Zhaoyi Xu

Zhaoyi Xu, Yanjie Guo, Joseph Homer Saleh

Rotating machinery is essential to modern life, from power generation to transportation and a host of other industrial applications. Since such equipment generally operates under challenging working conditions, which can lead to untimely failures, accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is essential for maintenance planning and to prevent catastrophic failures. In this work, we address current challenges in data-driven RUL prediction for rotating machinery. The challenges revolve around the accuracy and uncertainty quantification of the prediction, and the non-stationarity of the system degradation and RUL estimation given sensor data. We devise a novel architecture and RUL prediction model with uncertainty quantification, termed VisPro, which integrates time-frequency analysis, deep learning image recognition, and nonstationary Gaussian process regression. We analyze and benchmark the results obtained with our model against those of other advanced data-driven RUL prediction models for rotating machinery using the PHM12 bearing vibration dataset. The computational experiments show that (1) the VisPro predictions are highly accurate and provide significant improvements over existing prediction models (three times more accurate than the second-best model), and (2) the RUL uncertainty bounds are valid and informative. We identify and discuss the architectural and modeling choices made that explain this excellent predictive performance of VisPro.

Zhaoyi Xu, Joseph Homer Saleh

Machine learning (ML) pervades an increasing number of academic disciplines and industries. Its impact is profound, and several fields have been fundamentally altered by it, autonomy and computer vision for example; reliability engineering and safety will undoubtedly follow suit. There is already a large but fragmented literature on ML for reliability and safety applications, and it can be overwhelming to navigate and integrate into a coherent whole. In this work, we facilitate this task by providing a synthesis of, and a roadmap to this ever-expanding analytical landscape and highlighting its major landmarks and pathways. We first provide an overview of the different ML categories and sub-categories or tasks, and we note several of the corresponding models and algorithms. We then look back and review the use of ML in reliability and safety applications. We examine several publications in each category/sub-category, and we include a short discussion on the use of Deep Learning to highlight its growing popularity and distinctive advantages. Finally, we look ahead and outline several promising future opportunities for leveraging ML in service of advancing reliability and safety considerations. Overall, we argue that ML is capable of providing novel insights and opportunities to solve important challenges in reliability and safety applications. It is also capable of teasing out more accurate insights from accident datasets than with traditional analysis tools, and this in turn can lead to better informed decision-making and more effective accident prevention.