Matthias Hertel

Matthias Hertel, Maximilian Beichter, Benedikt Heidrich et al.

In the smart grid of the future, accurate load forecasts on the level of individual clients can help to balance supply and demand locally and to prevent grid outages. While the number of monitored clients will increase with the ongoing smart meter rollout, the amount of data per client will always be limited. We evaluate whether a Transformer load forecasting model benefits from a transfer learning strategy, where a global univariate model is trained on the load time series from multiple clients. In experiments with two datasets containing load time series from several hundred clients, we find that the global training strategy is superior to the multivariate and local training strategies used in related work. On average, the global training strategy results in 21.8% and 12.8% lower forecasting errors than the two other strategies, measured across forecasting horizons from one day to one month into the future. A comparison to linear models, multi-layer perceptrons and LSTMs shows that Transformers are effective for load forecasting when they are trained with the global training strategy.

Hannah Bast, Matthias Hertel, Natalie Prange

We present Elevant, a tool for the fully automatic fine-grained evaluation of a set of entity linkers on a set of benchmarks. Elevant provides an automatic breakdown of the performance by various error categories and by entity type. Elevant also provides a rich and compact, yet very intuitive and self-explanatory visualization of the results of a linker on a benchmark in comparison to the ground truth. A live demo, the link to the complete code base on GitHub and a link to a demo video are provided under https://elevant.cs.uni-freiburg.de .

Manuel Treutlein, Marc Schmidt, Roman Hahn et al.

Distribution system operators (DSOs) must cope with new challenges such as the reconstruction of distribution grids along climate neutrality pathways or the ability to manage and control consumption and generation in the grid. In order to meet the challenges, measurements within the distribution grid often form the basis for DSOs. Hence, it is an urgent problem that measurement devices are not installed in many low-voltage (LV) grids. In order to overcome this problem, we present an approach to estimate pseudo-measurements for non-measured LV feeders based on the metadata of the respective feeder using regression models. The feeder metadata comprise information about the number of grid connection points, the installed power of consumers and producers, and billing data in the downstream LV grid. Additionally, we use weather data, calendar data and timestamp information as model features. The existing measurements are used as model target. We extensively evaluate the estimated pseudo-measurements on a large real-world dataset with 2,323 LV feeders characterized by both consumption and feed-in. For this purpose, we introduce peak metrics inspired by the BigDEAL challenge for the peak magnitude, timing and shape for both consumption and feed-in. As regression models, we use XGBoost, a multilayer perceptron (MLP) and a linear regression (LR). We observe that XGBoost and MLP outperform the LR. Furthermore, the results show that the approach adapts to different weather, calendar and timestamp conditions and produces realistic load curves based on the feeder metadata. In the future, the approach can be adapted to other grid levels like substation transformers and can supplement research fields like load modeling, state estimation and LV load forecasting.

Matthias Hertel, Sebastian Pütz, Ralf Mikut et al.

Time-series forecasts are essential for planning and decision-making in many domains. Explainability is key to building user trust and meeting transparency requirements. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) is a popular explainable AI framework, but it lacks efficient implementations for time series and often assumes feature independence when sampling counterfactuals. We introduce SHAPformer, an accurate, fast and sampling-free explainable time-series forecasting model based on the Transformer architecture. It leverages attention manipulation to make predictions based on feature subsets. SHAPformer generates explanations in under one second, several orders of magnitude faster than the SHAP Permutation Explainer. On synthetic data with ground truth explanations, SHAPformer provides explanations that are true to the data. Applied to real-world electrical load data, it achieves competitive predictive performance and delivers meaningful local and global insights, such as identifying the past load as the key predictor and revealing a distinct model behavior during the Christmas period.

Hannah Bast, Matthias Hertel, Natalie Prange

Existing evaluations of entity linking systems often say little about how the system is going to perform for a particular application. There are two fundamental reasons for this. One is that many evaluations only use aggregate measures (like precision, recall, and F1 score), without a detailed error analysis or a closer look at the results. The other is that all of the widely used benchmarks have strong biases and artifacts, in particular: a strong focus on named entities, an unclear or missing specification of what else counts as an entity mention, poor handling of ambiguities, and an over- or underrepresentation of certain kinds of entities. We provide a more meaningful and fair in-depth evaluation of a variety of existing end-to-end entity linkers. We characterize their strengths and weaknesses and also report on reproducibility aspects. The detailed results of our evaluation can be inspected under https://elevant.cs.uni-freiburg.de/emnlp2023 . Our evaluation is based on several widely used benchmarks, which exhibit the problems mentioned above to various degrees, as well as on two new benchmarks, which address the problems mentioned above. The new benchmarks can be found under https://github.com/ad-freiburg/fair-entity-linking-benchmarks .

Matthias Hertel, Alexandra Nikoltchovska, Sebastian Pütz et al.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently emerged as general-purpose forecasting models and show considerable potential for applications in energy systems. However, applications in critical infrastructure like power grids require transparency to ensure trust and reliability and cannot rely on pure black-box models. To enhance the transparency of TSFMs, we propose an efficient algorithm for computing Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) tailored to these models. The proposed approach leverages the flexibility of TSFMs with respect to input context length and provided covariates. This property enables efficient temporal and covariate masking (selectively withholding inputs), allowing for a scalable explanation of model predictions using SHAP. We evaluate two TSFMs - Chronos-2 and TabPFN-TS - on a day-ahead load forecasting task for a transmission system operator (TSO). In a zero-shot setting, both models achieve predictive performance competitive with a Transformer model trained specifically on multiple years of TSO data. The explanations obtained through our proposed approach align with established domain knowledge, particularly as the TSFMs appropriately use weather and calendar information for load prediction. Overall, we demonstrate that TSFMs can serve as transparent and reliable tools for operational energy forecasting.

Max Kleinebrahm, Jonathan Berrisch, Philipp Eiser et al.

Energy forecasting research faces a persistent comparability gap that makes it difficult to measure consistent progress over time. Reported accuracy gains are often not directly comparable because models are evaluated under study-specific datasets, time periods, information sets, and scoring setups, while widely used benchmarks and competition datasets are typically tied to fixed historical windows. This paper introduces the Energy-Arena, a dynamic benchmarking platform for operational energy time series forecasting that provides a continuously updated reference point as energy systems evolve. The platform operates as an open, API-based submission system and standardizes challenge definitions and submission deadlines aligned with operational constraints. Performance is reported on rolling evaluation windows via persistent leaderboards. By moving from retrospective backtesting to forward-looking benchmarking, the Energy-Arena enforces standardized ex-ante submission and ex-post evaluation, thereby improving transparency by preventing information leakage and retroactive tuning. The platform is publicly available at Energy-Arena.org.

Hannah Bast, Matthias Hertel, Mostafa M. Mohamed

We consider the following tokenization repair problem: Given a natural language text with any combination of missing or spurious spaces, correct these. Spelling errors can be present, but it's not part of the problem to correct them. For example, given: "Tispa per isabout token izaionrep air", compute "Tis paper is about tokenizaion repair". We identify three key ingredients of high-quality tokenization repair, all missing from previous work: deep language models with a bidirectional component, training the models on text with spelling errors, and making use of the space information already present. Our methods also improve existing spell checkers by fixing not only more tokenization errors but also more spelling errors: once it is clear which characters form a word, it is much easier for them to figure out the correct word. We provide six benchmarks that cover three use cases (OCR errors, text extraction from PDF, human errors) and the cases of partially correct space information and all spaces missing. We evaluate our methods against the best existing methods and a non-trivial baseline. We provide full reproducibility under https://ad.cs.uni-freiburg.de/publications .