Miguel de Carvalho

Miguel de Carvalho, Gabriel Martos Venturini, Andrej Svetlošák

This paper develops a clustering method that takes advantage of the sturdiness of model-based clustering, while attempting to mitigate some of its pitfalls. First, we note that standard model-based clustering likely leads to the same number of clusters per margin, which seems a rather artificial assumption for a variety of datasets. We tackle this issue by specifying a finite mixture model per margin that allows each margin to have a different number of clusters, and then cluster the multivariate data using a strategy game-inspired algorithm to which we call Reign-and-Conquer. Second, since the proposed clustering approach only specifies a model for the margins -- but leaves the joint unspecified -- it has the advantage of being partially parallelizable; hence, the proposed approach is computationally appealing as well as more tractable for moderate to high dimensions than a `full' (joint) model-based clustering approach. A battery of numerical experiments on artificial data indicate an overall good performance of the proposed methods in a variety of scenarios, and real datasets are used to showcase their application in practice.

Ying Li, Mengyu Wang, Miguel de Carvalho et al.

Financial disclosures such as 10-K filings present challenging retrieval problems due to their length, regulatory section hierarchy, and domain-specific language, which standard retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) models underuse. We introduce FinGEAR (Financial Mapping-Guided Enhanced Answer Retrieval), a retrieval framework tailored to financial documents. FinGEAR combines a finance lexicon for Item-level guidance (FLAM), dual hierarchical indices for within-Item search (Summary Tree and Question Tree), and a two-stage cross-encoder reranker. This design aligns retrieval with disclosure structure and terminology, enabling fine-grained, query-aware context selection. Evaluated on full 10-Ks with queries aligned to the FinQA dataset, FinGEAR delivers consistent gains in precision, recall, F1, and relevancy, improving F1 by up to 56.7% over flat RAG, 12.5% over graph-based RAGs, and 217.6% over prior tree-based systems, while also increasing downstream answer accuracy with a fixed reader. By jointly modeling section hierarchy and domain lexicon signals, FinGEAR improves retrieval fidelity and provides a practical foundation for high-stakes financial analysis.

Ozan Evkaya, Miguel de Carvalho

As a result of recent advancements in generative AI, the field of Data Science is prone to various changes. This review critically examines the Data Analysis (DA) capabilities of ChatGPT assessing its performance across a wide range of tasks. While DA provides researchers and practitioners with unprecedented analytical capabilities, it is far from being perfect, and it is important to recognize and address its limitations.

Mengyu Wang, Sotirios Sabanis, Miguel de Carvalho et al.

Domain-specific quantitative reasoning remains a major challenge for large language models (LLMs), especially in fields requiring expert knowledge and complex question answering (QA). In this work, we propose Expert Question Decomposition (EQD), an approach designed to balance the use of domain knowledge with computational efficiency. EQD is built on a two-step fine-tuning framework and guided by a reward function that measures the effectiveness of generated sub-questions in improving QA outcomes. It requires only a few thousand training examples and a single A100 GPU for fine-tuning, with inference time comparable to zero-shot prompting. Beyond its efficiency, EQD outperforms state-of-the-art domain-tuned models and advanced prompting strategies. We evaluate EQD in the financial domain, characterized by specialized knowledge and complex quantitative reasoning, across four benchmark datasets. Our method consistently improves QA performance by 0.6% to 10.5% across different LLMs. Our analysis reveals an important insight: in domain-specific QA, a single supporting question often provides greater benefit than detailed guidance steps.

Juntian Zhu, Miguel de Carvalho, Zhouwang Yang et al.

An AI agent might surprisingly find she has reached an unknown state which she has never been aware of -- an unknown unknown. We mathematically ground this scenario in reinforcement learning: an agent, after taking an action calculated from value functions $Q$ and $V$ defined on the {\it {aware domain}}, reaches a state out of the domain. To enable the agent to handle this scenario, we propose an {\it episodic Markov decision {process} with growing awareness} (EMDP-GA) model, taking a new {\it noninformative value expansion} (NIVE) approach to expand value functions to newly aware areas: when an agent arrives at an unknown unknown, value functions $Q$ and $V$ whereon are initialised by noninformative beliefs -- the averaged values on the aware domain. This design is out of respect for the complete absence of knowledge in the newly discovered state. The upper confidence bound momentum Q-learning is then adapted to the growing awareness for training the EMDP-GA model. We prove that (1) the regret of our approach is asymptotically consistent with the state of the art (SOTA) without exposure to unknown unknowns in an extremely uncertain environment, and (2) our computational complexity and space complexity are comparable with the SOTA -- these collectively suggest that though an unknown unknown is surprising, it will be asymptotically properly discovered with decent speed and an affordable cost.