Mumin Jia

Mumin Jia, Yilin Chen, Divya Sharma et al.

Digital personas powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly proposed as substitutes for human survey respondents, yet it remains unclear when they can reliably approximate human survey findings. We answer this question using the LISS panel, constructing personas from respondents' background variables and pre-2023 survey histories, then testing them against the same respondents' held-out post-cutoff answers. Across four persona architectures, three LLMs, and two prediction tasks, we assess performance at the question, respondent, distributional, equity, and clustering levels. Digital personas improve alignment with human response distributions, especially in domains tied to stable attributes and values, but remain limited for individual prediction and fail to recover multivariate respondent structure. Retrieval-augmented architectures provide the clearest gains, but performance depends more on human response structure than on model choice: personas perform best for low-variability questions and common respondent patterns, and worst for subjective, heterogeneous, or rare responses. Our results provide practical guidance on when digital personas could be appropriate for survey research and when human validation remains necessary.

Mumin Jia, Jairo Diaz-Rodriguez

Unsupervised text segmentation is crucial because boundary labels are expensive, subjective, and often fail to transfer across domains and granularity choices. We propose Embed-KCPD, a training-free method that represents sentences as embedding vectors and estimates boundaries by minimizing a penalized KCPD objective. Beyond the algorithmic instantiation, we develop, to our knowledge, the first dependence-aware theory for KCPD under $m$-dependent sequences, a finite-memory abstraction of short-range dependence common in language. We prove an oracle inequality for the population penalized risk and a localization guarantee showing that each true change point is recovered within a window that is small relative to segment length. To connect theory to practice, we introduce an LLM-based simulation framework that generates synthetic documents with controlled finite-memory dependence and known boundaries, validating the predicted scaling behavior. Across standard segmentation benchmarks, Embed-KCPD often outperforms strong unsupervised baselines. A case study on Taylor Swift's tweets illustrates that Embed-KCPD combines strong theoretical guarantees, simulated reliability, and practical effectiveness for text segmentation.

Mumin Jia, Jairo Diaz-Rodriguez

Human cognition is punctuated by abrupt, spontaneous shifts between topics-driven by emotional, contextual, or associative cues-a phenomenon known as spontaneous thought in neuroscience. In contrast, self-attention based models depend on structured patterns over their inputs to predict each next token, lacking spontaneity. Motivated by this distinction, we characterize spontaneous topic changes in self-attention architectures, revealing both their similarities and their divergences from spontaneous human thought. First, we establish theoretical results under a simplified, single-layer self-attention model with suitable conditions by defining the topic as a set of Token Priority Graphs (TPGs). Specifically, we demonstrate that (1) the model maintains the priority order of tokens related to the input topic, (2) a spontaneous topic change can occur only if lower-priority tokens outnumber all higher-priority tokens of the input topic, and (3) unlike human cognition, the longer context length or the more ambiguous input topic reduces the likelihood of spontaneous change. Second, we empirically validate that these dynamics persist in modern, state-of-the-art LLMs, underscoring a fundamental disparity between human cognition and AI behaviour in the context of spontaneous topic changes. To the best of our knowledge, no prior work has explored these questions with a focus as closely aligned to human thought.

Jairo Diaz-Rodriguez, Mumin Jia

Kernel change-point detection (KCPD) has become a widely used tool for identifying structural changes in complex data. While existing theory establishes consistency under independence assumptions, real-world sequential data such as text exhibits strong dependencies. We establish new guarantees for KCPD under $m$-dependent data: specifically, we prove consistency in the number of detected change points and weak consistency in their locations under mild additional assumptions. We perform an LLM-based simulation that generates synthetic $m$-dependent text to validate the asymptotics. To complement these results, we present the first comprehensive empirical study of KCPD for text segmentation with modern embeddings. Across diverse text datasets, KCPD with text embeddings outperforms baselines in standard text segmentation metrics. We demonstrate through a case study on Taylor Swift's tweets that KCPD not only provides strong theoretical and simulated reliability but also practical effectiveness for text segmentation tasks.