Andrew Gambardella

Qi Cao, Takeshi Kojima, Andrew Gambardella et al.

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable performance across diverse tasks, but they often generate responses that appear plausible while being factually incorrect. This problem is compounded by the lack of explicit uncertainty estimates, which makes it difficult for users to judge the reliability of model outputs. Existing uncertainty quantification methods typically rely on indirect signals, such as entropy across sampled generations. These signals can be difficult to interpret and do not fully leverage the model's ability to assess its own uncertainty. We propose a simple yet effective self-assessment method for uncertainty quantification in LLMs. Our approach groups sampled generations into semantically distinct clusters, converts them into answer options in a structured multiple-choice question, and uses the probability assigned by the LLM to each option as a confidence estimate. Experiments across multiple models and datasets show that our method consistently outperforms baseline approaches. Notably, it achieves competitive performance with as few as two additional samples, demonstrating both its effectiveness and efficiency.

Qi Cao, Andrew Gambardella, Takeshi Kojima et al.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across diverse tasks. However, the truthfulness of their outputs is not guaranteed, and their tendency toward overconfidence further limits reliability. Uncertainty quantification offers a promising way to identify potentially unreliable outputs, but most existing methods rely on repeated sampling or auxiliary models, introducing substantial computational overhead. To address these limitations, we propose Semantic Token Clustering (STC), an efficient uncertainty quantification method that leverages the semantic information inherently encoded in LLMs. Specifically, we group tokens into semantically consistent clusters using embedding clustering and prefix matching, and quantify uncertainty based on the probability mass aggregated over the corresponding semantic cluster. Our approach requires only a single generation and does not depend on auxiliary models. Experimental results show that STC achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art baselines while substantially reducing computational overhead.

Andrew Gambardella, Takeshi Kojima, Yusuke Iwasawa et al.

Typical methods for evaluating the performance of language models evaluate their ability to answer questions accurately. These evaluation metrics are acceptable for determining the extent to which language models can understand and reason about text in a general sense, but fail to capture nuanced capabilities, such as the ability of language models to recognize and obey rare grammar points, particularly in languages other than English. We measure the perplexity of language models when confronted with the "first person psych predicate restriction" grammar point in Japanese. Weblab is the only tested open source model in the 7-10B parameter range which consistently assigns higher perplexity to ungrammatical psych predicate sentences than grammatical ones. We give evidence that Weblab's uniformly bad tokenization is a possible root cause for its good performance, and show that Llama 3's perplexity on grammatical psych predicate sentences can be reduced by orders of magnitude (28x difference) by restricting test sentences to those with uniformly well-behaved tokenizations. We show in further experiments on machine translation tasks that language models will use alternative grammar patterns in order to produce grammatical sentences when tokenization issues prevent the most natural sentence from being output.

Christian Schroeder de Witt, Bradley Gram-Hansen, Nantas Nardelli et al.

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of in-silico epidemiological modelling in predicting the dynamics of infectious diseases to inform health policy and decision makers about suitable prevention and containment strategies. Work in this setting involves solving challenging inference and control problems in individual-based models of ever increasing complexity. Here we discuss recent breakthroughs in machine learning, specifically in simulation-based inference, and explore its potential as a novel venue for model calibration to support the design and evaluation of public health interventions. To further stimulate research, we are developing software interfaces that turn two cornerstone COVID-19 and malaria epidemiology models COVID-sim, (https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim/) and OpenMalaria (https://github.com/SwissTPH/openmalaria) into probabilistic programs, enabling efficient interpretable Bayesian inference within those simulators.

Kento Kawaharazuka, Tatsuya Matsushima, Andrew Gambardella et al.

Recent developments in foundation models, like Large Language Models (LLMs) and Vision-Language Models (VLMs), trained on extensive data, facilitate flexible application across different tasks and modalities. Their impact spans various fields, including healthcare, education, and robotics. This paper provides an overview of the practical application of foundation models in real-world robotics, with a primary emphasis on the replacement of specific components within existing robot systems. The summary encompasses the perspective of input-output relationships in foundation models, as well as their role in perception, motion planning, and control within the field of robotics. This paper concludes with a discussion of future challenges and implications for practical robot applications.

Andrew Gambardella, Yusuke Iwasawa, Yutaka Matsuo

The ability (and inability) of large language models (LLMs) to perform arithmetic tasks has been the subject of much theoretical and practical debate. We show that LLMs are frequently able to correctly and confidently predict the first digit of n-digit by m-digit multiplication tasks without using chain of thought reasoning, despite these tasks require compounding operations to solve. Simultaneously, LLMs in practice often fail to correctly or confidently predict the last digit of an n-digit by m-digit multiplication, a task equivalent to 1-digit by 1-digit multiplication which can be easily learned or memorized. We show that the latter task can be solved more robustly when the LLM is conditioned on all of the correct higher-order digits, which on average increases the confidence of the correct last digit on 5-digit by 5-digit multiplication tasks using Llama 2-13B by over 230% (0.13 to 0.43) and Mistral-7B by 150% (0.22 to 0.55).

Andrew Gambardella, Bogdan State, Naeemullah Khan et al.

We propose the use of probabilistic programming techniques to tackle the malicious user identification problem in a recommendation algorithm. Probabilistic programming provides numerous advantages over other techniques, including but not limited to providing a disentangled representation of how malicious users acted under a structured model, as well as allowing for the quantification of damage caused by malicious users. We show experiments in malicious user identification using a model of regular and malicious users interacting with a simple recommendation algorithm, and provide a novel simulation-based measure for quantifying the effects of a user or group of users on its dynamics.

Andrew Gambardella, Atılım Güneş Baydin, Philip H. S. Torr

It is well known that deep generative models have a rich latent space, and that it is possible to smoothly manipulate their outputs by traversing this latent space. Recently, architectures have emerged that allow for more complex manipulations, such as making an image look as though it were from a different class, or painted in a certain style. These methods typically require large amounts of training in order to learn a single class of manipulations. We present Transflow Learning, a method for transforming a pre-trained generative model so that its outputs more closely resemble data that we provide afterwards. In contrast to previous methods, Transflow Learning does not require any training at all, and instead warps the probability distribution from which we sample latent vectors using Bayesian inference. Transflow Learning can be used to solve a wide variety of tasks, such as neural style transfer and few-shot classification.

Maximilian Igl, Andrew Gambardella, Jinke He et al.

We present Multitask Soft Option Learning(MSOL), a hierarchical multitask framework based on Planning as Inference. MSOL extends the concept of options, using separate variational posteriors for each task, regularized by a shared prior. This ''soft'' version of options avoids several instabilities during training in a multitask setting, and provides a natural way to learn both intra-option policies and their terminations. Furthermore, it allows fine-tuning of options for new tasks without forgetting their learned policies, leading to faster training without reducing the expressiveness of the hierarchical policy. We demonstrate empirically that MSOL significantly outperforms both hierarchical and flat transfer-learning baselines.