Miha Ožbot

Miha Ožbot, Igor Škrjanc, Vitomir Štruc

In the complex landscape of multivariate time series forecasting, achieving both accuracy and interpretability remains a significant challenge. This paper introduces the Fuzzy Transformer (Fuzzformer), a novel recurrent neural network architecture combined with multi-head self-attention and fuzzy inference systems to analyze multivariate stock market data and conduct long-term time series forecasting. The method leverages LSTM networks and temporal attention to condense multivariate data into interpretable features suitable for fuzzy inference systems. The resulting architecture offers comparable forecasting performance to conventional models such as ARIMA and LSTM while providing meaningful information flow within the network. The method was examined on the real world stock market index S\&P500. Initial results show potential for interpretable forecasting and identify current performance tradeoffs, suggesting practical application in understanding and forecasting stock market behavior.

Miha Ožbot, Igor Škrjanc

In this paper, we propose a new measure for detecting overlap in multivariate Gaussian clusters. The aim of online learning from data streams is to create clustering, classification, or regression models that can adapt over time based on the conceptual drift of streaming data. In the case of clustering, this can result in a large number of clusters that may overlap and should be merged. Commonly used distribution dissimilarity measures are not adequate for determining overlapping clusters in the context of online learning from streaming data due to their inability to account for all shapes of clusters and their high computational demands. Our proposed dissimilarity measure is specifically designed to detect overlap rather than dissimilarity and can be computed faster compared to existing measures. Our method is several times faster than compared methods and is capable of detecting overlapping clusters while avoiding the merging of orthogonal clusters.

Miha Ožbot, Igor Škrjanc

In this study, we present an Evolving Fuzzy System within the context of Federated Learning, which adapts dynamically with the addition of new clusters and therefore does not require the number of clusters to be selected apriori. Unlike traditional methods, Federated Learning allows models to be trained locally on clients' devices, sharing only the model parameters with a central server instead of the data. Our method, implemented using PyTorch, was tested on clustering and classification tasks. The results show that our approach outperforms established classification methods on several well-known UCI datasets. While computationally intensive due to overlap condition calculations, the proposed method demonstrates significant advantages in decentralized data processing.