Arya Hariharan

Benjamin Warner, Ratna Sagari Grandhi, Max Kieffer et al.

Evaluating large language models (LLMs) for medical applications remains challenging due to benchmark saturation, limited data accessibility, and insufficient coverage of relevant tasks. Existing suites have either saturated, heavily depend on restricted datasets, or lack comprehensive model coverage. We introduce Medmarks, a fully open-source evaluation suite with 30 benchmarks spanning question answering, information extraction, medical calculations, and open-ended clinical reasoning. We perform a systematic evaluation of 61 models across 71 configurations using verifiable metrics and LLM-as-a-Judge. Our results show that frontier reasoning models (Gemini 3 Pro Preview, GPT-5.1, & GPT-5.2) achieve the highest performance across both benchmarks, most frontier proprietary models are significantly more token efficient than open-weight alternatives, medically fine-tuned models outperform their generalist counterparts, and that models are susceptible to answer-order bias (particularly smaller models and Grok 4). A subset of our evals (Medmarks-T) can be directly used as reinforcement learning environments to post-train LLMs for medical reasoning. Code is available at https://github.com/MedARC-AI/Medmarks

Ananth K S, Arya Hariharan

Fang et al. (2025) introduced a null-space constrained projection, named AlphaEdit, for locate-then-edit knowledge editing methods, theoretically guaranteeing that edits do not disrupt previously preserved knowledge, and reports substantial gains over existing editing methods on LLaMA3, GPT2-XL, and GPT-J. In this work, we present a reproducibility study of AlphaEdit, reproducing its reported results under the original experimental setup and extending the evaluation along three axes: new model architectures, additional downstream benchmarks, and substantially longer sequential editing horizons. We successfully reproduce AlphaEdit's reported metrics across the original models, though we identify a discrepancy in the reported fluency and consistency metric. Extending AlphaEdit to newer model families, we find that its advantage does not generalize uniformly, which we trace to architectural assumptions in the locate-then-edit paradigm that are violated by these newer models. We further stress-test AlphaEdit's central sequential-editing claim by extending the number of edits well beyond those evaluated in the original paper, and find that performance, which is stable at the originally reported scale, degrades as edits reach a much higher count, indicating that the null-space projection's protection against catastrophic forgetting is bounded rather than unconditional. Finally, we extend evaluation of edited models on three extra benchmarks, namely, BoolQ, HellaSwag, and XSTest, and we find that large-scale sequential editing degrades both general downstream task competence and safety-relevant refusal behavior. Our results confirm that AlphaEdit performs as reported within its original scope, while showing that its core theoretical guarantees are sensitive to model architecture and editing scale in ways that have practical implications for its deployment.

Arya Hariharan, Shreyank N Gowda, Anala M R

Longitudinal modelling of Alzheimer's disease progression is clinically useful only if it can describe not just the most likely next diagnosis, but how a patient may evolve over time and how reliable that forecast is. Most deep learning approaches reduce this problem to single-step classification, treating cognitively normal, mild cognitive impairment, and dementia as flat categories while providing limited insight into how uncertainty accumulates across future visits. We propose a probabilistic framework that combines ordinal diagnosis prediction, multi-horizon trajectory generation, and decomposed uncertainty estimation. A Temporal Fusion Transformer encoder is adapted with a CORAL ordinal output layer, asymmetric loss weighting, and converter oversampling to respect disease-stage ordering and improve sensitivity to MCI-to-dementia transitions. Conditioned on the learned patient-context representation, an autoregressive Mixture Density Network generates five-year probabilistic trajectories for diagnosis state, CDR Sum of Boxes, MMSE orientation, and hippocampal volume. On ADNI, the model outperforms linear, recurrent, and transformer baselines for next-visit diagnosis prediction, with the strongest gains on MCI-versus-dementia discrimination. Generated trajectories achieve near-nominal 90% credible interval coverage, widening uncertainty across the forecast horizon, and biomarker dynamics consistent with expected Alzheimer's disease progression. We further separate aleatoric from epistemic uncertainty using analytic mixture variance and a five-member bootstrap ensemble, which provides the strongest encoder diversity and output-level epistemic signal. Epistemic uncertainty is higher for rare progression archetypes, MCI and dementia patients, and under external evaluation on OASIS-3, where it increases alongside prediction error.