Naoki Nishimura

Shunnosuke Ikeda, Naoki Nishimura, Noriyoshi Sukegawa et al.

This paper is concerned with personalized pricing models aimed at maximizing the expected revenues or profits for a single item. While it is essential for personalized pricing to predict the purchase probabilities for each consumer, these predicted values are inherently subject to unavoidable errors that can negatively impact the realized revenues and profits. To address this issue, we focus on robust optimization techniques that yield reliable solutions to optimization problems under uncertainty. Specifically, we propose a robust optimization model for personalized pricing that accounts for the uncertainty of predicted purchase probabilities. This model can be formulated as a mixed-integer linear optimization problem, which can be solved exactly using mathematical optimization solvers. We also develop a Lagrangian decomposition algorithm combined with line search to efficiently find high-quality solutions for large-scale optimization problems. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our robust optimization model and highlight the utility of our Lagrangian decomposition algorithm in terms of both computational efficiency and solution quality.

Keisho Oh, Naoki Nishimura, Minje Sung et al.

In modern recommendation systems, unbiased learning-to-rank (LTR) is crucial for prioritizing items from biased implicit user feedback, such as click data. Several techniques, such as Inverse Propensity Weighting (IPW), have been proposed for single-sided markets. However, less attention has been paid to two-sided markets, such as job platforms or dating services, where successful conversions require matching preferences from both users. This paper addresses the complex interaction of biases between users in two-sided markets and proposes a tailored LTR approach. We first present a formulation of feedback mechanisms in two-sided matching platforms and point out that their implicit feedback may include position bias from both user groups. On the basis of this observation, we extend the IPW estimator and propose a new estimator, named two-sided IPW, to address the position bases in two-sided markets. We prove that the proposed estimator satisfies the unbiasedness for the ground-truth ranking metric. We conducted numerical experiments on real-world two-sided platforms and demonstrated the effectiveness of our proposed method in terms of both precision and robustness. Our experiments showed that our method outperformed baselines especially when handling rare items, which are less frequently observed in the training data.

Naoki Nishimura, Ken Kobayashi, Kazuhide Nakata

Coupon allocation drives customer purchases and boosts revenue. However, it presents a fundamental trade-off between exploiting the current optimal policy to maximize immediate revenue and exploring alternative policies to collect data for future policy improvement via off-policy evaluation (OPE). To balance this trade-off, we propose a novel approach that combines a model-based revenue maximization policy and a randomized exploration policy for data collection. Our framework enables flexible adjustment of the mixture ratio between these two policies to optimize the balance between short-term revenue and future policy improvement. We formulate the problem of determining the optimal mixture ratio as multi-objective optimization, enabling quantitative evaluation of this trade-off. We empirically verified the effectiveness of the proposed mixed policy using synthetic data. Our main contributions are: (1) Demonstrating a mixed policy combining deterministic and probabilistic policies, flexibly adjusting the data collection vs. revenue trade-off. (2) Formulating the optimal mixture ratio problem as multi-objective optimization, enabling quantitative evaluation of this trade-off.

Shunnosuke Ikeda, Naoki Nishimura, Shunji Umetani

This study addresses the interpretable estimation of price bounds in the context of price optimization. In recent years, price-optimization methods have become indispensable for maximizing revenue and profits. However, effective application of these methods to real-world pricing operations remains a significant challenge. It is crucial for operators responsible for setting prices to utilize reasonable price bounds that are not only interpretable but also acceptable. Despite this necessity, most studies assume that price bounds are given constant values, and few have explored reasonable determinations of these bounds. Therefore, we propose a comprehensive framework for determining price bounds that includes both the estimation and adjustment of these bounds. Specifically, we first estimate price bounds using three distinct approaches based on historical pricing data. Then, we adjust the estimated price bounds by solving an optimization problem that incorporates shape constraints. This method allows the implementation of price optimization under practical and reasonable price bounds suitable for real-world applications. We report the effectiveness of our proposed method through numerical experiments using historical pricing data from actual services.

Yuki Uehara, Shunnosuke Ikeda, Naoki Nishimura et al.

In two-sided marketplaces such as online flea markets, recommender systems for providing consumers with personalized item rankings play a key role in promoting transactions between providers and consumers. Meanwhile, two-sided marketplaces face the problem of balancing consumer satisfaction and fairness among items to stimulate activity of item providers. Saito and Joachims (2022) devised an impact-based fair ranking method for maximizing the Nash social welfare based on fair division; however, this method, which requires solving a large-scale constrained nonlinear optimization problem, is very difficult to apply to practical-scale recommender systems. We thus propose a fast solution to the impact-based fair ranking problem. We first transform the fair ranking problem into an unconstrained optimization problem and then design a gradient ascent method that repeatedly executes the Sinkhorn algorithm. Experimental results demonstrate that our algorithm provides fair rankings of high quality and is about 1000 times faster than application of commercial optimization software.

Naoki Nishimura, Noriyoshi Sukegawa, Yuichi Takano et al.

This paper examines the relationship between user pageview (PV) histories and their item-choice behavior on an e-commerce website. We focus on PV sequences, which represent time series of the number of PVs for each user--item pair. We propose a shape-restricted optimization model that accurately estimates item-choice probabilities for all possible PV sequences. This model imposes monotonicity constraints on item-choice probabilities by exploiting partial orders for PV sequences, according to the recency and frequency of a user's previous PVs. To improve the computational efficiency of our optimization model, we devise efficient algorithms for eliminating all redundant constraints according to the transitivity of the partial orders. Experimental results using real-world clickstream data demonstrate that our method achieves higher prediction performance than that of a state-of-the-art optimization model and common machine learning methods.

Naoki Nishimura, Noriyoshi Sukegawa, Yuichi Takano et al.

This paper analyzes customer product-choice behavior based on the recency and frequency of each customer's page views on e-commerce sites. Recently, we devised an optimization model for estimating product-choice probabilities that satisfy monotonicity, convexity, and concavity constraints with respect to recency and frequency. This shape-restricted model delivered high predictive performance even when there were few training samples. However, typical e-commerce sites deal in many different varieties of products, so the predictive performance of the model can be further improved by integration of such product heterogeneity. For this purpose, we develop a novel latent-class shape-restricted model for estimating product-choice probabilities for each latent class of products. We also give a tailored expectation-maximization algorithm for parameter estimation. Computational results demonstrate that higher predictive performance is achieved with our latent-class model than with the previous shape-restricted model and common latent-class logistic regression.