Archana Vaidheeswaran

Shubh Laddha, Lucas Changbencharoen, Win Kuptivej et al.

Model Context Protocol (MCP) servers contain a collection of thousands of open-source standardized tools, linking LLMs to external systems; however, existing datasets and benchmarks lack realistic, human-like user queries, remaining a critical gap in evaluating the tool usage and ecosystems of MCP servers. Existing datasets often do contain tool descriptions but fail to represent how different users portray their requests, leading to poor generalization and inflated reliability of certain benchmarks. This paper introduces the first large-scale MCP dataset featuring diverse, high-quality diverse user queries generated specifically to match 2800 tools across 308 MCP servers, developing on the MCP Zero dataset. Each tool is paired with multiple unique user personas that we have generated, to capture varying levels of user intent ranging from precise task requests, and ambiguous, exploratory commands, reflecting the complexity of real-world interaction patterns.

James Begin, Brendan Gho, Suman Muppavarapu et al.

Prediction markets rest on the independence of participant errors. As LLM agents become active traders on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, we ask: does this independence hold when the crowd is composed of LLMs? We find it does not. LLM agents fine-tuned with Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) share a convergent output distribution, producing pairwise error correlations of $ρ= 0.70$ and reducing ten agents to the effective forecasting power of ${\approx}1.4$ independent forecasters $N_{\text{eff}}$. This is not a scaling problem: $N_{\text{eff}}$ remains flat from $N=5$ to $N=40$, and the 10-agent market (67.6%) fails to match a single standalone agent (70.2%). Two controlled ablations isolate preference optimization as the causal driver, replicated across labs and scales ($Δρ= +0.24$ to $+0.46$ on identical-SFT controls at 8B and 70B). Among mitigations tested, cross-model diversity achieves the largest correlation reduction ($ρ$ from 0.68 to 0.40). As LLMs become more aligned, markets built from them become more monocultural.