Rodney Beard

Giang Ngo, Rodney Beard, Rohitash Chandra

Ensemble learning has gained success in machine learning with major advantages over other learning methods. Bagging is a prominent ensemble learning method that creates subgroups of data, known as bags, that are trained by individual machine learning methods such as decision trees. Random forest is a prominent example of bagging with additional features in the learning process. Evolutionary algorithms have been prominent for optimisation problems and also been used for machine learning. Evolutionary algorithms are gradient-free methods that work with a population of candidate solutions that maintain diversity for creating new solutions. In conventional bagged ensemble learning, the bags are created once and the content, in terms of the training examples, are fixed over the learning process. In our paper, we propose evolutionary bagged ensemble learning, where we utilise evolutionary algorithms to evolve the content of the bags in order to iteratively enhance the ensemble by providing diversity in the bags. The results show that our evolutionary ensemble bagging method outperforms conventional ensemble methods (bagging and random forests) for several benchmark datasets under certain constraints. We find that evolutionary bagging can inherently sustain a diverse set of bags without reduction in performance accuracy.

Tianyi Wang, Rodney Beard, John Hawkins et al.

The gross domestic product (GDP) is the most widely used indicator in macroeconomics and the main tool for measuring a country's economic output. Due to the diversity and complexity of the world economy, a wide range of models have been used, but there are challenges in making decadal GDP forecasts given unexpected changes such as emergence of catastrophic world events including pandemics and wars. Deep learning models are well suited for modelling temporal sequences and time series forecasting. In this paper, we develop a deep learning framework to forecast the GDP growth rate of the world economy over a decade. We use the Penn World Table as the data source featuring 13 countries prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, such as Australia, China, India, and the United States. We present a recursive deep learning framework to predict the GDP growth rate in the next ten years. We test prominent deep learning models and compare their results with traditional econometric models for selected developed and developing countries. Our decadal forecasts reveal that that most of the developed countries would experience economic growth slowdown, stagnation and even recession within five years (2020-2024). Furthermore, our model forecasts show that only China, France, and India would experience stable GDP growth.

Xuechun Wang, Rodney Beard, Rohitash Chandra

Machine translation using large language models (LLMs) is having a significant global impact, making communication easier. Mandarin Chinese is the official language used for communication by the government and media in China. In this study, we provide an automated assessment of translation quality of Google Translate with human experts using sentiment and semantic analysis. In order to demonstrate our framework, we select the classic early twentieth-century novel 'The True Story of Ah Q' with selected Mandarin Chinese to English translations. We use Google Translate to translate the given text into English and then conduct a chapter-wise sentiment analysis and semantic analysis to compare the extracted sentiments across the different translations. Our results indicate that the precision of Google Translate differs both in terms of semantic and sentiment analysis when compared to human expert translations. We find that Google Translate is unable to translate some of the specific words or phrases in Chinese, such as Chinese traditional allusions. The mistranslations may be due to lack of contextual significance and historical knowledge of China.

John Hawkins, Aditya Pramar, Rodney Beard et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) suffer from a range of vulnerabilities that allow malicious users to solicit undesirable responses through manipulation of the input text. These so-called jailbreak prompts are designed to trick the LLM into circumventing the safety guardrails put in place to keep responses acceptable to the developer's policies. In this study, we analyse the ability of different machine learning models to distinguish jailbreak prompts from genuine uses, including looking at our ability to identify jailbreaks that use previously unseen strategies. Our results indicate that using current datasets the best performance is achieved by fine tuning a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) model end-to-end for identifying jailbreaks. We visualise the keywords that distinguish jailbreak from genuine prompts and conclude that explicit reflexivity in prompt structure could be a signal of jailbreak intention.