Manuela Veloso

Uljad Berdica, Fernando Acero, Anton Ipsen et al.

We study Contextual Multi-Armed Bandits (CMABs) for non-episodic sequential decision making problems where the context includes both textual and numerical information (e.g., recommendation systems, dynamic portfolio adjustments, offer selection; all frequent problems in finance). While Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to these settings, utilizing LLMs for reasoning at every decision step is computationally expensive and uncertainty estimates are difficult to obtain. To address this, we introduce LLMP-UCB, a bandit algorithm that derives uncertainty estimates from LLMs via repeated inference. However, our experiments demonstrate that lightweight numerical bandits operating on text embeddings (dense or Matryoshka) match or exceed the accuracy of LLM-based solutions at a fraction of their cost. We further show that embedding dimensionality is a practical lever on the exploration-exploitation balance, enabling cost--performance tradeoffs without prompt complexity. Finally, to guide practitioners, we propose a geometric diagnostic based on the arms' embedding to decide when to use LLM-driven reasoning versus a lightweight numerical bandit. Our results provide a principled deployment framework for cost-effective, uncertainty-aware decision systems with broad applicability across AI use cases in financial services.

Jabez Magomere, Elena Kochkina, Samuel Mensah et al.

Complex claim verification requires decomposing sentences into verifiable subclaims, yet existing methods struggle to align decomposition quality with verification performance. We propose a reinforcement learning (RL) approach that jointly optimizes decomposition quality and verifier alignment using Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). Our method integrates: (i) structured sequential reasoning; (ii) supervised finetuning on teacher-distilled exemplars; and (iii) a multi-objective reward balancing format compliance, verifier alignment, and decomposition quality. Across six evaluation settings, our trained 8B decomposer improves downstream verification performance to (71.75%) macro-F1, outperforming prompt-based approaches ((+1.99), (+6.24)) and existing RL methods ((+5.84)). Human evaluation confirms the high quality of the generated subclaims. Our framework enables smaller language models to achieve state-of-the-art claim verification by jointly optimising for verification accuracy and decomposition quality.

Tom Bewley, Salim I. Amoukou, Emanuele Albini et al.

Changes in input distribution can induce shifts in the average predictions of machine learning models. Such prediction shifts may impact downstream business outcomes (e.g. a bank's loan approval rate), so understanding their causes can be crucial. We propose \ours{}: a Shapley value method for attributing prediction shifts to changes in the conditional probabilities of interpretable subgroups of data, where these subgroups are defined by the structure of decision trees. We initially apply this method to single decision trees, providing exact explanations based on conditional probability changes at split nodes. Next, we extend it to tree ensembles by selecting the most explanatory tree and accounting for residual effects. Finally, we propose a model-agnostic variant using surrogate trees grown with a novel objective function, allowing application to models like neural networks. While exact computation can be intensive, approximation techniques enable practical application. We show that \ours{} provides simple, faithful, and near-complete explanations of prediction shifts across model classes, aiding model monitoring in dynamic environments.