Siddharth Boppana

Raphaël Sarfati, Pratyush Ranjan Tiwari, Siddharth Boppana et al.

Large language models fine-tuned for forecasting can be accurate yet poorly calibrated, and their chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning may not faithfully reflect the evidence behind a forecast. We ask whether internal representations offer a more direct window into both. Working with Eternis-Forecaster 8B on OpenForesight, we train representation-pooling probes on intermediate activations and find they achieve substantially better calibration; a result that also holds for GLM-4.7-Flash and GLM-4.5-Air. We then assess CoT faithfulness through evidence ablation and diversionary injection: removing an influential source in the prompt often changes the model's forecast while leaving the reasoning trace untouched. The same probes function as lie detectors: their activations track behavioral shifts far better than the reasoning trace does, and they also predict the direction of change in 84% of cases, including when the CoT conceals the perturbation's influence. Finally, forced answering reveals that forecasts are largely fixed before reasoning begins: a single pre-reasoning pass recovers the committed answer and confidence, and routing questions by the spread of this pre-set answer distribution saves 30-47% of generated tokens, with no loss of accuracy. Together, these results establish probing internal representations as a practical tool for calibrating, auditing, and triaging language model forecasters and reasoning models more broadly.

Usha Bhalla, Thomas Fel, Can Rager et al.

Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) are widely used to extract interpretable features from neural network representations, often under the implicit assumption that concepts correspond to independent linear directions. However, a growing body of evidence suggests that many concepts are instead organized along low-dimensional manifolds encoding continuous geometric relationships. This raises three basic questions: what does it mean for an SAE to capture a manifold, when do existing SAE architectures do so, and how? We develop a theoretical framework that answers these questions and show that SAEs can capture manifolds in two fundamentally different ways: globally, by allocating a compact group of atoms whose linear span contains the entire manifold, or locally, by distributing it across features that each selectively tile a restricted region of the underlying geometry. Empirically, we find that SAEs suboptimally recover continuous structures, mixing the global subspace and local tiling solutions in a fragmented regime we call dilution. This explains why manifold structure is rarely visible at the level of individual concepts and motivates post-hoc unsupervised discovery methods that search for coherent groups of atoms rather than isolated directions. More broadly, our results suggest that future representation learning methods should treat geometric objects, not just individual directions, as the basic units of interpretability.

Siddharth Boppana, Annabel Ma, Max Loeffler et al.

We provide evidence of performative chain-of-thought (CoT) in reasoning models, where a model becomes strongly confident in its final answer, but continues generating tokens without revealing its internal belief. Our analysis compares activation probing, early forced answering, and a CoT monitor across two large models (DeepSeek-R1 671B & GPT-OSS 120B) and find task difficulty-specific differences: The model's final answer is decodable from activations far earlier in CoT than a monitor is able to say, especially for easy recall-based MMLU questions. We contrast this with genuine reasoning in difficult multihop GPQA-Diamond questions. Despite this, inflection points (e.g., backtracking, 'aha' moments) occur almost exclusively in responses where probes show large belief shifts, suggesting these behaviors track genuine uncertainty rather than learned "reasoning theater." Finally, probe-guided early exit reduces tokens by up to 80% on MMLU and 30% on GPQA-Diamond with similar accuracy, positioning attention probing as an efficient tool for detecting performative reasoning and enabling adaptive computation.