Jingtao Ding

Yuan Yuan, Huandong Wang, Jingtao Ding et al.

Daily activity data that records individuals' various types of activities in daily life are widely used in many applications such as activity scheduling, activity recommendation, and policymaking. Though with high value, its accessibility is limited due to high collection costs and potential privacy issues. Therefore, simulating human activities to produce massive high-quality data is of great importance to benefit practical applications. However, existing solutions, including rule-based methods with simplified assumptions of human behavior and data-driven methods directly fitting real-world data, both cannot fully qualify for matching reality. In this paper, motivated by the classic psychological theory, Maslow's need theory describing human motivation, we propose a knowledge-driven simulation framework based on generative adversarial imitation learning. To enhance the fidelity and utility of the generated activity data, our core idea is to model the evolution of human needs as the underlying mechanism that drives activity generation in the simulation model. Specifically, this is achieved by a hierarchical model structure that disentangles different need levels, and the use of neural stochastic differential equations that successfully captures piecewise-continuous characteristics of need dynamics. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our framework outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in terms of data fidelity and utility. Besides, we present the insightful interpretability of the need modeling. The code is available at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/SAND.

Zhilun Zhou, Jingtao Ding, Yu Liu et al.

Although generative AI has been successful in many areas, its ability to model geospatial data is still underexplored. Urban flow, a typical kind of geospatial data, is critical for a wide range of urban applications. Existing studies mostly focus on predictive modeling of urban flow that predicts the future flow based on historical flow data, which may be unavailable in data-sparse areas or newly planned regions. Some other studies aim to predict OD flow among regions but they fail to model dynamic changes of urban flow over time. In this work, we study a new problem of urban flow generation that generates dynamic urban flow for regions without historical flow data. To capture the effect of multiple factors on urban flow, such as region features and urban environment, we employ diffusion model to generate urban flow for regions under different conditions. We first construct an urban knowledge graph (UKG) to model the urban environment and relationships between regions, based on which we design a knowledge-enhanced spatio-temporal diffusion model (KSTDiff) to generate urban flow for each region. Specifically, to accurately generate urban flow for regions with different flow volumes, we design a novel diffusion process guided by a volume estimator, which is learnable and customized for each region. Moreover, we propose a knowledge-enhanced denoising network to capture the spatio-temporal dependencies of urban flow as well as the impact of urban environment in the denoising process. Extensive experiments on four real-world datasets validate the superiority of our model over state-of-the-art baselines in urban flow generation. Further in-depth studies demonstrate the utility of generated urban flow data and the ability of our model for long-term flow generation and urban flow prediction. Our code is released at: https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/KSTDiff-Urban-flow-generation.

Yu Shang, Yuming Lin, Yu Zheng et al.

Cities, as the essential environment of human life, encompass diverse physical elements such as buildings, roads and vegetation, which continuously interact with dynamic entities like people and vehicles. Crafting realistic, interactive 3D urban environments is essential for nurturing AGI systems and constructing AI agents capable of perceiving, decision-making, and acting like humans in real-world environments. However, creating high-fidelity 3D urban environments usually entails extensive manual labor from designers, involving intricate detailing and representation of complex urban elements. Therefore, accomplishing this automatically remains a longstanding challenge. Toward this problem, we propose UrbanWorld, the first generative urban world model that can automatically create a customized, realistic and interactive 3D urban world with flexible control conditions. UrbanWorld incorporates four key stages in the generation pipeline: flexible 3D layout generation from OSM data or urban layout with semantic and height maps, urban scene design with Urban MLLM, controllable urban asset rendering via progressive 3D diffusion, and MLLM-assisted scene refinement. We conduct extensive quantitative analysis on five visual metrics, demonstrating that UrbanWorld achieves SOTA generation realism. Next, we provide qualitative results about the controllable generation capabilities of UrbanWorld using both textual and image-based prompts. Lastly, we verify the interactive nature of these environments by showcasing the agent perception and navigation within the created environments. We contribute UrbanWorld as an open-source tool available at https://github.com/Urban-World/UrbanWorld.

Hongyuan Su, Yu Zheng, Jingtao Ding et al.

The facility location problem (FLP) is a classical combinatorial optimization challenge aimed at strategically laying out facilities to maximize their accessibility. In this paper, we propose a reinforcement learning method tailored to solve large-scale urban FLP, capable of producing near-optimal solutions at superfast inference speed. We distill the essential swap operation from local search, and simulate it by intelligently selecting edges on a graph of urban regions, guided by a knowledge-informed graph neural network, thus sidestepping the need for heavy computation of local search. Extensive experiments on four US cities with different geospatial conditions demonstrate that our approach can achieve comparable performance to commercial solvers with less than 5\% accessibility loss, while displaying up to 1000 times speedup. We deploy our model as an online geospatial application at https://huggingface.co/spaces/randommmm/MFLP.

Chang Liu, Jingtao Ding, Yiwen Song et al.

Predicting the resilience of complex networks, which represents the ability to retain fundamental functionality amidst external perturbations or internal failures, plays a critical role in understanding and improving real-world complex systems. Traditional theoretical approaches grounded in nonlinear dynamical systems rely on prior knowledge of network dynamics. On the other hand, data-driven approaches frequently encounter the challenge of insufficient labeled data, a predicament commonly observed in real-world scenarios. In this paper, we introduce a novel resilience prediction framework for complex networks, designed to tackle this issue through generative data augmentation of network topology and dynamics. The core idea is the strategic utilization of the inherent joint distribution present in unlabeled network data, facilitating the learning process of the resilience predictor by illuminating the relationship between network topology and dynamics. Experiment results on three network datasets demonstrate that our proposed framework TDNetGen can achieve high prediction accuracy up to 85%-95%. Furthermore, the framework still demonstrates a pronounced augmentation capability in extreme low-data regimes, thereby underscoring its utility and robustness in enhancing the prediction of network resilience. We have open-sourced our code in the following link, https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/TDNetGen.

Yu Liu, Xin Zhang, Jingtao Ding et al.

Monitoring sustainable development goals requires accurate and timely socioeconomic statistics, while ubiquitous and frequently-updated urban imagery in web like satellite/street view images has emerged as an important source for socioeconomic prediction. Especially, recent studies turn to self-supervised contrastive learning with manually designed similarity metrics for urban imagery representation learning and further socioeconomic prediction, which however suffers from effectiveness and robustness issues. To address such issues, in this paper, we propose a Knowledge-infused Contrastive Learning (KnowCL) model for urban imagery-based socioeconomic prediction. Specifically, we firstly introduce knowledge graph (KG) to effectively model the urban knowledge in spatiality, mobility, etc., and then build neural network based encoders to learn representations of an urban image in associated semantic and visual spaces, respectively. Finally, we design a cross-modality based contrastive learning framework with a novel image-KG contrastive loss, which maximizes the mutual information between semantic and visual representations for knowledge infusion. Extensive experiments of applying the learnt visual representations for socioeconomic prediction on three datasets demonstrate the superior performance of KnowCL with over 30\% improvements on $R^2$ compared with baselines. Especially, our proposed KnowCL model can apply to both satellite and street imagery with both effectiveness and transferability achieved, which provides insights into urban imagery-based socioeconomic prediction.

Ruikun Li, Huandong Wang, Jingtao Ding et al.

Data-driven dynamics prediction often fails under environmental shifts, while traditional fine-tuning remains computationally prohibitive for hardware-constrained or data-scarce applications. We propose DynaDiff, a generative meta-learning framework that transitions the paradigm from gradient-based tuning or modulation to direct weight-space generation. Specifically, we first abstract expert weights as novel weight graphs, utilizing multi-head attention to explicitly capture topological coupling within weights. Subsequently, we design a functional loss to ensure that the generated models achieve consistency with expert models in physical behavior. Finally, we develop a dynamics-informed prompter that extracts cross-domain physical and spectral features from observation sequences to condition the diffusion model. Experiments demonstrate that DynaDiff boosts average prediction accuracy by 10.78% over competitive baselines. Furthermore, by pre-constructing a model zoo of expert predictors, we amortize the fine-tuning overhead into a one-time offline cost, significantly boosting deployment efficiency in new environments.

Jiahui Gong, Jingtao Ding, Fanjin Meng et al.

Mobile devices, especially smartphones, can support rich functions and have developed into indispensable tools in daily life. With the rise of generative AI services, smartphones can potentially transform into personalized assistants, anticipating user needs and scheduling services accordingly. Predicting user intents on smartphones, and reflecting anticipated activities based on past interactions and context, remains a pivotal step towards this vision. Existing research predominantly focuses on specific domains, neglecting the challenge of modeling diverse event sequences across dynamic contexts. Leveraging pre-trained language models (PLMs) offers a promising avenue, yet adapting PLMs to on-device user intent prediction presents significant challenges. To address these challenges, we propose PITuning, a Population-to-Individual Tuning framework. PITuning enhances common pattern extraction through dynamic event-to-intent transition modeling and addresses long-tailed preferences via adaptive unlearning strategies. Experimental results on real-world datasets demonstrate PITuning's superior intent prediction performance, highlighting its ability to capture long-tailed preferences and its practicality for on-device prediction scenarios.

Can Rong, Jingtao Ding, Zhicheng Liu et al.

The Origin-Destination~(OD) networks provide an estimation of the flow of people from every region to others in the city, which is an important research topic in transportation, urban simulation, etc. Given structural regional urban features, generating the OD network has become increasingly appealing to many researchers from diverse domains. However, existing works are limited in independent generation of each OD pair, i.e., flow of people from one region to another, overlooking the relations within the overall network. In this paper, we instead propose to generate the OD network, and design a graph denoising diffusion method to learn the conditional joint probability distribution of the nodes and edges within the OD network given city characteristics at region level. To overcome the learning difficulty of the OD networks covering over thousands of regions, we decompose the original one-shot generative modeling of the diffusion model into two cascaded stages, corresponding to the generation of network topology and the weights of edges, respectively. To further reproduce important network properties contained in the city-wide OD network, we design an elaborated graph denoising network structure including a node property augmentation module and a graph transformer backbone. Empirical experiments on data collected in three large US cities have verified that our method can generate OD matrices for new cities with network statistics remarkably similar with the ground truth, further achieving superior outperformance over competitive baselines in terms of the generation realism.

Yuan Yuan, Jingtao Ding, Jie Feng et al.

Urban spatio-temporal prediction is crucial for informed decision-making, such as traffic management, resource optimization, and emergence response. Despite remarkable breakthroughs in pretrained natural language models that enable one model to handle diverse tasks, a universal solution for spatio-temporal prediction remains challenging Existing prediction approaches are typically tailored for specific spatio-temporal scenarios, requiring task-specific model designs and extensive domain-specific training data. In this study, we introduce UniST, a universal model designed for general urban spatio-temporal prediction across a wide range of scenarios. Inspired by large language models, UniST achieves success through: (i) utilizing diverse spatio-temporal data from different scenarios, (ii) effective pre-training to capture complex spatio-temporal dynamics, (iii) knowledge-guided prompts to enhance generalization capabilities. These designs together unlock the potential of building a universal model for various scenarios Extensive experiments on more than 20 spatio-temporal scenarios demonstrate UniST's efficacy in advancing state-of-the-art performance, especially in few-shot and zero-shot prediction. The datasets and code implementation are released on https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/UniST.

Bin Chen, Zhuoya Meng, Fang Yang et al.

Accurate modeling of commuting flows is important for urban governance, traffic planning, and resource allocation. However, the combined influence of individual intentions, geographic constraints, and social dynamics leads to considerable heterogeneity in commuting patterns, making it difficult to develop generation models that generalize across cities. To address this issue, we propose SEDAN, a Structure-Enhanced Diffusion model conditioned on Attributed Nodes for generalizable OD matrix generation. SEDAN models a city as an attributed graph. Each region is treated as a node with demographic and point-of-interest features, and commuting flows are modeled as weighted edges. Adjacency and distance matrices are incorporated to characterize spatial structure. Based on this representation, we design a fusion mechanism within SEDAN to jointly model semantic information and spatial information. Regional semantic attributes are used to model latent travel demand through graph-transformer-based node interactions, while spatial structure is injected into the generation process as explicit constraints. The adjacency matrix guides attention weights to strengthen interactions between neighboring regions. Meanwhile, the distance matrix serves as a diffusion condition to capture spatial proximity and travel impedance. The fusion of urban semantics and spatial constraints enables SEDAN to generate OD matrices that are both behaviorally plausible and geographically coherent. Experiments on real-world OD datasets from U.S. cities show that SEDAN achieves a 7.38\% improvement in RMSE over the state-of-the-art baseline, WEDAN. It also remains robust across heterogeneous urban scenarios and varying structural patterns. Our work provides an effective and generalizable solution for commuting OD matrix generation. The code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/SEDAN.

En Xu, Jingtao Ding, Yong Li

Sequential recommender systems have achieved steady gains in offline accuracy, yet it remains unclear how close current models are to the intrinsic accuracy limit imposed by the data. A reliable, model-agnostic estimate of this ceiling would enable principled difficulty assessment and headroom estimation before costly model development. Existing predictability analyses typically combine entropy estimation with Fano's inequality inversion; however, in recommendation they are hindered by sensitivity to candidate-space specification and distortion from Fano-based scaling in low-predictability regimes. We develop an entropy-induced, training-free approach for quantifying accuracy limits in sequential recommendation, yielding a candidate-size-agnostic estimate. Experiments on controlled synthetic generators and diverse real-world benchmarks show that the estimator tracks oracle-controlled difficulty more faithfully than baselines, remains insensitive to candidate-set size, and achieves high rank consistency with best-achieved offline accuracy across state-of-the-art sequential recommenders (Spearman rho up to 0.914). It also supports user-group diagnostics by stratifying users by novelty preference, long-tail exposure, and activity, revealing systematic predictability differences. Furthermore, predictability can guide training data selection: training sets constructed from high-predictability users yield strong downstream performance under reduced data budgets. Overall, the proposed estimator provides a practical reference for assessing attainable accuracy limits, supporting user-group diagnostics, and informing data-centric decisions in sequential recommendation.

Jingtao Ding, Yunke Zhang, Yu Shang et al.

The concept of world models has garnered significant attention due to advancements in multimodal large language models such as GPT-4 and video generation models such as Sora, which are central to the pursuit of artificial general intelligence. This survey offers a comprehensive review of the literature on world models. Generally, world models are regarded as tools for either understanding the present state of the world or predicting its future dynamics. This review presents a systematic categorization of world models, emphasizing two primary functions: (1) constructing internal representations to understand the mechanisms of the world, and (2) predicting future states to simulate and guide decision-making. Initially, we examine the current progress in these two categories. We then explore the application of world models in key domains, including generative games, autonomous driving, robotics, and social simulacra, with a focus on how each domain utilizes these aspects. Finally, we outline key challenges and provide insights into potential future research directions. We summarize the representative papers along with their code repositories in https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/World-Model.

En Xu, Shihe Zhou, Huandong Wang et al.

Inferring a network's evolutionary history from a single final snapshot with limited temporal annotations is fundamental yet challenging. Existing approaches predominantly rely on topology alone, which often provides insufficient and noisy cues. This paper leverages network steady-state dynamics -- converged node states under a given dynamical process -- as an additional and widely accessible observation for network evolution history inference. We propose CS$^2$, which explicitly models structure-state coupling to capture how topology modulates steady states and how the two signals jointly improve edge discrimination for formation-order recovery. Experiments on six real temporal networks, evaluated under multiple dynamical processes, show that CS$^2$ consistently outperforms strong baselines, improving pairwise edge precedence accuracy by 4.0% on average and global ordering consistency (Spearman-$ρ$) by 7.7% on average. CS$^2$ also more faithfully recovers macroscopic evolution trajectories such as clustering formation, degree heterogeneity, and hub growth. Moreover, a steady-state-only variant remains competitive when reliable topology is limited, highlighting steady states as an independent signal for evolution inference.

Shuo Tang, Jiadong Zhang, Jian Xu et al.

While deep learning-based weather forecasting paradigms have made significant strides, addressing extreme weather diagnostics remains a formidable challenge. This gap exists primarily because the diagnostic process demands sophisticated multi-step logical reasoning, dynamic tool invocation, and expert-level prior judgment. Although agents possess inherent advantages in task decomposition and autonomous execution, current architectures are still hampered by critical bottlenecks: inadequate expert knowledge integration, a lack of professional-grade iterative reasoning loops, and the absence of fine-grained validation and evaluation systems for complex workflows under extreme conditions. To this end, we propose HVR-Met, a multi-agent meteorological diagnostic system characterized by the deep integration of expert knowledge. Its central innovation is the ``Hypothesis-Verification-Replanning'' closed-loop mechanism, which facilitates sophisticated iterative reasoning for anomalous meteorological signals during extreme weather events. To bridge gaps within existing evaluation frameworks, we further introduce a novel benchmark focused on atomic-level subtasks. Experimental evidence demonstrates that the system excels in complex diagnostic scenarios.

Yuan Yuan, Chenyang Shao, Jingtao Ding et al.

Spatio-temporal modeling is foundational for smart city applications, yet it is often hindered by data scarcity in many cities and regions. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel generative pre-training framework, GPD, for spatio-temporal few-shot learning with urban knowledge transfer. Unlike conventional approaches that heavily rely on common feature extraction or intricate few-shot learning designs, our solution takes a novel approach by performing generative pre-training on a collection of neural network parameters optimized with data from source cities. We recast spatio-temporal few-shot learning as pre-training a generative diffusion model, which generates tailored neural networks guided by prompts, allowing for adaptability to diverse data distributions and city-specific characteristics. GPD employs a Transformer-based denoising diffusion model, which is model-agnostic to integrate with powerful spatio-temporal neural networks. By addressing challenges arising from data gaps and the complexity of generalizing knowledge across cities, our framework consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on multiple real-world datasets for tasks such as traffic speed prediction and crowd flow prediction. The implementation of our approach is available: https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/GPD.

Hongyi Chen, Jingtao Ding, Yong Li et al.

Crowd simulation holds crucial applications in various domains, such as urban planning, architectural design, and traffic arrangement. In recent years, physics-informed machine learning methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in crowd simulation but fail to model the heterogeneity and multi-modality of human movement comprehensively. In this paper, we propose a social physics-informed diffusion model named SPDiff to mitigate the above gap. SPDiff takes both the interactive and historical information of crowds in the current timeframe to reverse the diffusion process, thereby generating the distribution of pedestrian movement in the subsequent timeframe. Inspired by the well-known social physics model, i.e., Social Force, regarding crowd dynamics, we design a crowd interaction module to guide the denoising process and further enhance this module with the equivariant properties of crowd interactions. To mitigate error accumulation in long-term simulations, we propose a multi-frame rollout training algorithm for diffusion modeling. Experiments conducted on two real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of SPDiff in terms of macroscopic and microscopic evaluation metrics. Code and appendix are available at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/SPDiff.

Chenyang Shao, Fengli Xu, Bingbing Fan et al.

The powerful reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have brought revolutionary changes to many fields, but their performance in human behaviour generation has not yet been extensively explored. This gap likely emerges because the internal processes governing behavioral intentions cannot be solely explained by abstract reasoning. Instead, they are also influenced by a multitude of factors, including social norms and personal preference. Inspired by the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), we develop a LLM workflow named Chain-of-Planned Behaviour (CoPB) for mobility behaviour generation, which reflects the important spatio-temporal dynamics of human activities. Through exploiting the cognitive structures of attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behaviour control in TPB, CoPB significantly enhance the ability of LLMs to reason the intention of next movement. Specifically, CoPB substantially reduces the error rate of mobility intention generation from 57.8% to 19.4%. To improve the scalability of the proposed CoPB workflow, we further explore the synergy between LLMs and mechanistic models. We find mechanistic mobility models, such as gravity model, can effectively map mobility intentions to physical mobility behaviours. The strategy of integrating CoPB with gravity model can reduce the token cost by 97.7% and achieve better performance simultaneously. Besides, the proposed CoPB workflow can facilitate GPT-4-turbo to automatically generate high quality labels for mobility behavior reasoning. We show such labels can be leveraged to fine-tune the smaller-scale, open source LLaMA 3-8B, which significantly reduces usage costs without sacrificing the quality of the generated behaviours.

Yuan Yuan, Chonghua Han, Jingtao Ding et al.

The urban environment is characterized by complex spatio-temporal dynamics arising from diverse human activities and interactions. Effectively modeling these dynamics is essential for understanding and optimizing urban systems. In this work, we introduce UrbanDiT, a foundation model for open-world urban spatio-temporal learning that successfully scales up diffusion transformers in this field. UrbanDiT pioneers a unified model that integrates diverse data sources and types while learning universal spatio-temporal patterns across different cities and scenarios. This allows the model to unify both multi-data and multi-task learning, and effectively support a wide range of spatio-temporal applications. Its key innovation lies in the elaborated prompt learning framework, which adaptively generates both data-driven and task-specific prompts, guiding the model to deliver superior performance across various urban applications. UrbanDiT offers three advantages: 1) It unifies diverse data types, such as grid-based and graph-based data, into a sequential format; 2) With task-specific prompts, it supports a wide range of tasks, including bi-directional spatio-temporal prediction, temporal interpolation, spatial extrapolation, and spatio-temporal imputation; and 3) It generalizes effectively to open-world scenarios, with its powerful zero-shot capabilities outperforming nearly all baselines with training data. UrbanDiT sets up a new benchmark for foundation models in the urban spatio-temporal domain. Code and datasets are publicly available at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/UrbanDiT.

Zihan Yu, Jingtao Ding, Yong Li et al. · tsinghua

Symbolic regression, a task discovering the formula best fitting the given data, is typically based on the heuristical search. These methods usually update candidate formulas to obtain new ones with lower prediction errors iteratively. However, since formulas with similar function shapes may have completely different symbolic forms, the prediction error does not decrease monotonously as the search approaches the target formula, causing the low recovery rate of existing methods. To solve this problem, we propose a novel search objective based on the minimum description length, which reflects the distance from the target and decreases monotonically as the search approaches the correct form of the target formula. To estimate the minimum description length of any input data, we design a neural network, MDLformer, which enables robust and scalable estimation through large-scale training. With the MDLformer's output as the search objective, we implement a symbolic regression method, SR4MDL, that can effectively recover the correct mathematical form of the formula. Extensive experiments illustrate its excellent performance in recovering formulas from data. Our method successfully recovers around 50 formulas across two benchmark datasets comprising 133 problems, outperforming state-of-the-art methods by 43.92%. Experiments on 122 unseen black-box problems further demonstrate its generalization performance. We release our code at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/SR4MDL .

Zhi Sheng, Daisy Yuan, Jingtao Ding et al.

Accurate prediction of mobile traffic, i.e., network traffic from cellular base stations, is crucial for optimizing network performance and supporting urban development. However, the non-stationary nature of mobile traffic, driven by human activity and environmental changes, leads to both regular patterns and abrupt variations. Diffusion models excel in capturing such complex temporal dynamics due to their ability to capture the inherent uncertainties. Most existing approaches prioritize designing novel denoising networks but often neglect the critical role of noise itself, potentially leading to sub-optimal performance. In this paper, we introduce a novel perspective by emphasizing the role of noise in the denoising process. Our analysis reveals that noise fundamentally shapes mobile traffic predictions, exhibiting distinct and consistent patterns. We propose NPDiff, a framework that decomposes noise into prior and residual components, with the prior} derived from data dynamics, enhancing the model's ability to capture both regular and abrupt variations. NPDiff can seamlessly integrate with various diffusion-based prediction models, delivering predictions that are effective, efficient, and robust. Extensive experiments demonstrate that it achieves superior performance with an improvement over 30\%, offering a new perspective on leveraging diffusion models in this domain. We provide code and data at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/NPDiff.

Yuan Yuan, Jingtao Ding, Chonghua Han et al.

Urban spatio-temporal flow prediction, encompassing traffic flows and crowd flows, is crucial for optimizing city infrastructure and managing traffic and emergency responses. Traditional approaches have relied on separate models tailored to either grid-based data, representing cities as uniform cells, or graph-based data, modeling cities as networks of nodes and edges. In this paper, we build UniFlow, a foundational model for general urban flow prediction that unifies both grid-based and graphbased data. We first design a multi-view spatio-temporal patching mechanism to standardize different data into a consistent sequential format and then introduce a spatio-temporal transformer architecture to capture complex correlations and dynamics. To leverage shared spatio-temporal patterns across different data types and facilitate effective cross-learning, we propose SpatioTemporal Memory Retrieval Augmentation (ST-MRA). By creating structured memory modules to store shared spatio-temporal patterns, ST-MRA enhances predictions through adaptive memory retrieval. Extensive experiments demonstrate that UniFlow outperforms existing models in both grid-based and graph-based flow prediction, excelling particularly in scenarios with limited data availability, showcasing its superior performance and broad applicability. The datasets and code implementation have been released on https://github.com/YuanYuan98/UniFlow.

Jinwei Zeng, Yu Liu, Jingtao Ding et al.

Accounting for over 20% of the total carbon emissions, the precise estimation of on-road transportation carbon emissions is crucial for carbon emission monitoring and efficient mitigation policy formulation. However, existing estimation methods typically depend on hard-to-collect individual statistics of vehicle miles traveled to calculate emissions, thereby suffering from high data collection difficulty. To relieve this issue by utilizing the strong pattern recognition of artificial intelligence, we incorporate two sources of open data representative of the transportation demand and capacity factors, the origin-destination (OD) flow data and the road network data, to build a hierarchical heterogeneous graph learning method for on-road carbon emission estimation (HENCE). Specifically, a hierarchical graph consisting of the road network level, community level, and region level is constructed to model the multi-scale road network-based connectivity and travel connection between spatial areas. Heterogeneous graphs consisting of OD links and spatial links are further built at both the community level and region level to capture the intrinsic interactions between travel demand and road network accessibility. Extensive experiments on two large-scale real-world datasets demonstrate HENCE's effectiveness and superiority with R-squared exceeding 0.75 and outperforming baselines by 9.60% on average, validating its success in pioneering the use of artificial intelligence to empower carbon emission management and sustainability development. The implementation codes are available at this link: https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/HENCE.

Yuheng Zhang, Yuan Yuan, Jingtao Ding et al.

With global urbanization, the focus on sustainable cities has largely grown, driving research into equity, resilience, and urban planning, which often relies on mobility data. The rise of web-based apps and mobile devices has provided valuable user data for mobility-related research. However, real-world mobility data is costly and raises privacy concerns. To protect privacy while retaining key features of real-world movement, the demand for synthetic data has steadily increased. Recent advances in diffusion models have shown great potential for mobility trajectory generation due to their ability to model randomness and uncertainty. However, existing approaches often directly apply identically distributed (i.i.d.) noise sampling from image generation techniques, which fail to account for the spatiotemporal correlations and social interactions that shape urban mobility patterns. In this paper, we propose CoDiffMob, a diffusion model for urban mobility generation with collaborative noise priors, we emphasize the critical role of noise in diffusion models for generating mobility data. By leveraging both individual movement characteristics and population-wide dynamics, we construct novel collaborative noise priors that provide richer and more informative guidance throughout the generation process. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our method, with generated data accurately capturing both individual preferences and collective patterns, achieving an improvement of over 32%. Furthermore, it can effectively replace web-derived mobility data to better support downstream applications, while safeguarding user privacy and fostering a more secure and ethical web. This highlights its tremendous potential for applications in sustainable city-related research. The code and data are available at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/CoDiffMob.

Chen Gao, Xiaochong Lan, Nian Li et al.

Agent-based modeling and simulation has evolved as a powerful tool for modeling complex systems, offering insights into emergent behaviors and interactions among diverse agents. Integrating large language models into agent-based modeling and simulation presents a promising avenue for enhancing simulation capabilities. This paper surveys the landscape of utilizing large language models in agent-based modeling and simulation, examining their challenges and promising future directions. In this survey, since this is an interdisciplinary field, we first introduce the background of agent-based modeling and simulation and large language model-empowered agents. We then discuss the motivation for applying large language models to agent-based simulation and systematically analyze the challenges in environment perception, human alignment, action generation, and evaluation. Most importantly, we provide a comprehensive overview of the recent works of large language model-empowered agent-based modeling and simulation in multiple scenarios, which can be divided into four domains: cyber, physical, social, and hybrid, covering simulation of both real-world and virtual environments. Finally, since this area is new and quickly evolving, we discuss the open problems and promising future directions.

Chonghua Han, Yuan Yuan, Yukun Liu et al.

Human mobility prediction is vital for urban planning, transportation optimization, and personalized services. However, the inherent randomness, non-uniform time intervals, and complex patterns of human mobility, compounded by the heterogeneity introduced by varying city structures, infrastructure, and population densities, present significant challenges in modeling. Existing solutions often require training separate models for each city due to distinct spatial representations and geographic coverage. In this paper, we propose UniMove, a unified model for multi-city human mobility prediction, addressing two challenges: (1) constructing universal spatial representations for effective token sharing across cities, and (2) modeling heterogeneous mobility patterns from varying city characteristics. We propose a trajectory-location dual-tower architecture, with a location tower for universal spatial encoding and a trajectory tower for sequential mobility modeling. We also design MoE Transformer blocks to adaptively select experts to handle diverse movement patterns. Extensive experiments across multiple datasets from diverse cities demonstrate that UniMove truly embodies the essence of a unified model. By enabling joint training on multi-city data with mutual data enhancement, it significantly improves mobility prediction accuracy by over 10.2\%. UniMove represents a key advancement toward realizing a true foundational model with a unified architecture for human mobility. We release the implementation at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/UniMove/.

Qinglong Yang, Haoming Li, Haotian Zhao et al.

Mobile GUI agents are becoming critical tools for enhancing human-device interaction efficiency, with multimodal large language models (MLLMs) emerging as dominant paradigms in this domain. Current agents, however, are limited to following explicit human instructions, resulting in insufficient capability for proactive intent anticipation. Additionally, these agents fail to leverage the contextual information associated with users during task execution, thereby neglecting potentially vast differences in user preferences. To address these challenges, we introduce the FingerTip benchmark. It contains two new tracks: proactive task suggestions by analyzing environment observation and users' previous intents, and personalized task execution by catering to users' action preferences. We collected unique human demonstrations of multi-step Android device interactions across a variety of everyday apps. These demonstrations are not isolated but are continuously acquired from the users' long-term usage in their real lives, and encompass essential user-related contextual information. Our experiments reveal challenges of the tasks we propose. The model fine-tuned with the data we collected effectively utilized user information and achieved good results, highlighting the potential of our approach in building more user-oriented mobile GUI agents. Our code is open-source at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/FingerTip-57B8 for reproducibility.

Hongyi Chen, Jianhai Shu, Jingtao Ding et al.

Langevin dynamics sampling suffers from extremely low generation speed, fundamentally limited by numerous fine-grained iterations to converge to the target distribution. We introduce PID-controlled Langevin Dynamics (PIDLD), a novel sampling acceleration algorithm that reinterprets the sampling process using control-theoretic principles. By treating energy gradients as feedback signals, PIDLD combines historical gradients (the integral term) and gradient trends (the derivative term) to efficiently traverse energy landscapes and adaptively stabilize, thereby significantly reducing the number of iterations required to produce high-quality samples. Our approach requires no additional training, datasets, or prior information, making it immediately integrable with any Langevin-based method. Extensive experiments across image generation and reasoning tasks demonstrate that PIDLD achieves higher quality with fewer steps, making Langevin-based generative models more practical for efficiency-critical applications. The implementation can be found at \href{https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/PIDLD}{https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/PIDLD}.

Can Rong, Xin Zhang, Yanxin Xi et al.

Commuting Origin-destination~(OD) flows, capturing daily population mobility of citizens, are vital for sustainable development across cities around the world. However, it is challenging to obtain the data due to the high cost of travel surveys and privacy concerns. Surprisingly, we find that satellite imagery, publicly available across the globe, contains rich urban semantic signals to support high-quality OD flow generation, with over 98\% expressiveness of traditional multisource hard-to-collect urban sociodemographic, economics, land use, and point of interest data. This inspires us to design a novel data generator, GlODGen, which can generate OD flow data for any cities of interest around the world. Specifically, GlODGen first leverages Vision-Language Geo-Foundation Models to extract urban semantic signals related to human mobility from satellite imagery. These features are then combined with population data to form region-level representations, which are used to generate OD flows via graph diffusion models. Extensive experiments on 4 continents and 6 representative cities show that GlODGen has great generalizability across diverse urban environments on different continents and can generate OD flow data for global cities highly consistent with real-world mobility data. We implement GlODGen as an automated tool, seamlessly integrating data acquisition and curation, urban semantic feature extraction, and OD flow generation together. It has been released at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/generate-od-pubtools.

Jinwei Zeng, Yu Liu, Guozhen Zhang et al.

Accurately estimating high-resolution carbon emissions is crucial for effective emission governance and mitigation planning. While conventional methods for precise carbon accounting are hindered by substantial data collection efforts, the rise of open data and advanced learning techniques offers a promising solution. Once an open data-based prediction model is developed and trained, it can easily infer emissions for new areas based on available open data. To address this, we incorporate two modalities of open data, satellite images and point-of-interest (POI) data, to predict high-resolution urban carbon emissions, with satellite images providing macroscopic and static and POI data offering fine-grained and relatively dynamic functionality information. However, estimating high-resolution carbon emissions presents two significant challenges: the intertwined and implicit effects of various functionalities on carbon emissions, and the complex spatial contiguity correlations that give rise to the agglomeration effect. Our model, OpenCarbon, features two major designs that target the challenges: a cross-modality information extraction and fusion module to extract complementary functionality information from two modules and model their interactions, and a neighborhood-informed aggregation module to capture the spatial contiguity correlations. Extensive experiments demonstrate our model's superiority, with a significant performance gain of 26.6\% on R2. Further generalizability tests and case studies also show OpenCarbon's capacity to capture the intrinsic relation between urban functionalities and carbon emissions, validating its potential to empower efficient carbon governance and targeted carbon mitigation planning. Codes and data are available: https://github.com/JinweiZzz/OpenCarbon.

Hongyi Chen, Jingtao Ding, Xiaojun Liang et al.

Source localization in graph information propagation is essential for mitigating network disruptions, including misinformation spread, cyber threats, and infrastructure failures. Existing deep generative approaches face significant challenges in real-world applications due to limited propagation data availability. We present SIDSL (\textbf{S}tructure-prior \textbf{I}nformed \textbf{D}iffusion model for \textbf{S}ource \textbf{L}ocalization), a generative diffusion framework that leverages topology-aware priors to enable robust source localization with limited data. SIDSL addresses three key challenges: unknown propagation patterns through structure-based source estimations via graph label propagation, complex topology-propagation relationships via a propagation-enhanced conditional denoiser with GNN-parameterized label propagation module, and class imbalance through structure-prior biased diffusion initialization. By learning pattern-invariant features from synthetic data generated by established propagation models, SIDSL enables effective knowledge transfer to real-world scenarios. Experimental evaluation on four real-world datasets demonstrates superior performance with 7.5-13.3\% F1 score improvements over baselines, including over 19\% improvement in few-shot and 40\% in zero-shot settings, validating the framework's effectiveness for practical source localization. Our code can be found \href{https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/SIDSL}{here}.

Yu Zheng, Hongyuan Su, Jingtao Ding et al.

Millions of slum dwellers suffer from poor accessibility to urban services due to inadequate road infrastructure within slums, and road planning for slums is critical to the sustainable development of cities. Existing re-blocking or heuristic methods are either time-consuming which cannot generalize to different slums, or yield sub-optimal road plans in terms of accessibility and construction costs. In this paper, we present a deep reinforcement learning based approach to automatically layout roads for slums. We propose a generic graph model to capture the topological structure of a slum, and devise a novel graph neural network to select locations for the planned roads. Through masked policy optimization, our model can generate road plans that connect places in a slum at minimal construction costs. Extensive experiments on real-world slums in different countries verify the effectiveness of our model, which can significantly improve accessibility by 14.3% against existing baseline methods. Further investigations on transferring across different tasks demonstrate that our model can master road planning skills in simple scenarios and adapt them to much more complicated ones, indicating the potential of applying our model in real-world slum upgrading. The code and data are available at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/road-planning-for-slums.

Yuan Yuan, Jingtao Ding, Chenyang Shao et al.

Spatio-temporal point process (STPP) is a stochastic collection of events accompanied with time and space. Due to computational complexities, existing solutions for STPPs compromise with conditional independence between time and space, which consider the temporal and spatial distributions separately. The failure to model the joint distribution leads to limited capacities in characterizing the spatio-temporal entangled interactions given past events. In this work, we propose a novel parameterization framework for STPPs, which leverages diffusion models to learn complex spatio-temporal joint distributions. We decompose the learning of the target joint distribution into multiple steps, where each step can be faithfully described by a Gaussian distribution. To enhance the learning of each step, an elaborated spatio-temporal co-attention module is proposed to capture the interdependence between the event time and space adaptively. For the first time, we break the restrictions on spatio-temporal dependencies in existing solutions, and enable a flexible and accurate modeling paradigm for STPPs. Extensive experiments from a wide range of fields, such as epidemiology, seismology, crime, and urban mobility, demonstrate that our framework outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines remarkably, with an average improvement of over 50%. Further in-depth analyses validate its ability to capture spatio-temporal interactions, which can learn adaptively for different scenarios. The datasets and source code are available online: https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/Spatio-temporal-Diffusion-Point-Processes.

Jingtao Ding, Chang Liu, Yu Zheng et al. · tsinghua

Complex networks pervade various real-world systems, from the natural environment to human societies. The essence of these networks is in their ability to transition and evolve from microscopic disorder-where network topology and node dynamics intertwine-to a macroscopic order characterized by certain collective behaviors. Over the past two decades, complex network science has significantly enhanced our understanding of the statistical mechanics, structures, and dynamics underlying real-world networks. Despite these advancements, there remain considerable challenges in exploring more realistic systems and enhancing practical applications. The emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, coupled with the abundance of diverse real-world network data, has heralded a new era in complex network science research. This survey aims to systematically address the potential advantages of AI in overcoming the lingering challenges of complex network research. It endeavors to summarize the pivotal research problems and provide an exhaustive review of the corresponding methodologies and applications. Through this comprehensive survey-the first of its kind on AI for complex networks-we expect to provide valuable insights that will drive further research and advancement in this interdisciplinary field.

Fanjin Meng, Jingtao Ding, Nian Li et al.

Human daily behavior unfolds as complex sequences shaped by intentions, preferences, and context. Effectively modeling these behaviors is crucial for intelligent systems such as personal assistants and recommendation engines. While recent advances in deep learning and behavior pre-training have improved behavior prediction, key challenges remain--particularly in handling long-tail behaviors, enhancing interpretability, and supporting multiple tasks within a unified framework. Large language models (LLMs) offer a promising direction due to their semantic richness, strong interpretability, and generative capabilities. However, the structural and modal differences between behavioral data and natural language limit the direct applicability of LLMs. To address this gap, we propose Behavior Understanding Alignment (BUA), a novel framework that integrates LLMs into human behavior modeling through a structured curriculum learning process. BUA employs sequence embeddings from pretrained behavior models as alignment anchors and guides the LLM through a three-stage curriculum, while a multi-round dialogue setting introduces prediction and generation capabilities. Experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate that BUA significantly outperforms existing methods in both tasks, highlighting its effectiveness and flexibility in applying LLMs to complex human behavior modeling.

Jie Feng, Jinwei Zeng, Qingyue Long et al. · tsinghua

Over the past year, the development of large language models (LLMs) has brought spatial intelligence into focus, with much attention on vision-based embodied intelligence. However, spatial intelligence spans a broader range of disciplines and scales, from navigation and urban planning to remote sensing and earth science. What are the differences and connections between spatial intelligence across these fields? In this paper, we first review human spatial cognition and its implications for spatial intelligence in LLMs. We then examine spatial memory, knowledge representations, and abstract reasoning in LLMs, highlighting their roles and connections. Finally, we analyze spatial intelligence across scales -- from embodied to urban and global levels -- following a framework that progresses from spatial memory and understanding to spatial reasoning and intelligence. Through this survey, we aim to provide insights into interdisciplinary spatial intelligence research and inspire future studies.

Yu Liu, Shu Yang, Jingtao Ding et al.

By representing knowledge in a primary triple associated with additional attribute-value qualifiers, hyper-relational knowledge graph (HKG) that generalizes triple-based knowledge graph (KG) has been attracting research attention recently. Compared with KG, HKG is enriched with the semantic qualifiers as well as the hyper-relational graph structure. However, to model HKG, existing studies mainly focus on either semantic information or structural information therein, which however fail to capture both simultaneously. To tackle this issue, in this paper, we generalize the hyperedge expansion in hypergraph learning and propose an equivalent transformation for HKG modeling, referred to as TransEQ. Specifically, the equivalent transformation transforms a HKG to a KG, which considers both semantic and structural characteristics. Then an encoder-decoder framework is developed to bridge the modeling research between KG and HKG. In the encoder part, KG-based graph neural networks are leveraged for structural modeling; while in the decoder part, various HKG-based scoring functions are exploited for semantic modeling. Especially, we design the sharing embedding mechanism in the encoder-decoder framework with semantic relatedness captured. We further theoretically prove that TransEQ preserves complete information in the equivalent transformation, and also achieves full expressivity. Finally, extensive experiments on three benchmarks demonstrate the superior performance of TransEQ in terms of both effectiveness and efficiency. On the largest benchmark WikiPeople, TransEQ significantly improves the state-of-the-art models by 15\% on MRR.

En Xu, Can Rong, Jingtao Ding et al.

The evolutionary processes of complex systems contain critical information regarding their functional characteristics. The generation time of edges provides insights into the historical evolution of various networked complex systems, such as protein-protein interaction networks, ecosystems, and social networks. Recovering these evolutionary processes holds significant scientific value, including aiding in the interpretation of the evolution of protein-protein interaction networks. However, existing methods are capable of predicting the generation times of remaining edges given a partial temporal network but often perform poorly in cross-network prediction tasks. These methods frequently fail in edge generation time recovery tasks for static networks that lack timestamps. In this work, we adopt a comparative paradigm-based framework that fuses multiple networks for training, enabling cross-network learning of the relationship between network structure and edge generation times. Compared to separate training, this approach yields an average accuracy improvement of 16.98%. Furthermore, given the difficulty in collecting temporal networks, we propose a novel diffusion-model-based generation method to produce a large number of temporal networks. By combining real temporal networks with generated ones for training, we achieve an additional average accuracy improvement of 5.46% through joint training.

En Xu, Huandong Wang, Yunke Zhang et al.

Urban systems are typical examples of complex systems, where the integration of physics-based modeling with artificial intelligence (AI) presents a promising paradigm for enhancing predictive accuracy, interpretability, and decision-making. In this context, AI excels at capturing complex, nonlinear relationships, while physics-based models ensure consistency with real-world laws and provide interpretable insights. We provide a comprehensive review of physics-informed AI methods in urban applications. The proposed taxonomy categorizes existing approaches into three paradigms - Physics-Integrated AI, Physics-AI Hybrid Ensemble, and AI-Integrated Physics - and further details seven representative methods. This classification clarifies the varying degrees and directions of physics-AI integration, guiding the selection and development of appropriate methods based on application needs and data availability. We systematically examine their applications across eight key urban domains: energy, environment, economy, transportation, information, public services, emergency management, and the urban system as a whole. Our analysis highlights how these methodologies leverage physical laws and data-driven models to address urban challenges, enhancing system reliability, efficiency, and adaptability. By synthesizing existing methodologies and their urban applications, we identify critical gaps and outline future research directions, paving the way toward next-generation intelligent urban system modeling.

Chonghua Han, Yuan Yuan, Jingtao Ding et al.

The success of foundation models in language has inspired a new wave of general-purpose models for human mobility. However, existing approaches struggle to scale effectively due to two fundamental limitations: a failure to use meaningful basic units to represent movement, and an inability to capture the vast diversity of patterns found in large-scale data. In this work, we develop MoveGPT, a large-scale foundation model specifically architected to overcome these barriers. MoveGPT is built upon two key innovations: (1) a unified location encoder that maps geographically disjoint locations into a shared semantic space, enabling pre-training on a global scale; and (2) a Spatially-Aware Mixture-of-Experts Transformer that develops specialized experts to efficiently capture diverse mobility patterns. Pre-trained on billion-scale datasets, MoveGPT establishes a new state-of-the-art across a wide range of downstream tasks, achieving performance gains of up to 35% on average. It also demonstrates strong generalization capabilities to unseen cities. Crucially, our work provides empirical evidence of scaling ability in human mobility, validating a clear path toward building increasingly capable foundation models in this domain.

Fanjin Meng, Jingtao Ding, Jiahui Gong et al.

Predicting user behavior is essential for intelligent assistant services, yet deep learning models often struggle to capture long-tailed behaviors. Large language models (LLMs), with their pretraining on vast corpora containing rich behavioral knowledge, offer promise. However, existing fine-tuning approaches tend to overfit to frequent ``anchor'' behaviors, reducing their ability to predict less common ``tail'' behaviors. In this paper, we introduce BehaviorLM, a progressive fine-tuning approach that addresses this issue. In the first stage, LLMs are fine-tuned on anchor behaviors while preserving general behavioral knowledge. In the second stage, fine-tuning uses a balanced subset of all behaviors based on sample difficulty to improve tail behavior predictions without sacrificing anchor performance. Experimental results on two real-world datasets demonstrate that BehaviorLM robustly predicts both anchor and tail behaviors and effectively leverages LLM behavioral knowledge to master tail behavior prediction with few-shot examples.

Jiahui Gong, Jingtao Ding, Fanjin Meng et al.

In recent years, foundational models have revolutionized the fields of language and vision, demonstrating remarkable abilities in understanding and generating complex data; however, similar advances in user behavior modeling have been limited, largely due to the complexity of behavioral data and the challenges involved in capturing intricate temporal and contextual relationships in user activities. To address this, we propose BehaveGPT, a foundational model designed specifically for large-scale user behavior prediction. Leveraging transformer-based architecture and a novel pretraining paradigm, BehaveGPT is trained on vast user behavior datasets, allowing it to learn complex behavior patterns and support a range of downstream tasks, including next behavior prediction, long-term generation, and cross-domain adaptation. Our approach introduces the DRO-based pretraining paradigm tailored for user behavior data, which improves model generalization and transferability by equitably modeling both head and tail behaviors. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that BehaveGPT outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving more than a 10% improvement in macro and weighted recall, showcasing its ability to effectively capture and predict user behavior. Furthermore, we measure the scaling law in the user behavior domain for the first time on the Honor dataset, providing insights into how model performance scales with increased data and parameter sizes.

Zhaoyi Li, Jingtao Ding, Yong Li et al.

Flow Matching (FM) algorithm achieves remarkable results in generative tasks especially in robotic manipulation. Building upon the foundations of diffusion models, the simulation-free paradigm of FM enables simple and efficient training, but inherently introduces a train-inference gap. Specifically, we cannot assess the model's output during the training phase. In contrast, other generative models including Variational Autoencoder (VAE), Normalizing Flow and Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) directly optimize on the reconstruction loss. Such a gap is particularly evident in scenarios that demand high precision, such as robotic manipulation. Moreover, we show that FM's over-pursuit of straight predefined paths may introduce some serious problems such as stiffness into the system. These motivate us to fine-tune FM via Maximum Likelihood Estimation of reconstructions - an approach made feasible by FM's underlying smooth ODE formulation, in contrast to the stochastic differential equations (SDEs) used in diffusion models. This paper first theoretically analyzes the relation between training loss and inference error in FM. Then we propose a method of fine-tuning FM via Maximum Likelihood Estimation of reconstructions, which includes both straightforward fine-tuning and residual-based fine-tuning approaches. Furthermore, through specifically designed architectures, the residual-based fine-tuning can incorporate the contraction property into the model, which is crucial for the model's robustness and interpretability. Experimental results in image generation and robotic manipulation verify that our method reliably improves the inference performance of FM.

Wanjin Feng, Yuan Yuan, Jingtao Ding et al.

In the era of increasingly complex AI models for time series forecasting, progress is often measured by marginal improvements on benchmark leaderboards. However, this approach suffers from a fundamental flaw: standard evaluation metrics conflate a model's performance with the data's intrinsic unpredictability. To address this pressing challenge, we introduce a novel, predictability-aligned diagnostic framework grounded in spectral coherence. Our framework makes two primary contributions: the Spectral Coherence Predictability (SCP), a computationally efficient ($O(N\log N)$) and task-aligned score that quantifies the inherent difficulty of a given forecasting instance, and the Linear Utilization Ratio (LUR), a frequency-resolved diagnostic tool that precisely measures how effectively a model exploits the linearly predictable information within the data. We validate our framework's effectiveness and leverage it to reveal two core insights. First, we provide the first systematic evidence of "predictability drift", demonstrating that a task's forecasting difficulty varies sharply over time. Second, our evaluation reveals a key architectural trade-off: complex models are superior for low-predictability data, whereas linear models are highly effective on more predictable tasks. We advocate for a paradigm shift, moving beyond simplistic aggregate scores toward a more insightful, predictability-aware evaluation that fosters fairer model comparisons and a deeper understanding of model behavior.

Fanjin Meng, Yuan Yuan, Jingtao Ding et al.

Mobility Foundation Models (MFMs) have advanced the modeling of human movement patterns, yet they face a ceiling due to limitations in data scale and semantic understanding. While Large Language Models (LLMs) offer powerful semantic reasoning, they lack the innate understanding of spatio-temporal statistics required for generating physically plausible mobility trajectories. To address these gaps, we propose MoveFM-R, a novel framework that unlocks the full potential of mobility foundation models by leveraging language-driven semantic reasoning capabilities. It tackles two key challenges: the vocabulary mismatch between continuous geographic coordinates and discrete language tokens, and the representation gap between the latent vectors of MFMs and the semantic world of LLMs. MoveFM-R is built on three core innovations: a semantically enhanced location encoding to bridge the geography-language gap, a progressive curriculum to align the LLM's reasoning with mobility patterns, and an interactive self-reflection mechanism for conditional trajectory generation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MoveFM-R significantly outperforms existing MFM-based and LLM-based baselines. It also shows robust generalization in zero-shot settings and excels at generating realistic trajectories from natural language instructions. By synthesizing the statistical power of MFMs with the deep semantic understanding of LLMs, MoveFM-R pioneers a new paradigm that enables a more comprehensive, interpretable, and powerful modeling of human mobility. The implementation of MoveFM-R is available online at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/MoveFM-R-CDE7/.

Chang Liu, Bohao Zhao, Jingtao Ding et al.

Accurately forecasting chaotic systems, prevalent in domains such as weather prediction and fluid dynamics, remains a significant scientific challenge. The inherent sensitivity of these systems to initial conditions, coupled with a scarcity of observational data, severely constrains traditional modeling approaches. Since these models are typically trained for a specific system, they lack the generalization capacity necessary for real-world applications, which demand robust zero-shot or few-shot forecasting on novel or data-limited scenarios. To overcome this generalization barrier, we propose ChaosNexus, a foundation model pre-trained on a diverse corpus of chaotic dynamics. ChaosNexus employs a novel multi-scale architecture named ScaleFormer augmented with Mixture-of-Experts layers, to capture both universal patterns and system-specific behaviors. The model demonstrates state-of-the-art zero-shot generalization across both synthetic and real-world benchmarks. On a large-scale testbed comprising over 9,000 synthetic chaotic systems, it improves the fidelity of long-term attractor statistics by more than 40% compared to the leading baseline. This robust performance extends to real-world applications with exceptional data efficiency. For instance, in 5-day global weather forecasting, ChaosNexus achieves a competitive zero-shot mean error below 1 degree, a result that further improves with few-shot fine-tuning. Moreover, experiments on the scaling behavior of ChaosNexus provide a guiding principle for scientific foundation models: cross-system generalization stems from the diversity of training systems, rather than sheer data volume.

Zihan Yu, Guanren Wang, Jingtao Ding et al. · tsinghua

Symbolic regression discovers accurate and interpretable formulas to describe given data, thereby providing scientific insights for domain experts and promoting scientific discovery. However, existing symbolic regression methods often use complexity metrics as a proxy for interoperability, which only considers the size of the formula but ignores its internal mathematical structure. Therefore, while they can discover formulas with compact forms, the discovered formulas often have structures that are difficult to analyze or interpret mathematically. In this work, inspired by the observation that physical formulas are typically numerically stable under limited calculation precision, we propose the Effective Information Criterion (EIC). It treats formulas as information processing systems with specific internal structures and identifies the unreasonable structure in them by the loss of significant digits or the amplification of rounding noise as data flows through the system. We find that this criterion reveals the gap between the structural rationality of models discovered by existing symbolic regression algorithms and real-world physical formulas. Combining EIC with various search-based symbolic regression algorithms improves their performance on the Pareto frontier and reduces the irrational structure in the results. Combining EIC with generative-based algorithms reduces the number of samples required for pre-training, improving sample efficiency by 2~4 times. Finally, for different formulas with similar accuracy and complexity, EIC shows a 70.2% agreement with 108 human experts' preferences for formula interpretability, demonstrating that EIC, by measuring the unreasonable structures in formulas, actually reflects the formula's interpretability.

Yu Zheng, Jingtao Ding, Depeng Jin et al.

Many complex networks display remarkable resilience under external perturbations, internal failures and environmental changes, yet they can swiftly deteriorate into dysfunction upon the removal of a few keystone nodes. Discovering theories that measure network resilience offers the potential to prevent catastrophic collapses--from species extinctions to financial crise--with profound implications for real-world systems. Current resilience theories address the problem from a single perspective of topology, neglecting the crucial role of system dynamics, due to the intrinsic complexity of the coupling between topology and dynamics which exceeds the capabilities of human analytical methods. Here, we report an automatic method for resilience theory discovery, which learns from how AI solves a complicated network dismantling problem and symbolizes its network attack strategies into theoretical formulas. This proposed self-inductive approach discovers the first resilience theory that accounts for both topology and dynamics, highlighting how the correlation between node degree and state shapes overall network resilience, and offering insights for designing early warning signals of systematic collapses. Additionally, our approach discovers formulas that refine existing well-established resilience theories with over 37.5% improvement in accuracy, significantly advancing human understanding of complex networks with AI.

Haoxin Li, Jingtao Ding, Jiahui Gong et al.

Predicting human daily behavior is challenging due to the complexity of routine patterns and short-term fluctuations. While data-driven models have improved behavior prediction by leveraging empirical data from various platforms and devices, the reliance on sensitive, large-scale user data raises privacy concerns and limits data availability. Synthetic data generation has emerged as a promising solution, though existing methods are often limited to specific applications. In this work, we introduce BehaviorGen, a framework that uses large language models (LLMs) to generate high-quality synthetic behavior data. By simulating user behavior based on profiles and real events, BehaviorGen supports data augmentation and replacement in behavior prediction models. We evaluate its performance in scenarios such as pertaining augmentation, fine-tuning replacement, and fine-tuning augmentation, achieving significant improvements in human mobility and smartphone usage predictions, with gains of up to 18.9%. Our results demonstrate the potential of BehaviorGen to enhance user behavior modeling through flexible and privacy-preserving synthetic data generation.

Chang Liu, Bohao Zhao, Jingtao Ding et al.

Long-term forecasting of chaotic systems remains a fundamental challenge due to the intrinsic sensitivity to initial conditions and the complex geometry of strange attractors. Conventional approaches, such as reservoir computing, typically require training data that incorporates long-term continuous dynamical behavior to comprehensively capture system dynamics. While advanced deep sequence models can capture transient dynamics within the training data, they often struggle to maintain predictive stability and dynamical coherence over extended horizons. Here, we propose PhyxMamba, a framework that integrates a Mamba-based state-space model with physics-informed principles to forecast long-term behavior of chaotic systems given short-term historical observations on their state evolution. We first reconstruct the attractor manifold with time-delay embeddings to extract global dynamical features. After that, we introduce a generative training scheme that enables Mamba to replicate the physical process. It is further augmented by multi-patch prediction and attractor geometry regularization for physical constraints, enhancing predictive accuracy and preserving key statistical properties of systems. Extensive experiments on simulated and real-world chaotic systems demonstrate that PhyxMamba delivers superior forecasting accuracy and faithfully captures essential statistics from short-term historical observations.