compared with state-of-the-art deep learning methods, including FNO, U-NO, U-FNO, Vision Transformer, CNN-RNN, and CNN-LSTM, to demonstrate its accuracy, computational efficiency, and scalability. Furthermore, physics analysis from domain experts is also performed to demonstrate the reliability of GL-FNO. The results demonstrate that GL-FNO not only accelerates the MHD simulation (a few seconds for prediction, more than \times 20,000 speed up) but also provides reliable prediction capabilities, thus greatly contributing to the understanding of space weather dynamics. Our code implementation is available at https://github.com/Yutao-0718/GL-FNO

Bo Shen, Marco Marena, Chenyang Li et al.

With recent missions such as advanced space-based observatories like the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and Parker Solar Probe, and ground-based telescopes like the Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope (DKIST), the volume, velocity, and variety of data have made solar physics enter a transformative era as solar physics big data (SPBD). With the recent advancement of deep computer vision, there are new opportunities in SPBD for tackling problems that were previously unsolvable. However, there are new challenges arising due to the inherent characteristics of SPBD and deep computer vision models. This vision paper presents an overview of the different types of SPBD, explores new opportunities in applying deep computer vision to SPBD, highlights the unique challenges, and outlines several potential future research directions.

Jinghao Cao, Qin Li, Mengnan Du et al.

We propose Physics-informed Attention-enhanced Fourier Neural Operator (PIANO) to solve the Nonlinear Force-Free Field (NLFFF) problem in solar physics. Unlike conventional approaches that rely on iterative numerical methods, our proposed PIANO directly learns the 3D magnetic field structure from 2D boundary conditions. Specifically, PIANO integrates Efficient Channel Attention (ECA) mechanisms with Dilated Convolutions (DC), which enhances the model's ability to capture multimodal input by prioritizing critical channels relevant to the magnetic field's variations. Furthermore, we apply physics-informed loss by enforcing the force-free and divergence-free conditions in the training process so that our prediction is consistent with underlying physics with high accuracy. Experimental results on the ISEE NLFFF dataset show that our PIANO not only outperforms state-of-the-art neural operators in terms of accuracy but also shows strong consistency with the physical characteristics of NLFFF data across magnetic fields reconstructed from various solar active regions. The GitHub of this project is available https://github.com/Autumnstar-cjh/PIANO

Chunhui Xu, Jason T. L. Wang, Haimin Wang et al.

Image super-resolution has been an important subject in image processing and recognition. Here, we present an attention-aided convolutional neural network (CNN) for solar image super-resolution. Our method, named SolarCNN, aims to enhance the quality of line-of-sight (LOS) magnetograms of solar active regions (ARs) collected by the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). The ground-truth labels used for training SolarCNN are the LOS magnetograms collected by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Solar ARs consist of strong magnetic fields in which magnetic energy can suddenly be released to produce extreme space weather events, such as solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar energetic particles. SOHO/MDI covers Solar Cycle 23, which is stronger with more eruptive events than Cycle 24. Enhanced SOHO/MDI magnetograms allow for better understanding and forecasting of violent events of space weather. Experimental results show that SolarCNN improves the quality of SOHO/MDI magnetograms in terms of the structural similarity index measure (SSIM), Pearson's correlation coefficient (PCC), and the peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR).

Yasser Abduallah, Khalid A. Alobaid, Jason T. L. Wang et al.

We propose a novel deep learning framework, named SYMHnet, which employs a graph neural network and a bidirectional long short-term memory network to cooperatively learn patterns from solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters for short-term forecasts of the SYM-H index based on 1-minute and 5-minute resolution data. SYMHnet takes, as input, the time series of the parameters' values provided by NASA's Space Science Data Coordinated Archive and predicts, as output, the SYM-H index value at time point t + w hours for a given time point t where w is 1 or 2. By incorporating Bayesian inference into the learning framework, SYMHnet can quantify both aleatoric (data) uncertainty and epistemic (model) uncertainty when predicting future SYM-H indices. Experimental results show that SYMHnet works well at quiet time and storm time, for both 1-minute and 5-minute resolution data. The results also show that SYMHnet generally performs better than related machine learning methods. For example, SYMHnet achieves a forecast skill score (FSS) of 0.343 compared to the FSS of 0.074 of a recent gradient boosting machine (GBM) method when predicting SYM-H indices (1 hour in advance) in a large storm (SYM-H = -393 nT) using 5-minute resolution data. When predicting the SYM-H indices (2 hours in advance) in the large storm, SYMHnet achieves an FSS of 0.553 compared to the FSS of 0.087 of the GBM method. In addition, SYMHnet can provide results for both data and model uncertainty quantification, whereas the related methods cannot.

Khalid A. Alobaid, Yasser Abduallah, Jason T. L. Wang et al.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are massive solar eruptions, which have a significant impact on Earth. In this paper, we propose a new method, called DeepCME, to estimate two properties of CMEs, namely, CME mass and kinetic energy. Being able to estimate these properties helps better understand CME dynamics. Our study is based on the CME catalog maintained at the Coordinated Data Analysis Workshops (CDAW) Data Center, which contains all CMEs manually identified since 1996 using the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). We use LASCO C2 data in the period between January 1996 and December 2020 to train, validate and test DeepCME through 10-fold cross validation. The DeepCME method is a fusion of three deep learning models, including ResNet, InceptionNet, and InceptionResNet. Our fusion model extracts features from LASCO C2 images, effectively combining the learning capabilities of the three component models to jointly estimate the mass and kinetic energy of CMEs. Experimental results show that the fusion model yields a mean relative error (MRE) of 0.013 (0.009, respectively) compared to the MRE of 0.019 (0.017, respectively) of the best component model InceptionResNet (InceptionNet, respectively) in estimating the CME mass (kinetic energy, respectively). To our knowledge, this is the first time that deep learning has been used for CME mass and kinetic energy estimations.

Huseyin Cavus, Jason T. L. Wang, Teja P. S. Singampalli et al.

Solar flares are defined as outbursts on the surface of the Sun. They occur when energy accumulated in magnetic fields enclosing solar active regions (ARs) is abruptly expelled. Solar flares and associated coronal mass ejections are sources of space weather that adversely impact devices at or near Earth, including the obstruction of high-frequency radio waves utilized for communication and the deterioration of power grid operations. Tracking and delivering early and precise predictions of solar flares is essential for readiness and catastrophe risk mitigation. This paper employs the random forest (RF) model to address the binary classification task, analyzing the links between solar flares and their originating ARs with observational data gathered from 2011 to 2021 by SolarMonitor.org and the XRT flare database. We seek to identify the physical features of a source AR that significantly influence its potential to trigger >=C-class flares. We found that the features of AR_Type_Today, Hale_Class_Yesterday are the most and the least prepotent features, respectively. NoS_Difference has a remarkable effect in decision-making in both global and local interpretations.

Kangwoo Yi, Bo Shen, Qin Li et al.

Solar Proton Events (SPEs) cause significant radiation hazards to satellites, astronauts, and technological systems. Accurate forecasting of their proton flux time profiles is crucial for early warnings and mitigation. This paper explores deep learning sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) models based on Long Short-Term Memory networks to predict 24-hour proton flux profiles following SPE onsets. We used a dataset of 40 well-connected SPEs (1997-2017) observed by NOAA GOES, each associated with a >=M-class western-hemisphere solar flare and undisturbed proton flux profiles. Using 4-fold stratified cross-validation, we evaluate seq2seq model configurations (varying hidden units and embedding dimensions) under multiple forecasting scenarios: (i) proton-only input vs. combined proton+X-ray input, (ii) original flux data vs. trend-smoothed data, and (iii) autoregressive vs. one-shot forecasting. Our major results are as follows: First, one-shot forecasting consistently yields lower error than autoregressive prediction, avoiding the error accumulation seen in iterative approaches. Second, on the original data, proton-only models outperform proton+X-ray models. However, with trend-smoothed data, this gap narrows or reverses in proton+X-ray models. Third, trend-smoothing significantly enhances the performance of proton+X-ray models by mitigating fluctuations in the X-ray channel. Fourth, while models trained on trendsmoothed data perform best on average, the best-performing model was trained on original data, suggesting that architectural choices can sometimes outweigh the benefits of data preprocessing.

Chenyang Li, Qin Li, Haimin Wang et al.

High-resolution (HR) solar imaging is crucial for capturing fine-scale dynamic features such as filaments and fibrils. However, the spatial resolution of the full-disk H$α$ images is limited and insufficient to resolve these small-scale structures. To address this, we propose a GAN-based superresolution approach to enhance low-resolution (LR) full-disk H$α$ images from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) to a quality comparable with HR observations from the Big Bear Solar Observatory/Goode Solar Telescope (BBSO/GST). We employ Real-ESRGAN with Residual-in-Residual Dense Blocks and a relativistic discriminator. We carefully aligned GONG-GST pairs. The model effectively recovers fine details within sunspot penumbrae and resolves fine details in filaments and fibrils, achieving an average mean squared error (MSE) of 467.15, root mean squared error (RMSE) of 21.59, and cross-correlation (CC) of 0.7794. Slight misalignments between image pairs limit quantitative performance, which we plan to address in future work alongside dataset expansion to further improve reconstruction quality.

Haodi Jiang, Qin Li, Jason T. L. Wang et al.

Solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance plays a crucial role in heating the Earth's ionosphere, thermosphere, and mesosphere, affecting atmospheric dynamics over varying time scales. Although significant effort has been spent studying short-term EUV variations from solar transient events, there is little work to explore the long-term evolution of the EUV flux over multiple solar cycles. Continuous EUV flux measurements have only been available since 1995, leaving significant gaps in earlier data. In this study, we propose a Bayesian deep learning model, named SEMNet, to fill the gaps. We validate our approach by applying SEMNet to construct SOHO/SEM EUV flux measurements in the period between 1998 and 2014 using CaII K images from the Precision Solar Photometric Telescope. We then extend SEMNet through transfer learning to reconstruct solar EUV irradiance in the period between 1950 and 1960 using CaII K images from the Kodaikanal Solar Observatory. Experimental results show that SEMNet provides reliable predictions along with uncertainty bounds, demonstrating the feasibility of CaII K images as a robust proxy for long-term EUV fluxes. These findings contribute to a better understanding of solar influences on Earth's climate over extended periods.

Jialiang Li, Vasyl Yurchyshyn, Jason T. L. Wang et al.

We present a novel deep generative model, named GenMDI, to improve the temporal resolution of line-of-sight (LOS) magnetograms of solar active regions (ARs) collected by the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). Unlike previous studies that focus primarily on spatial super-resolution of MDI magnetograms, our approach can perform temporal super-resolution, which generates and inserts synthetic data between observed MDI magnetograms, thus providing finer temporal structure and enhanced details in the LOS data. The GenMDI model employs a conditional diffusion process, which synthesizes images by considering both preceding and subsequent magnetograms, ensuring that the generated images are not only of high-quality, but also temporally coherent with the surrounding data. Experimental results show that the GenMDI model performs better than the traditional linear interpolation method, especially in ARs with dynamic evolution in magnetic fields.

Hongyang Zhang, Ju Jing, Jason T. L. Wang et al.

We present a transformer model, named DeepHalo, to predict the occurrence of halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Our model takes as input an active region (AR) and a profile, where the profile contains a time series of data samples in the AR that are collected 24 hours before the beginning of a day, and predicts whether the AR would produce a halo CME during that day. Each data sample contains physical parameters, or features, derived from photospheric vector magnetic field data taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). We survey and match CME events in the Space Weather Database Of Notification, Knowledge, Information (DONKI) and Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) CME Catalog, and compile a list of CMEs including halo CMEs and non-halo CMEs associated with ARs in the period between November 2010 and August 2023. We use the information gathered above to build the labels (positive versus negative) of the data samples and profiles at hand, where the labels are needed for machine learning. Experimental results show that DeepHalo with a true skill statistics (TSS) score of 0.907 outperforms a closely related long short-term memory network with a TSS score of 0.821. To our knowledge, this is the first time that the transformer model has been used for halo CME prediction.

Khalid A. Alobaid, Jason T. L. Wang, Haimin Wang et al.

The application of machine learning to the study of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their impacts on Earth has seen significant growth recently. Understanding and forecasting CME geoeffectiveness is crucial for protecting infrastructure in space and ensuring the resilience of technological systems on Earth. Here we present GeoCME, a deep-learning framework designed to predict, deterministically or probabilistically, whether a CME event that arrives at Earth will cause a geomagnetic storm. A geomagnetic storm is defined as a disturbance of the Earth's magnetosphere during which the minimum Dst index value is less than -50 nT. GeoCME is trained on observations from the instruments including LASCO C2, EIT and MDI on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), focusing on a dataset that includes 136 halo/partial halo CMEs in Solar Cycle 23. Using ensemble and transfer learning techniques, GeoCME is capable of extracting features hidden in the SOHO observations and making predictions based on the learned features. Our experimental results demonstrate the good performance of GeoCME, achieving a Matthew's correlation coefficient of 0.807 and a true skill statistics score of 0.714 when the tool is used as a deterministic prediction model. When the tool is used as a probabilistic forecasting model, it achieves a Brier score of 0.094 and a Brier skill score of 0.493. These results are promising, showing that the proposed GeoCME can help enhance our understanding of CME-triggered solar-terrestrial interactions.

Yasser Abduallah, Jason T. L. Wang, Yucong Shen et al.

The Earth's primary source of energy is the radiant energy generated by the Sun, which is referred to as solar irradiance, or total solar irradiance (TSI) when all of the radiation is measured. A minor change in the solar irradiance can have a significant impact on the Earth's climate and atmosphere. As a result, studying and measuring solar irradiance is crucial in understanding climate changes and solar variability. Several methods have been developed to reconstruct total solar irradiance for long and short periods of time; however, they are physics-based and rely on the availability of data, which does not go beyond 9,000 years. In this paper we propose a new method, called TSInet, to reconstruct total solar irradiance by deep learning for short and long periods of time that span beyond the physical models' data availability. On the data that are available, our method agrees well with the state-of-the-art physics-based reconstruction models. To our knowledge, this is the first time that deep learning has been used to reconstruct total solar irradiance for more than 9,000 years.

Haodi Jiang, Ju Jing, Jiasheng Wang et al.

We present a new deep learning method, dubbed FibrilNet, for tracing chromospheric fibrils in Halpha images of solar observations. Our method consists of a data pre-processing component that prepares training data from a threshold-based tool, a deep learning model implemented as a Bayesian convolutional neural network for probabilistic image segmentation with uncertainty quantification to predict fibrils, and a post-processing component containing a fibril-fitting algorithm to determine fibril orientations. The FibrilNet tool is applied to high-resolution Halpha images from an active region (AR 12665) collected by the 1.6 m Goode Solar Telescope (GST) equipped with high-order adaptive optics at the Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO). We quantitatively assess the FibrilNet tool, comparing its image segmentation algorithm and fibril-fitting algorithm with those employed by the threshold-based tool. Our experimental results and major findings are summarized as follows. First, the image segmentation results (i.e., detected fibrils) of the two tools are quite similar, demonstrating the good learning capability of FibrilNet. Second, FibrilNet finds more accurate and smoother fibril orientation angles than the threshold-based tool. Third, FibrilNet is faster than the threshold-based tool and the uncertainty maps produced by FibrilNet not only provide a quantitative way to measure the confidence on each detected fibril, but also help identify fibril structures that are not detected by the threshold-based tool but are inferred through machine learning. Finally, we apply FibrilNet to full-disk Halpha images from other solar observatories and additional high-resolution Halpha images collected by BBSO/GST, demonstrating the tool's usability in diverse datasets.

Yasser Abduallah, Jason T. L. Wang, Yang Nie et al.

Solar flare prediction plays an important role in understanding and forecasting space weather. The main goal of the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), one of the instruments on NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory, is to study the origin of solar variability and characterize the Sun's magnetic activity. HMI provides continuous full-disk observations of the solar vector magnetic field with high cadence data that lead to reliable predictive capability; yet, solar flare prediction effort utilizing these data is still limited. In this paper, we present a machine-learning-as-a-service (MLaaS) framework, called DeepSun, for predicting solar flares on the Web based on HMI's data products. Specifically, we construct training data by utilizing the physical parameters provided by the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) and categorize solar flares into four classes, namely B, C, M, X, according to the X-ray flare catalogs available at the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Thus, the solar flare prediction problem at hand is essentially a multi-class (i.e., four-class) classification problem. The DeepSun system employs several machine learning algorithms to tackle this multi-class prediction problem and provides an application programming interface (API) for remote programming users. To our knowledge, DeepSun is the first MLaaS tool capable of predicting solar flares through the Internet.

Haodi Jiang, Jiasheng Wang, Chang Liu et al.

Deep learning has drawn a lot of interest in recent years due to its effectiveness in processing big and complex observational data gathered from diverse instruments. Here we propose a new deep learning method, called SolarUnet, to identify and track solar magnetic flux elements or features in observed vector magnetograms based on the Southwest Automatic Magnetic Identification Suite (SWAMIS). Our method consists of a data pre-processing component that prepares training data from the SWAMIS tool, a deep learning model implemented as a U-shaped convolutional neural network for fast and accurate image segmentation, and a post-processing component that prepares tracking results. SolarUnet is applied to data from the 1.6 meter Goode Solar Telescope at the Big Bear Solar Observatory. When compared to the widely used SWAMIS tool, SolarUnet is faster while agreeing mostly with SWAMIS on feature size and flux distributions, and complementing SWAMIS in tracking long-lifetime features. Thus, the proposed physics-guided deep learning-based tool can be considered as an alternative method for solar magnetic tracking.

Gelu Nita, Manolis Georgoulis, Irina Kitiashvili et al.

The authors of this white paper met on 16-17 January 2020 at the New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, NJ, for a 2-day workshop that brought together a group of heliophysicists, data providers, expert modelers, and computer/data scientists. Their objective was to discuss critical developments and prospects of the application of machine and/or deep learning techniques for data analysis, modeling and forecasting in Heliophysics, and to shape a strategy for further developments in the field. The workshop combined a set of plenary sessions featuring invited introductory talks interleaved with a set of open discussion sessions. The outcome of the discussion is encapsulated in this white paper that also features a top-level list of recommendations agreed by participants.

Hao Liu, Yan Xu, Jiasheng Wang et al.

We propose a new machine learning approach to Stokes inversion based on a convolutional neural network (CNN) and the Milne-Eddington (ME) method. The Stokes measurements used in this study were taken by the Near InfraRed Imaging Spectropolarimeter (NIRIS) on the 1.6 m Goode Solar Telescope (GST) at the Big Bear Solar Observatory. By learning the latent patterns in the training data prepared by the physics-based ME tool, the proposed CNN method is able to infer vector magnetic fields from the Stokes profiles of GST/NIRIS. Experimental results show that our CNN method produces smoother and cleaner magnetic maps than the widely used ME method. Furthermore, the CNN method is 4~6 times faster than the ME method, and is able to produce vector magnetic fields in near real-time, which is essential to space weather forecasting. Specifically, it takes ~50 seconds for the CNN method to process an image of 720 x 720 pixels comprising Stokes profiles of GST/NIRIS. Finally, the CNN-inferred results are highly correlated to the ME-calculated results and are closer to the ME's results with the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (PPMCC) being closer to 1 on average than those from other machine learning algorithms such as multiple support vector regression and multilayer perceptrons (MLP). In particular, the CNN method outperforms the current best machine learning method (MLP) by 2.6% on average in PPMCC according to our experimental study. Thus, the proposed physics-assisted deep learning-based CNN tool can be considered as an alternative, efficient method for Stokes inversion for high resolution polarimetric observations obtained by GST/NIRIS.

Hao Liu, Chang Liu, Jason T. L. Wang et al.

We present two recurrent neural networks (RNNs), one based on gated recurrent units and the other based on long short-term memory, for predicting whether an active region (AR) that produces an M- or X-class flare will also produce a coronal mass ejection (CME). We model data samples in an AR as time series and use the RNNs to capture temporal information of the data samples. Each data sample has 18 physical parameters, or features, derived from photospheric vector magnetic field data taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). We survey M- and X-class flares that occurred from 2010 May to 2019 May using the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite's X-ray flare catalogs provided by the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), and select those flares with identified ARs in the NCEI catalogs. In addition, we extract the associations of flares and CMEs from the Space Weather Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (DONKI). We use the information gathered above to build the labels (positive versus negative) of the data samples at hand. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our RNNs over closely related machine learning methods in predicting the labels of the data samples. We also discuss an extension of our approach to predict a probabilistic estimate of how likely an M- or X-class flare will initiate a CME, with good performance results. To our knowledge this is the first time that RNNs have been used for CME prediction.

Hao Liu, Chang Liu, Jason T. L. Wang et al.

We present a long short-term memory (LSTM) network for predicting whether an active region (AR) would produce a gamma-class flare within the next 24 hours. We consider three gamma classes, namely >=M5.0 class, >=M class, and >=C class, and build three LSTM models separately, each corresponding to a gamma class. Each LSTM model is used to make predictions of its corresponding gamma-class flares. The essence of our approach is to model data samples in an AR as time series and use LSTMs to capture temporal information of the data samples. Each data sample has 40 features including 25 magnetic parameters obtained from the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) and related data products as well as 15 flare history parameters. We survey the flare events that occurred from 2010 May to 2018 May, using the GOES X-ray flare catalogs provided by the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), and select flares with identified ARs in the NCEI flare catalogs. These flare events are used to build the labels (positive vs. negative) of the data samples. Experimental results show that (i) using only 14-22 most important features including both flare history and magnetic parameters can achieve better performance than using all the 40 features together; (ii) our LSTM network outperforms related machine learning methods in predicting the labels of the data samples. To our knowledge, this is the first time that LSTMs have been used for solar flare prediction.