Mehdi Jafarı

Yuncheng Hua, Sion Weatherhead, Mehdi Jafari et al.

Automated simulator construction requires distributional fidelity, distinguishing it from generic code generation. We identify two failure modes in long-horizon LLM agents: contextual drift and optimization instability arising from conflating structural and parametric errors. We propose SOCIA-EVO, a dual-anchored evolutionary framework. SOCIA-EVO introduces: (1) a static blueprint to enforce empirical constraints; (2) a bi-level optimization to decouple structural refinement from parameter calibration; and (3) a self-curating Strategy Playbook that manages remedial hypotheses via Bayesian-weighted retrieval. By falsifying ineffective strategies through execution feedback, SOCIA-EVO achieves robust convergence, generating simulators that are statistically consistent with observational data. The code and data of SOCIA-EVO are available here: https://github.com/cruiseresearchgroup/SOCIA/tree/evo.

Shahin Mirshekari, Mohammadreza Moradi, Hossein Jafari et al.

This research employs Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with an ensemble kernel, integrating Exponential Squared, Revised Matérn, and Rational Quadratic kernels to analyze pharmaceutical sales data. Bayesian optimization was used to identify optimal kernel weights: 0.76 for Exponential Squared, 0.21 for Revised Matérn, and 0.13 for Rational Quadratic. The ensemble kernel demonstrated superior performance in predictive accuracy, achieving an \( R^2 \) score near 1.0, and significantly lower values in Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). These findings highlight the efficacy of ensemble kernels in GPR for predictive analytics in complex pharmaceutical sales datasets.

Yuncheng Hua, Sion Weatherhead, Mehdi Jafari et al.

In this paper, we present SOCIA-Nabla, an end-to-end, agentic framework that treats simulator construction asinstance optimization over code within a textual computation graph. Specialized LLM-driven agents are embedded as graph nodes, and a workflow manager executes a loss-driven loop: code synthesis -> execution -> evaluation -> code repair. The optimizer performs Textual-Gradient Descent (TGD), while human-in-the-loop interaction is reserved for task-spec confirmation, minimizing expert effort and keeping the code itself as the trainable object. Across three CPS tasks, i.e., User Modeling, Mask Adoption, and Personal Mobility, SOCIA-Nabla attains state-of-the-art overall accuracy. By unifying multi-agent orchestration with a loss-aligned optimization view, SOCIA-Nabla converts brittle prompt pipelines into reproducible, constraint-aware simulator code generation that scales across domains and simulation granularities. This work is under review, and we will release the code soon.

Yuncheng Hua, Sion Weatherhead, Mehdi Jafari et al.

In this paper, we present SOCIA-$\nabla$, an end-to-end, agentic framework that treats simulator construction asinstance optimization over code within a textual computation graph. Specialized LLM-driven agents are embedded as graph nodes, and a workflow manager executes a loss-driven loop: code synthesis -> execution -> evaluation -> code repair. The optimizer performs Textual-Gradient Descent (TGD), while human-in-the-loop interaction is reserved for task-spec confirmation, minimizing expert effort and keeping the code itself as the trainable object. Across three CPS tasks, i.e., User Modeling, Mask Adoption, and Personal Mobility, SOCIA-$\nabla$ attains state-of-the-art overall accuracy. By unifying multi-agent orchestration with a loss-aligned optimization view, SOCIA-$\nabla$ converts brittle prompt pipelines into reproducible, constraint-aware simulator code generation that scales across domains and simulation granularities. We will release the code soon.