Jillian Ross

Jillian Ross, Andrew W. Lo

Large language models are increasingly deployed as advisors in high-stakes domains -- answering medical questions, interpreting legal documents, recommending financial products -- where good advice requires integrating a user's full context rather than responding to salient surface features. We investigate whether frontier LLMs actually do this, or whether they instead exhibit heuristic collapse: a systematic reduction of complex, multi-factor decisions to a small number of dominant inputs. We study the phenomenon in investment advice, where legal standards explicitly require individualized reasoning over a client's full circumstances. Applying interpretable surrogate models to LLM outputs, we find systematic heuristic collapse: investment allocation decisions are largely determined by self-reported risk tolerance, while other relevant factors contribute minimally. We further find that web search partially attenuates heuristic collapse but does not resolve it. These findings suggest that heuristic collapse is not resolved by web search augmentation or model scale alone, and that deploying LLMs as advisors requires auditing input sensitivity, not just output quality.

Ifueko Igbinedion, Jillian Ross, Etienne Ricardez et al.

Conventional wisdom suggests that reasoning models fail when problems exceed their capabilities. However, we find that frontier reasoning models sometimes possess the necessary capabilities to solve problems but fail due to premature self-doubt -- a phenomenon informally known as context anxiety. We provide the first systematic study of context anxiety, demonstrating that it arises, in part, from a model's inability to accurately estimate the tokens required to complete a task. We also show that context anxiety leads to material efficiency losses when models operate under perceived constraints. Building on this analysis, we further show that models can learn alternative strategies for solving long-horizon problems without exhibiting context anxiety, suggesting that performance improvements may be achievable not through scaling model capabilities, but by improving models' ability to accurately assess and adapt to their own limitations.