Bora Kargi

Bora Kargi, David Salinas

Evaluating new large language models typically requires costly human annotation campaigns at scale. LLM-as-a-judge offers a cheaper alternative, but judge scores carry systematic errors - such as position bias, self-preference, or intransitivity - that can strongly miscalibrate the resulting rankings. We quantify the resulting judge-human disagreement at two complementary levels. At the local level, we estimate per-battle uncertainty from the judge's own score differences by propagating calibrated win probabilities rather than hard labels into the Bradley-Terry procedure. This alone provides a drastic improvement to Elo estimation accuracy, bringing LLM-derived ratings within 17.9 Elo MAE of human-derived ones when averaged over 55 held-out models on LMArena. At the global level, we apply split conformal prediction to the residual gap between LLM-derived and human-derived Elo ratings across held-out models, producing prediction intervals with distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees that account for irreducible LLM-human disagreement. Together, these two layers yield a low-cost evaluation tool that provides developers with calibrated Elo estimates and honest uncertainty bounds, without access to large-scale human annotations.To facilitate reproducibility, we release our code at https://github.com/kargibora/SoftElo .

Bora Kargi, Arnas Uselis, Seong Joon Oh

When a text description is extended with an additional detail, image-text similarity should drop if that detail is wrong. We show that CLIP-style dual encoders often violate this intuition: appending a plausible but incorrect object or relation to an otherwise correct description can increase the similarity score. We call such cases half-truths. On COCO, CLIP prefers the correct shorter description only 40.6% of the time, and performance drops to 32.9% when the added detail is a relation. We trace this vulnerability to weak supervision on caption parts: contrastive training aligns full sentences but does not explicitly enforce that individual entities and relations are grounded. We propose CS-CLIP (Component-Supervised CLIP), which decomposes captions into entity and relation units, constructs a minimally edited foil for each unit, and fine-tunes the model to score the correct unit above its foil while preserving standard dual-encoder inference. CS-CLIP raises half-truth accuracy to 69.3% and improves average performance on established compositional benchmarks by 5.7 points, suggesting that reducing half-truth errors aligns with broader gains in compositional understanding. Code is publicly available at: https://github.com/kargibora/CS-CLIP