Charis Stamouli

Charis Stamouli, Anastasios Tsiamis, George J. Pappas

Layered control is essential for managing complexity in large-scale systems, employing progressively coarser models at higher layers. While significant advances have been made for fully observable systems, the theoretical foundations of layered control under partial observations and stochastic noise remain underexplored. To address this gap, we propose a principled layered control framework for such settings. Given a state estimator at each layer, our approach ensures that the expected output distance between systems at successive layers remains within a priori computable bounds. This is achieved by introducing a novel notion of stochastic simulation functions for partially observed systems. For the class of linear systems with Kalman estimators, we provide a systematic construction of these functions along with the corresponding control design. We demonstrate our framework on two aerial robotic scenarios: an unmanned aerial vehicle and a hexacopter with a camera payload.

Vasiliki Tassopoulou, Charis Stamouli, Haochang Shou et al.

Despite recent progress in predicting biomarker trajectories from real clinical data, uncertainty in the predictions poses high-stakes risks (e.g., misdiagnosis) that limit their clinical deployment. To enable safe and reliable use of such predictions in healthcare, we introduce a conformal method for uncertainty-calibrated prediction of biomarker trajectories resulting from randomly-timed clinical visits of patients. Our approach extends conformal prediction to the setting of randomly-timed trajectories via a novel nonconformity score that produces prediction bands guaranteed to cover the unknown biomarker trajectories with a user-prescribed probability. We apply our method across a wide range of standard and state-of-the-art predictors for two well-established brain biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease, using neuroimaging data from real clinical studies. We observe that our conformal prediction bands consistently achieve the desired coverage, while also being tighter than baseline prediction bands. To further account for population heterogeneity, we develop group-conditional conformal bands and test their coverage guarantees across various demographic and clinically relevant subpopulations. Moreover, we demonstrate the clinical utility of our conformal bands in identifying subjects at high risk of progression to Alzheimer's disease. Specifically, we introduce an uncertainty-calibrated risk score that enables the identification of 17.5% more high-risk subjects compared to standard risk scores, highlighting the value of uncertainty calibration in real-world clinical decision making. Our code is available at github.com/vatass/ConformalBiomarkerTrajectories.

Charis Stamouli, Ingvar Ziemann, George J. Pappas

We study the quadratic prediction error method -- i.e., nonlinear least squares -- for a class of time-varying parametric predictor models satisfying a certain identifiability condition. While this method is known to asymptotically achieve the optimal rate for a wide range of problems, there have been no non-asymptotic results matching these optimal rates outside of a select few, typically linear, model classes. By leveraging modern tools from learning with dependent data, we provide the first rate-optimal non-asymptotic analysis of this method for our more general setting of nonlinearly parametrized model classes. Moreover, we show that our results can be applied to a particular class of identifiable AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, resulting in the first optimal non-asymptotic rates for identification of ARMA models.