Joseph Ramsey

Yujia Zheng, Biwei Huang, Wei Chen et al.

Causal discovery aims at revealing causal relations from observational data, which is a fundamental task in science and engineering. We describe $\textit{causal-learn}$, an open-source Python library for causal discovery. This library focuses on bringing a comprehensive collection of causal discovery methods to both practitioners and researchers. It provides easy-to-use APIs for non-specialists, modular building blocks for developers, detailed documentation for learners, and comprehensive methods for all. Different from previous packages in R or Java, $\textit{causal-learn}$ is fully developed in Python, which could be more in tune with the recent preference shift in programming languages within related communities. The library is available at https://github.com/py-why/causal-learn.

Wai-Yin Lam, Bryan Andrews, Joseph Ramsey

There has been an increasing interest in methods that exploit permutation reasoning to search for directed acyclic causal models, including the "Ordering Search" of Teyssier and Kohler and GSP of Solus, Wang and Uhler. We extend the methods of the latter by a permutation-based operation, tuck, and develop a class of algorithms, namely GRaSP, that are efficient and pointwise consistent under increasingly weaker assumptions than faithfulness. The most relaxed form of GRaSP outperforms many state-of-the-art causal search algorithms in simulation, allowing efficient and accurate search even for dense graphs and graphs with more than 100 variables.

Bryan Andrews, Joseph Ramsey, Ruben Sanchez-Romero et al.

Learning graphical conditional independence structures is an important machine learning problem and a cornerstone of causal discovery. However, the accuracy and execution time of learning algorithms generally struggle to scale to problems with hundreds of highly connected variables -- for instance, recovering brain networks from fMRI data. We introduce the best order score search (BOSS) and grow-shrink trees (GSTs) for learning directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) in this paradigm. BOSS greedily searches over permutations of variables, using GSTs to construct and score DAGs from permutations. GSTs efficiently cache scores to eliminate redundant calculations. BOSS achieves state-of-the-art performance in accuracy and execution time, comparing favorably to a variety of combinatorial and gradient-based learning algorithms under a broad range of conditions. To demonstrate its practicality, we apply BOSS to two sets of resting-state fMRI data: simulated data with pseudo-empirical noise distributions derived from randomized empirical fMRI cortical signals and clinical data from 3T fMRI scans processed into cortical parcels. BOSS is available for use within the TETRAD project which includes Python and R wrappers.

Harry Desmond, Joseph Ramsey

Data-driven astrophysics currently relies on the detection and characterisation of correlations between objects' properties, which are then used to test physical theories that make predictions for them. This process fails to utilise information in the data that forms a crucial part of the theories' predictions, namely which variables are directly correlated (as opposed to accidentally correlated through others), the directions of these determinations, and the presence or absence of confounders that correlate variables in the dataset but are themselves absent from it. We propose to recover this information through causal discovery, a well-developed methodology for inferring the causal structure of datasets that is however almost entirely unknown to astrophysics. We develop a causal discovery algorithm suitable for large astrophysical datasets and illustrate it on $\sim$5$\times10^5$ low-redshift galaxies from the Nasa Sloan Atlas, demonstrating its ability to distinguish physical mechanisms that are degenerate on the basis of correlations alone.

Joseph Ramsey, Bryan Andrews, Peter Spirtes

Learning graphical conditional independence structures from nonlinear, continuous or mixed data is a central challenge in machine learning and the sciences, and many existing methods struggle to scale to thousands of samples or hundreds of variables. We introduce two basis-expansion tools for scalable causal discovery. First, the Basis Function BIC (BF-BIC) score uses truncated additive expansions to approximate nonlinear dependencies. BF-BIC is theoretically consistent under additive models and extends to post-nonlinear (PNL) models via an invertible reparameterization. It remains robust under moderate interactions and supports mixed data through a degenerate-Gaussian embedding for discrete variables. In simulations with fully nonlinear neural causal models (NCMs), BF-BIC outperforms kernel- and constraint-based methods (e.g., KCI, RFCI) in both accuracy and runtime. Second, the Basis Function Likelihood Ratio Test (BF-LRT) provides an approximate conditional independence test that is substantially faster than kernel tests while retaining competitive accuracy. Extensive simulations and a real-data application to Canadian wildfire risk show that, when integrated into hybrid searches, BF-based methods enable interpretable and scalable causal discovery. Implementations are available in Python, R, and Java.

Joseph Ramsey, Bryan Andrews, Peter Spirtes

Learning causal structure from observational data is especially challenging when latent variables or selection bias are present. The Fast Causal Inference (FCI) algorithm addresses this setting but performs exhaustive conditional independence tests across many subsets, often leading to spurious independences, missing or extra edges, and unreliable orientations. We present a family of score-guided mixed-strategy causal search algorithms that extend this framework. First, we introduce BOSS-FCI and GRaSP-FCI, variants of GFCI (Greedy Fast Causal Inference) that substitute BOSS (Best Order Score Search) or GRaSP (Greedy Relaxations of Sparsest Permutation) for FGES (Fast Greedy Equivalence Search), preserving correctness while trading off scalability and conservativeness. Second, we develop FCI Targeted-Testing (FCIT), a novel hybrid method that replaces exhaustive testing with targeted, score-informed tests guided by BOSS. FCIT guarantees well-formed PAGs and achieves higher precision and efficiency across sample sizes. Finally, we propose a lightweight heuristic, LV-Dumb (Latent Variable "Dumb"), which returns the PAG of the BOSS DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph). Though not strictly sound for latent confounding, LV-Dumb often matches FCIT's accuracy while running substantially faster. Simulations and real-data analyses show that BOSS-FCI and GRaSP-FCI provide robust baselines, FCIT yields the best balance of precision and reliability, and LV-Dumb offers a fast, near-equivalent alternative. Together, these methods demonstrate that targeted and score-guided strategies can dramatically improve the efficiency and correctness of latent-variable causal discovery.

Anne Helby Petersen, Joseph Ramsey, Claus Thorn Ekstrøm et al.

Causal inference can estimate causal effects, but unless data are collected experimentally, statistical analyses must rely on pre-specified causal models. Causal discovery algorithms are empirical methods for constructing such causal models from data. Several asymptotically correct methods already exist, but they generally struggle on smaller samples. Moreover, most methods focus on very sparse causal models, which may not always be a realistic representation of real-life data generating mechanisms. Finally, while causal relationships suggested by the methods often hold true, their claims about causal non-relatedness have high error rates. This non-conservative error tradeoff is not ideal for observational sciences, where the resulting model is directly used to inform causal inference: A causal model with many missing causal relations entails too strong assumptions and may lead to biased effect estimates. We propose a new causal discovery method that addresses these three shortcomings: Supervised learning discovery (SLdisco). SLdisco uses supervised machine learning to obtain a mapping from observational data to equivalence classes of causal models. We evaluate SLdisco in a large simulation study based on Gaussian data and we consider several choices of model size and sample size. We find that SLdisco is more conservative, only moderately less informative and less sensitive towards sample size than existing procedures. We furthermore provide a real epidemiological data application. We use random subsampling to investigate real data performance on small samples and again find that SLdisco is less sensitive towards sample size and hence seems to better utilize the information available in small datasets.

Wei Chen, Kun Zhang, Ruichu Cai et al.

We consider the problem of estimating a particular type of linear non-Gaussian model. Without resorting to the overcomplete Independent Component Analysis (ICA), we show that under some mild assumptions, the model is uniquely identified by a hybrid method. Our method leverages the advantages of constraint-based methods and independent noise-based methods to handle both confounded and unconfounded situations. The first step of our method uses the FCI procedure, which allows confounders and is able to produce asymptotically correct results. The results, unfortunately, usually determine very few unconfounded direct causal relations, because whenever it is possible to have a confounder, it will indicate it. The second step of our procedure finds the unconfounded causal edges between observed variables among only those adjacent pairs informed by the FCI results. By making use of the so-called Triad condition, the third step is able to find confounders and their causal relations with other variables. Afterward, we apply ICA on a notably smaller set of graphs to identify remaining causal relationships if needed. Extensive experiments on simulated data and real-world data validate the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Biwei Huang, Kun Zhang, Jiji Zhang et al.

It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper, we develop a framework for causal discovery from such data, called Constraint-based causal Discovery from heterogeneous/NOnstationary Data (CD-NOD), to find causal skeleton and directions and estimate the properties of mechanism changes. First, we propose an enhanced constraint-based procedure to detect variables whose local mechanisms change and recover the skeleton of the causal structure over observed variables. Second, we present a method to determine causal orientations by making use of independent changes in the data distribution implied by the underlying causal model, benefiting from information carried by changing distributions. After learning the causal structure, next, we investigate how to efficiently estimate the "driving force" of the nonstationarity of a causal mechanism. That is, we aim to extract from data a low-dimensional representation of changes. The proposed methods are nonparametric, with no hard restrictions on data distributions and causal mechanisms, and do not rely on window segmentation. Furthermore, we find that data heterogeneity benefits causal structure identification even with particular types of confounders. Finally, we show the connection between heterogeneity/nonstationarity and soft intervention in causal discovery. Experimental results on various synthetic and real-world data sets (task-fMRI and stock market data) are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods.

Biwei Huang, Kun Zhang, Ruben Sanchez-Romero et al.

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is one of the major developmental disorders affecting children. Recently, it has been hypothesized that ASD is associated with atypical brain connectivities. A substantial body of researches use Pearson's correlation coefficients, mutual information, or partial correlation to investigate the differences in brain connectivities between ASD and typical controls from functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI). However, correlation or partial correlation does not directly reveal causal influences - the information flow - between brain regions. Comparing to correlation, causality pinpoints the key connectivity characteristics and removes redundant features for diagnosis. In this paper, we propose a two-step method for large-scale and cyclic causal discovery from fMRI. It can identify brain causal structures without doing interventional experiments. The learned causal structure, as well as the causal influence strength, provides us the path and effectiveness of information flow. With the recovered causal influence strength as candidate features, we then perform ASD diagnosis by further doing feature selection and classification. We apply our methods to three datasets from Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange (ABIDE). From experimental results, it shows that with causal connectivities, the diagnostic accuracy largely improves. A closer examination shows that information flows starting from the superior front gyrus to default mode network and posterior areas are largely reduced. Moreover, all enhanced information flows are from posterior to anterior or in local areas. Overall, it shows that long-range influences have a larger proportion of reductions than local ones, while local influences have a larger proportion of increases than long-range ones. By examining the graph properties of brain causal structure, the group of ASD shows reduced small-worldness.

Joseph Ramsey, Bryan Andrews

We report a procedure that, in one step from continuous data with minimal preparation, recovers the graph found by Sachs et al. \cite{sachs2005causal}, with only a few edges different. The algorithm, Fast Adjacency Skewness (FASK), relies on a mixture of linear reasoning and reasoning from the skewness of variables; the Sachs data is a good candidate for this procedure since the skewness of the variables is quite pronounced. We review the ground truth model from Sachs et al. as well as some of the fluctuations seen in the protein abundances in the system, give the Sachs model and the FASK model, and perform a detailed comparison. Some variation in hyper-parameters is explored, though the main result uses values at or near the defaults learned from work modeling fMRI data.

Kun Zhang, Mingming Gong, Joseph Ramsey et al.

Measurement error in the observed values of the variables can greatly change the output of various causal discovery methods. This problem has received much attention in multiple fields, but it is not clear to what extent the causal model for the measurement-error-free variables can be identified in the presence of measurement error with unknown variance. In this paper, we study precise sufficient identifiability conditions for the measurement-error-free causal model and show what information of the causal model can be recovered from observed data. In particular, we present two different sets of identifiability conditions, based on the second-order statistics and higher-order statistics of the data, respectively. The former was inspired by the relationship between the generating model of the measurement-error-contaminated data and the factor analysis model, and the latter makes use of the identifiability result of the over-complete independent component analysis problem.

Joseph Ramsey

A number of attempts have been made to improve accuracy and/or scalability of the PC (Peter and Clark) algorithm, some well known (Buhlmann, et al., 2010; Kalisch and Buhlmann, 2007; 2008; Zhang, 2012, to give some examples). We add here one more tool to the toolbox: the simple observation that if one is forced to choose between a variety of possible conditioning sets for a pair of variables, one should choose the one with the highest p-value. One can use the CPC (Conservative PC, Ramsey et al., 2012) algorithm as a guide to possible sepsets for a pair of variables. However, whereas CPC uses a voting rule to classify colliders versus noncolliders, our proposed algorithm, PC-Max, picks the conditioning set with the highest p-value, so that there are no ambiguities. We combine this with two other optimizations: (a) avoiding bidirected edges in the orientation of colliders, and (b) parallelization. For (b) we borrow ideas from the PC-Stable algorithm (Colombo and Maathuis, 2014). The result is an algorithm that scales quite well both in terms of accuracy and time, with no risk of bidirected edges.

Joseph Ramsey, Jiji Zhang, Peter L. Spirtes

Most causal inference algorithms in the literature (e.g., Pearl (2000), Spirtes et al. (2000), Heckerman et al. (1999)) exploit an assumption usually referred to as the causal Faithfulness or Stability condition. In this paper, we highlight two components of the condition used in constraint-based algorithms, which we call "Adjacency-Faithfulness" and "Orientation-Faithfulness". We point out that assuming Adjacency-Faithfulness is true, it is in principle possible to test the validity of Orientation-Faithfulness. Based on this observation, we explore the consequence of making only the Adjacency-Faithfulness assumption. We show that the familiar PC algorithm has to be modified to be (asymptotically) correct under the weaker, Adjacency-Faithfulness assumption. Roughly the modified algorithm, called Conservative PC (CPC), checks whether Orientation-Faithfulness holds in the orientation phase, and if not, avoids drawing certain causal conclusions the PC algorithm would draw. However, if the stronger, standard causal Faithfulness condition actually obtains, the CPC algorithm is shown to output the same pattern as the PC algorithm does in the large sample limit. We also present a simulation study showing that the CPC algorithm runs almost as fast as the PC algorithm, and outputs significantly fewer false causal arrowheads than the PC algorithm does on realistic sample sizes. We end our paper by discussing how score-based algorithms such as GES perform when the Adjacency-Faithfulness but not the standard causal Faithfulness condition holds, and how to extend our work to the FCI algorithm, which allows for the possibility of latent variables.

Gustavo Lacerda, Peter L. Spirtes, Joseph Ramsey et al.

We generalize Shimizu et al's (2006) ICA-based approach for discovering linear non-Gaussian acyclic (LiNGAM) Structural Equation Models (SEMs) from causally sufficient, continuous-valued observational data. By relaxing the assumption that the generating SEM's graph is acyclic, we solve the more general problem of linear non-Gaussian (LiNG) SEM discovery. LiNG discovery algorithms output the distribution equivalence class of SEMs which, in the large sample limit, represents the population distribution. We apply a LiNG discovery algorithm to simulated data. Finally, we give sufficient conditions under which only one of the SEMs in the output class is 'stable'.

Patrik O. Hoyer, Aapo Hyvarinen, Richard Scheines et al.

An important task in data analysis is the discovery of causal relationships between observed variables. For continuous-valued data, linear acyclic causal models are commonly used to model the data-generating process, and the inference of such models is a well-studied problem. However, existing methods have significant limitations. Methods based on conditional independencies (Spirtes et al. 1993; Pearl 2000) cannot distinguish between independence-equivalent models, whereas approaches purely based on Independent Component Analysis (Shimizu et al. 2006) are inapplicable to data which is partially Gaussian. In this paper, we generalize and combine the two approaches, to yield a method able to learn the model structure in many cases for which the previous methods provide answers that are either incorrect or are not as informative as possible. We give exact graphical conditions for when two distinct models represent the same family of distributions, and empirically demonstrate the power of our method through thorough simulations.