Yong-Jae Moon

Kangwoo Yi, Bo Shen, Qin Li et al.

Solar Proton Events (SPEs) cause significant radiation hazards to satellites, astronauts, and technological systems. Accurate forecasting of their proton flux time profiles is crucial for early warnings and mitigation. This paper explores deep learning sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) models based on Long Short-Term Memory networks to predict 24-hour proton flux profiles following SPE onsets. We used a dataset of 40 well-connected SPEs (1997-2017) observed by NOAA GOES, each associated with a >=M-class western-hemisphere solar flare and undisturbed proton flux profiles. Using 4-fold stratified cross-validation, we evaluate seq2seq model configurations (varying hidden units and embedding dimensions) under multiple forecasting scenarios: (i) proton-only input vs. combined proton+X-ray input, (ii) original flux data vs. trend-smoothed data, and (iii) autoregressive vs. one-shot forecasting. Our major results are as follows: First, one-shot forecasting consistently yields lower error than autoregressive prediction, avoiding the error accumulation seen in iterative approaches. Second, on the original data, proton-only models outperform proton+X-ray models. However, with trend-smoothed data, this gap narrows or reverses in proton+X-ray models. Third, trend-smoothing significantly enhances the performance of proton+X-ray models by mitigating fluctuations in the X-ray channel. Fourth, while models trained on trendsmoothed data perform best on average, the best-performing model was trained on original data, suggesting that architectural choices can sometimes outweigh the benefits of data preprocessing.

Hyun-Jin Jeong, Yong-Jae Moon, Eunsu Park et al.

Solar magnetic fields play a key role in understanding the nature of the coronal phenomena. Global coronal magnetic fields are usually extrapolated from photospheric fields, for which farside data is taken when it was at the frontside, about two weeks earlier. For the first time we have constructed the extrapolations of global magnetic fields using frontside and artificial intelligence (AI)-generated farside magnetic fields at a near-real time basis. We generate the farside magnetograms from three channel farside observations of Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) Ahead (A) and Behind (B) by our deep learning model trained with frontside Solar Dynamics Observatory extreme ultraviolet images and magnetograms. For frontside testing data sets, we demonstrate that the generated magnetic field distributions are consistent with the real ones; not only active regions (ARs), but also quiet regions of the Sun. We make global magnetic field synchronic maps in which conventional farside data are replaced by farside ones generated by our model. The synchronic maps show much better not only the appearance of ARs but also the disappearance of others on the solar surface than before. We use these synchronized magnetic data to extrapolate the global coronal fields using Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) model. We show that our results are much more consistent with coronal observations than those of the conventional method in view of solar active regions and coronal holes. We present several positive prospects of our new methodology for the study of solar corona, heliosphere, and space weather.