Kerrie Mengersen

Conor Hassan, Robert Salomone, Kerrie Mengersen

This article provides a comprehensive synthesis of the recent developments in synthetic data generation via deep generative models, focusing on tabular datasets. We specifically outline the importance of synthetic data generation in the context of privacy-sensitive data. Additionally, we highlight the advantages of using deep generative models over other methods and provide a detailed explanation of the underlying concepts, including unsupervised learning, neural networks, and generative models. The paper covers the challenges and considerations involved in using deep generative models for tabular datasets, such as data normalization, privacy concerns, and model evaluation. This review provides a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners interested in synthetic data generation and its applications.

Katie Buchhorn, Edgar Santos-Fernandez, Kerrie Mengersen et al.

Water is the lifeblood of river networks, and its quality plays a crucial role in sustaining both aquatic ecosystems and human societies. Real-time monitoring of water quality is increasingly reliant on in-situ sensor technology. Anomaly detection is crucial for identifying erroneous patterns in sensor data, but can be a challenging task due to the complexity and variability of the data, even under normal conditions. This paper presents a solution to the challenging task of anomaly detection for river network sensor data, which is essential for accurate and continuous monitoring. We use a graph neural network model, the recently proposed Graph Deviation Network (GDN), which employs graph attention-based forecasting to capture the complex spatio-temporal relationships between sensors. We propose an alternate anomaly scoring method, GDN+, based on the learned graph. To evaluate the model's efficacy, we introduce new benchmarking simulation experiments with highly-sophisticated dependency structures and subsequence anomalies of various types. We further examine the strengths and weaknesses of this baseline approach, GDN, in comparison to other benchmarking methods on complex real-world river network data. Findings suggest that GDN+ outperforms the baseline approach in high-dimensional data, while also providing improved interpretability. We also introduce software called gnnad.

Conor Hassan, Robert Salomone, Kerrie Mengersen

Federated learning methods enable model training across distributed data sources without data leaving their original locations and have gained increasing interest in various fields. However, existing approaches are limited, excluding many structured probabilistic models. We present a general and elegant solution based on structured variational inference, widely used in Bayesian machine learning, adapted for the federated setting. Additionally, we provide a communication-efficient variant analogous to the canonical FedAvg algorithm. The proposed algorithms' effectiveness is demonstrated, and their performance is compared with hierarchical Bayesian neural networks and topic models.

Hong-Bo Xie, Caoyuan Li, Shuliang Wang et al.

Construction of dictionaries using nonnegative matrix factorisation (NMF) has extensive applications in signal processing and machine learning. With the advances in deep learning, training compact and robust dictionaries using deep neural networks, i.e., dictionaries of deep features, has been proposed. In this study, we propose a probabilistic generative model which employs a variational autoencoder (VAE) to perform nonnegative dictionary learning. In contrast to the existing VAE models, we cast the model under a statistical framework with latent variables obeying a Gamma distribution and design a new loss function to guarantee the nonnegative dictionaries. We adopt an acceptance-rejection sampling reparameterization trick to update the latent variables iteratively. We apply the dictionaries learned from VAE-NMF to two signal processing tasks, i.e., enhancement of speech and extraction of muscle synergies. Experimental results demonstrate that VAE-NMF performs better in learning the latent nonnegative dictionaries in comparison with state-of-the-art methods.

Ethan Goan, Dimitri Perrin, Kerrie Mengersen et al.

Inference on modern Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) often relies on a variational inference treatment, imposing violated assumptions of independence and the form of the posterior. Traditional MCMC approaches avoid these assumptions at the cost of increased computation due to its incompatibility to subsampling of the likelihood. New Piecewise Deterministic Markov Process (PDMP) samplers permit subsampling, though introduce a model specific inhomogenous Poisson Process (IPPs) which is difficult to sample from. This work introduces a new generic and adaptive thinning scheme for sampling from these IPPs, and demonstrates how this approach can accelerate the application of PDMPs for inference in BNNs. Experimentation illustrates how inference with these methods is computationally feasible, can improve predictive accuracy, MCMC mixing performance, and provide informative uncertainty measurements when compared against other approximate inference schemes.

Conor Hassan, Matthew Sutton, Antonietta Mira et al.

Vertical federated learning (VFL) has emerged as a paradigm for collaborative model estimation across multiple clients, each holding a distinct set of covariates. This paper introduces the first comprehensive framework for fitting Bayesian models in the VFL setting. We propose a novel approach that leverages data augmentation techniques to transform VFL problems into a form compatible with existing Bayesian federated learning algorithms. We present an innovative model formulation for specific VFL scenarios where the joint likelihood factorizes into a product of client-specific likelihoods. To mitigate the dimensionality challenge posed by data augmentation, which scales with the number of observations and clients, we develop a factorized amortized variational approximation that achieves scalability independent of the number of observations. We showcase the efficacy of our framework through extensive numerical experiments on logistic regression, multilevel regression, and a novel hierarchical Bayesian split neural net model. Our work paves the way for privacy-preserving, decentralized Bayesian inference in vertically partitioned data scenarios, opening up new avenues for research and applications in various domains.

wala Draidi Areed, Aiden Price, Kathryn Arnett et al.

The research explores the influence of preschool attendance (one year before full-time school) on the development of children during their first year of school. Using data collected by the Australian Early Development Census, the findings show that areas with high proportions of preschool attendance tended to have lower proportions of children with at least one developmental vulnerability. Developmental vulnerablities include not being able to cope with the school day (tired, hungry, low energy), unable to get along with others or aggressive behaviour, trouble with reading/writing or numbers. These findings, of course, vary by region. Using Data Analysis and Machine Learning, the researchers were able to identify three distinct clusters within Queensland, each characterised by different socio-demographic variables influencing the relationship between preschool attendance and developmental vulnerability. These analyses contribute to understanding regions with high vulnerability and the potential need for tailored policies or investments

Letitia Sabburg, Alan Woodley, Kerrie Mengersen

The communication of uncertainty estimates, predictions and insights based on spatio-temporal models is important for decision-making as it impacts the utilisation and interpretation of information. Bivariate mapping is commonly used for communication of estimates and associated uncertainty; however, it is known that different visual qualities resulting from choics of symbols and consequent interaction between the display dimensions can lead to different interpretations and consequently affect resultant decisions. Characteristics of the data to be presented, such as spatial format, statistical level and continuousness, shape the range of available bivairate symbols. The subsequent utility of these bivariate symbols depends on their ability to achieve end-user's goals. In this paper we present a novel design framework, which, through consideration of both input data characteristics and potential operational tasks (as proxy to end-user goals), assists map designers in appropriate selection of bivariate symbols for the coincident presentation of spatio-temporal modelled data and associated uncertainty. The framework is showcased through application to a case study pertaining to sediment pollution in the Great Barrier Reef.

Insha Ullah, Kerrie Mengersen, Rob J Hyndman et al.

Organizations such as government departments and financial institutions provide online service facilities accessible via an increasing number of internet connected devices which make their operational environment vulnerable to cyber attacks. Consequently, there is a need to have mechanisms in place to detect cyber security attacks in a timely manner. A variety of Network Intrusion Detection Systems (NIDS) have been proposed and can be categorized into signature-based NIDS and anomaly-based NIDS. The signature-based NIDS, which identify the misuse through scanning the activity signature against the list of known attack activities, are criticized for their inability to identify new attacks (never-before-seen attacks). Among anomaly-based NIDS, which declare a connection anomalous if it expresses deviation from a trained model, the unsupervised learning algorithms circumvent this issue since they have the ability to identify new attacks. In this study, we use an unsupervised learning algorithm based on principal component analysis to detect cyber attacks. In the training phase, our approach has the advantage of also identifying outliers in the training dataset. In the monitoring phase, our approach first identifies the affected dimensions and then calculates an anomaly score by aggregating across only those components that are affected by the anomalies. We explore the performance of the algorithm via simulations and through two applications, namely to the UNSW-NB15 dataset recently released by the Australian Centre for Cyber Security and to the well-known KDD'99 dataset. The algorithm is scalable to large datasets in both training and monitoring phases, and the results from both the simulated and real datasets show that the method has promise in detecting suspicious network activities.

Susannah Kate Devitt, Tamara Rose Pearce, Alok Kumar Chowdhury et al.

Against the backdrop of a social media reckoning, this paper seeks to demonstrate the potential of social tools to build virtuous behaviours online. We must assume that human behaviour is flawed, the truth can be elusive, and as communities we must commit to mechanisms to encourage virtuous social digital behaviours. Societies that use social platforms should be inclusive, responsive to evidence, limit punitive actions and allow productive discord and respectful disagreement. Social media success, we argue, is in the hypothesis. Documents are valuable to the degree that they are evidence in service of, or to challenge an idea for a purpose. We outline how a Bayesian social platform can facilitate virtuous behaviours to build evidence-based collective rationality. The chapter outlines the epistemic architecture of the platform's algorithms and user interface in conjunction with explicit community management to ensure psychological safety. The BetterBeliefs platform rewards users who demonstrate epistemically virtuous behaviours and exports evidence-based propositions for decision-making. A Bayesian social network can make virtuous ideas powerful.