Xing Han

Xing Han, Ziyang Tang, Joydeep Ghosh et al.

Conformal prediction is a simple and powerful tool that can quantify uncertainty without any distributional assumptions. Many existing methods only address the average coverage guarantee, which is not ideal compared to the stronger conditional coverage guarantee. Existing methods of approximating conditional coverage require additional models or time effort, which makes them not easy to scale. In this paper, we propose a modified non-conformity score by leveraging the local approximation of the conditional distribution using kernel density estimation. The modified score inherits the spirit of split conformal methods, which is simple and efficient and can scale to high dimensional settings. We also proposed a unified framework that brings together our method and several state-of-the-art. We perform extensive empirical evaluations: results measured by both average and conditional coverage confirm the advantage of our method.

Xing Han, Tongzheng Ren, Tan Minh Nguyen et al.

Recent advances in Transformer architectures have empowered their empirical success in a variety of tasks across different domains. However, existing works mainly focus on predictive accuracy and computational cost, without considering other practical issues, such as robustness to contaminated samples. Recent work by Nguyen et al., (2022) has shown that the self-attention mechanism, which is the center of the Transformer architecture, can be viewed as a non-parametric estimator based on kernel density estimation (KDE). This motivates us to leverage a set of robust kernel density estimation methods for alleviating the issue of data contamination. Specifically, we introduce a series of self-attention mechanisms that can be incorporated into different Transformer architectures and discuss the special properties of each method. We then perform extensive empirical studies on language modeling and image classification tasks. Our methods demonstrate robust performance in multiple scenarios while maintaining competitive results on clean datasets.

Qinyao Luo, Silu He, Xing Han et al.

Accurate traffic forecasting is a fundamental problem in intelligent transportation systems and learning long-range traffic representations with key information through spatiotemporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) is a basic assumption of current traffic flow prediction models. However, due to structural limitations, existing STGNNs can only utilize short-range traffic flow data; therefore, the models cannot adequately learn the complex trends and periodic features in traffic flow. Besides, it is challenging to extract the key temporal information from the long historical traffic series and obtain a compact representation. To solve the above problems, we propose a novel LSTTN (Long-Short Term Transformer-based Network) framework comprehensively considering the long- and short-term features in historical traffic flow. First, we employ a masked subseries Transformer to infer the content of masked subseries from a small portion of unmasked subseries and their temporal context in a pretraining manner, forcing the model to efficiently learn compressed and contextual subseries temporal representations from long historical series. Then, based on the learned representations, long-term trend is extracted by using stacked 1D dilated convolution layers, and periodic features are extracted by dynamic graph convolution layers. For the difficulties in making time-step level prediction, LSTTN adopts a short-term trend extractor to learn fine-grained short-term temporal features. Finally, LSTTN fuses the long-term trend, periodic features and short-term features to obtain the prediction results. Experiments on four real-world datasets show that in 60-minute-ahead long-term forecasting, the LSTTN model achieves a minimum improvement of 5.63\% and a maximum improvement of 16.78\% over baseline models. The source code is available at https://github.com/GeoX-Lab/LSTTN.

Xing Han, Tongzheng Ren, Jing Hu et al.

We propose a novel approach to the problem of clustering hierarchically aggregated time-series data, which has remained an understudied problem though it has several commercial applications. We first group time series at each aggregated level, while simultaneously leveraging local and global information. The proposed method can cluster hierarchical time series (HTS) with different lengths and structures. For common two-level hierarchies, we employ a combined objective for local and global clustering over spaces of discrete probability measures, using Wasserstein distance coupled with Soft-DTW divergence. For multi-level hierarchies, we present a bottom-up procedure that progressively leverages lower-level information for higher-level clustering. Our final goal is to improve both the accuracy and speed of forecasts for a larger number of HTS needed for a real-world application. To attain this goal, each time series is first assigned the forecast for its cluster representative, which can be considered as a "shrinkage prior" for the set of time series it represents. Then this base forecast can be quickly fine-tuned to adjust to the specifics of that time series. We empirically show that our method substantially improves performance in terms of both speed and accuracy for large-scale forecasting tasks involving much HTS.

Fei Liu, Zejun Kang, Xing Han

With the growing demand for offline PDF chatbots in automotive industrial production environments, optimizing the deployment of large language models (LLMs) in local, low-performance settings has become increasingly important. This study focuses on enhancing Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) techniques for processing complex automotive industry documents using locally deployed Ollama models. Based on the Langchain framework, we propose a multi-dimensional optimization approach for Ollama's local RAG implementation. Our method addresses key challenges in automotive document processing, including multi-column layouts and technical specifications. We introduce improvements in PDF processing, retrieval mechanisms, and context compression, tailored to the unique characteristics of automotive industry documents. Additionally, we design custom classes supporting embedding pipelines and an agent supporting self-RAG based on LangGraph best practices. To evaluate our approach, we constructed a proprietary dataset comprising typical automotive industry documents, including technical reports and corporate regulations. We compared our optimized RAG model and self-RAG agent against a naive RAG baseline across three datasets: our automotive industry dataset, QReCC, and CoQA. Results demonstrate significant improvements in context precision, context recall, answer relevancy, and faithfulness, with particularly notable performance on the automotive industry dataset. Our optimization scheme provides an effective solution for deploying local RAG systems in the automotive sector, addressing the specific needs of PDF chatbots in industrial production environments. This research has important implications for advancing information processing and intelligent production in the automotive industry.

Hsing-Huan Chung, Shravan Chaudhari, Yoav Wald et al.

In real-world graph data, distribution shifts can manifest in various ways, such as the emergence of new categories and changes in the relative proportions of existing categories. It is often important to detect nodes of novel categories under such distribution shifts for safety or insight discovery purposes. We introduce a new approach, Recall-Constrained Optimization with Selective Link Prediction (RECO-SLIP), to detect nodes belonging to novel categories in attributed graphs under subpopulation shifts. By integrating a recall-constrained learning framework with a sample-efficient link prediction mechanism, RECO-SLIP addresses the dual challenges of resilience against subpopulation shifts and the effective exploitation of graph structure. Our extensive empirical evaluation across multiple graph datasets demonstrates the superior performance of RECO-SLIP over existing methods. The experimental code is available at https://github.com/hsinghuan/novel-node-category-detection.

Hsing-Huan Chung, Shijun Li, Yoav Wald et al.

Multimodal irregular time series (MITS) consist of asynchronous and irregularly sampled observations from heterogeneous numerical and textual channels. In healthcare, for example, patients' electronic health records (EHR) include irregular lab measurements and clinical notes. The irregular timing and channel patterns of observations carry predictive signal alongside the numerical values and textual content. LLMs are natural candidates for processing such heterogeneous data, given their extensive pretrained knowledge spanning textual and numerical domains. We introduce MILM (Multimodal Irregular time series Language Model), which represents MITS as time-ordered triplets in Extensible Markup Language (XML) format and fine-tunes an LLM through a two-stage strategy for MITS classification. The first stage trains on value-redacted MITS to predict from sampling patterns alone, and the second stage trains on full MITS to jointly model sampling patterns and observed values. Our two-stage model (MILM-2S) and its single-stage counterpart (MILM-Direct) achieve the best and second-best average performance on multiple EHR datasets. Further value redaction evaluations confirm that sampling patterns carry predictive signal and that MILM-2S learns to exploit them. In the value pending evaluation we introduce, where some values are unavailable at prediction time, MILM-2S outperforms MILM-Direct by a larger margin compared to standard evaluation. For MILM-2S, preserving the time and channel of value-pending observations as additional sampling information further improves in-hospital mortality prediction.

Xing Han, Shravan Chaudhari, Tanvi Ranade et al.

Real-world model deployment across multiple domains requires multimodal models to operate under two complementary regimes: (1) multi-task pretraining, tasks are co-available at design time where related tasks could borrow representational strength from one another, (2) continual adaptation, in which new tasks emerge after deployment with previously unseen modality combinations. However, neither regime alone suffices: the pretraining task set is never exhaustive, while bypassing joint training forfeits the transfer gains and efficiency among co-trainable tasks. Sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) is a natural fit for this dual requirement: sparse activation enables modular capacity expansion as new tasks arrive, while routing decouples modality-level computation from task-level composition. In this work, we propose a scalable MoE framework for multitask pretraining and continual learning across flexible modality combinations. The framework is designed to support training on multimodal tasks with diverse modality configurations by leveraging modality-specific routers that process tokens from each modality across tasks. Furthermore, it enables continual learning over sequential multimodal tasks within a fixed-capacity MoE by compressing accumulated expert knowledge into low-rank memory subspaces, while expanding only the lightweight routers. We validate the effectiveness of our method on multiple healthcare multimodal benchmarks. It demonstrates competitive multitask pretraining performance while alleviating catastrophic forgetting and improving parameter efficiency.

Xing Han, Ziyin Liu, Suchi Saria et al.

Neural scaling laws establish a predictable relationship between model performance and data or compute, offering crucial guidance for resource allocation in new domains and tasks. Yet such laws are most needed precisely where they are hardest to obtain: fitting one for a new model task pair demands expensive sweeps that typically exhaust the very compute budget the law is meant to economize. This paper poses the research question of how to develop generalizable scaling laws: laws fit once on a well-resourced source domain and reliably transported to new domains where running a full sweep is infeasible, which requires a fundamental understanding of when and why scaling properties change. We address this by identifying the right invariants: scaling laws are preserved under bijective (information-preserving) transformations of the data and modified in predictable, information-theoretically grounded ways under non-bijective transformations that lower its information resolution $ρ$: a single axis along which a law fit in one domain can be transported to another. We validate this across language, vision, and speech, and demonstrate two cross-domain applications: predicting scaling for language models trained on electronic health records from laws fit on general text, and predicting time-series classification scaling under varying levels of noise injection, recovering the data-scaling exponents to within $3\%$ error.

Xing Han, Huy Nguyen, Carl Harris et al.

As machine learning models in critical fields increasingly grapple with multimodal data, they face the dual challenges of handling a wide array of modalities, often incomplete due to missing elements, and the temporal irregularity and sparsity of collected samples. Successfully leveraging this complex data, while overcoming the scarcity of high-quality training samples, is key to improving these models' predictive performance. We introduce ``FuseMoE'', a mixture-of-experts framework incorporated with an innovative gating function. Designed to integrate a diverse number of modalities, FuseMoE is effective in managing scenarios with missing modalities and irregularly sampled data trajectories. Theoretically, our unique gating function contributes to enhanced convergence rates, leading to better performance in multiple downstream tasks. The practical utility of FuseMoE in the real world is validated by a diverse set of challenging prediction tasks.

Pedram Akbarian, Huy Nguyen, Xing Han et al.

Mixture of Experts (MoE) models are well known for effectively scaling model capacity while preserving computational overheads. In this paper, we establish a rigorous relation between MoE and the self-attention mechanism, showing that each row of a self-attention matrix can be written as a quadratic gating mixture of linear experts. Motivated by this connection, we conduct a comprehensive convergence analysis of MoE models with two different quadratic gating functions, namely the quadratic polynomial gate and the quadratic monomial gate, offering useful insights into the design of gating and experts for the MoE framework. First, our analysis indicates that the use of the quadratic monomial gate yields an improved sample efficiency for estimating parameters and experts compared to the quadratic polynomial gate. Second, parameter and expert estimation rates become significantly faster when employing non-linear experts in place of linear experts. Combining these theoretical insights with the above link between MoE and self-attention, we propose a novel \emph{active-attention} mechanism where we apply a non-linear activation function to the value matrix in the formula of self-attention. Finally, we demonstrate that the proposed active-attention outperforms the standard self-attention through several extensive experiments in various tasks, including image classification, language modeling, and multivariate time series forecasting.

Xiaojun Shan, Qi Cao, Xing Han et al.

Recent advances in multimodal foundation models have achieved state-of-the-art performance across a range of tasks. These breakthroughs are largely driven by new pre-training paradigms that leverage large-scale, unlabeled multimodal data, followed by instruction fine-tuning on curated labeled datasets and high-quality prompts. While there is growing interest in scaling instruction fine-tuning to ever-larger datasets in both quantity and scale, our findings reveal that simply increasing the number of instruction-tuning tasks does not consistently yield better performance. Instead, we observe that grouping tasks by the common interactions across modalities, such as discovering redundant shared information, prioritizing modality selection with unique information, or requiring synergistic fusion to discover new information from both modalities, encourages the models to learn transferrable skills within a group while suppressing interference from mismatched tasks. To this end, we introduce MINT, a simple yet surprisingly effective task-grouping strategy based on the type of multimodal interaction. We demonstrate that the proposed method greatly outperforms existing task grouping baselines for multimodal instruction tuning, striking an effective balance between generalization and specialization.

Drew Prinster, Xing Han, Anqi Liu et al.

Responsibly deploying artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning (ML) systems in high-stakes settings arguably requires not only proof of system reliability, but also continual, post-deployment monitoring to quickly detect and address any unsafe behavior. Methods for nonparametric sequential testing -- especially conformal test martingales (CTMs) and anytime-valid inference -- offer promising tools for this monitoring task. However, existing approaches are restricted to monitoring limited hypothesis classes or ``alarm criteria'' (e.g., detecting data shifts that violate certain exchangeability or IID assumptions), do not allow for online adaptation in response to shifts, and/or cannot diagnose the cause of degradation or alarm. In this paper, we address these limitations by proposing a weighted generalization of conformal test martingales (WCTMs), which lay a theoretical foundation for online monitoring for any unexpected changepoints in the data distribution while controlling false-alarms. For practical applications, we propose specific WCTM algorithms that adapt online to mild covariate shifts (in the marginal input distribution), quickly detect harmful shifts, and diagnose those harmful shifts as concept shifts (in the conditional label distribution) or extreme (out-of-support) covariate shifts that cannot be easily adapted to. On real-world datasets, we demonstrate improved performance relative to state-of-the-art baselines.

Hsing-Huan Chung, Shravan Chaudhari, Xing Han et al.

Dynamic graph learning is essential for applications involving temporal networks and requires effective modeling of temporal relationships. Seminal attention-based models like TGAT and DyGFormer rely on sinusoidal time encoders to capture temporal dependencies between edge events. Prior work justified sinusoidal encodings because their inner products depend on the time spans between events, which are crucial features for modeling inter-event relations. However, sinusoidal encodings inherently lose temporal information due to their many-to-one nature and therefore require high dimensions. In this paper, we rigorously study a simpler alternative: the linear time encoder, which avoids temporal information loss caused by sinusoidal functions and reduces the need for high-dimensional time encoders. We show that the self-attention mechanism can effectively learn to compute time spans between events from linear time encodings and extract relevant temporal patterns. Through extensive experiments on six dynamic graph datasets, we demonstrate that the linear time encoder improves the performance of TGAT and DyGFormer in most cases. Moreover, the linear time encoder can lead to significant savings in model parameters with minimal performance loss. For example, compared to a 100-dimensional sinusoidal time encoder, TGAT with a 2-dimensional linear time encoder saves 43% of parameters and achieves higher average precision on five datasets. While both encoders can be used simultaneously, our study highlights the often-overlooked advantages of linear time features in modern dynamic graph models. These findings can positively impact the design choices of various dynamic graph learning architectures and eventually benefit temporal network applications such as recommender systems, communication networks, and traffic forecasting.

Xing Han, Hsing-Huan Chung, Joydeep Ghosh et al.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures have become pivotal for large-scale multimodal models. However, their routing mechanisms typically overlook the informative, time-varying interaction dynamics between modalities. This limitation hinders expert specialization, as the model cannot explicitly leverage intrinsic modality relationships for effective reasoning. To address this, we propose a novel framework that guides MoE routing using quantified temporal interaction. A multimodal interaction-aware router learns to dispatch tokens to experts based on the nature of their interactions. This dynamic routing encourages experts to acquire generalizable interaction-processing skills rather than merely learning task-specific features. Our framework builds on a new formulation of temporal multimodal interaction dynamics, which are used to guide expert routing. We first demonstrate that these temporal multimodal interactions reveal meaningful patterns across applications, and then show how they can be leveraged to improve both the design and performance of MoE-based models. Comprehensive experiments on challenging multimodal benchmarks validate our approach, demonstrating both enhanced performance and improved interpretability.

Disha Makhija, Xing Han, Joydeep Ghosh et al.

Achieving fairness across diverse clients in Federated Learning (FL) remains a significant challenge due to the heterogeneity of the data and the inaccessibility of sensitive attributes from clients' private datasets. This study addresses this issue by introducing \texttt{EquiFL}, a novel approach designed to enhance both local and global fairness in federated learning environments. \texttt{EquiFL} incorporates a fairness term into the local optimization objective, effectively balancing local performance and fairness. The proposed coordination mechanism also prevents bias from propagating across clients during the collaboration phase. Through extensive experiments across multiple benchmarks, we demonstrate that \texttt{EquiFL} not only strikes a better balance between accuracy and fairness locally at each client but also achieves global fairness. The results also indicate that \texttt{EquiFL} ensures uniform performance distribution among clients, thus contributing to performance fairness. Furthermore, we showcase the benefits of \texttt{EquiFL} in a real-world distributed dataset from a healthcare application, specifically in predicting the effects of treatments on patients across various hospital locations.

Disha Makhija, Xing Han, Nhat Ho et al.

With growing concerns regarding data privacy and rapid increase in data volume, Federated Learning(FL) has become an important learning paradigm. However, jointly learning a deep neural network model in a FL setting proves to be a non-trivial task because of the complexities associated with the neural networks, such as varied architectures across clients, permutation invariance of the neurons, and presence of non-linear transformations in each layer. This work introduces a novel Federated Heterogeneous Neural Networks (FedHeNN) framework that allows each client to build a personalised model without enforcing a common architecture across clients. This allows each client to optimize with respect to local data and compute constraints, while still benefiting from the learnings of other (potentially more powerful) clients. The key idea of FedHeNN is to use the instance-level representations obtained from peer clients to guide the simultaneous training on each client. The extensive experimental results demonstrate that the FedHeNN framework is capable of learning better performing models on clients in both the settings of homogeneous and heterogeneous architectures across clients.

Xing Han, Jing Hu, Joydeep Ghosh

We introduce a framework to dynamically combine heterogeneous models called \texttt{DYCHEM}, which forecasts a set of time series that are related through an aggregation hierarchy. Different types of forecasting models can be employed as individual ``experts'' so that each model is tailored to the nature of the corresponding time series. \texttt{DYCHEM} learns hierarchical structures during the training stage to help generalize better across all the time series being modeled and also mitigates coherency issues that arise due to constraints imposed by the hierarchy. To improve the reliability of forecasts, we construct quantile estimations based on the point forecasts obtained from combined heterogeneous models. The resulting quantile forecasts are coherent and independent of the choice of forecasting models. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of both point and quantile forecasts for hierarchical time series (HTS), including public data and user records from a large financial software company. In general, our method is robust, adaptive to datasets with different properties, and highly configurable and efficient for large-scale forecasting pipelines.

Xing Han, Jessica Lundin

Text-style transfer aims to convert text given in one domain into another by paraphrasing the sentence or substituting the keywords without altering the content. By necessity, state-of-the-art methods have evolved to accommodate nonparallel training data, as it is frequently the case there are multiple data sources of unequal size, with a mixture of labeled and unlabeled sentences. Moreover, the inherent style defined within each source might be distinct. A generic bidirectional (e.g., formal $\Leftrightarrow$ informal) style transfer regardless of different groups may not generalize well to different applications. In this work, we developed a task adaptive meta-learning framework that can simultaneously perform a multi-pair text-style transfer using a single model. The proposed method can adaptively balance the difference of meta-knowledge across multiple tasks. Results show that our method leads to better quantitative performance as well as coherent style variations. Common challenges of unbalanced data and mismatched domains are handled well by this method.

Xing Han, Sambarta Dasgupta, Joydeep Ghosh

Many real-life applications involve simultaneously forecasting multiple time series that are hierarchically related via aggregation or disaggregation operations. For instance, commercial organizations often want to forecast inventories simultaneously at store, city, and state levels for resource planning purposes. In such applications, it is important that the forecasts, in addition to being reasonably accurate, are also consistent w.r.t one another. Although forecasting such hierarchical time series has been pursued by economists and data scientists, the current state-of-the-art models use strong assumptions, e.g., all forecasts being unbiased estimates, noise distribution being Gaussian. Besides, state-of-the-art models have not harnessed the power of modern nonlinear models, especially ones based on deep learning. In this paper, we propose using a flexible nonlinear model that optimizes quantile regression loss coupled with suitable regularization terms to maintain the consistency of forecasts across hierarchies. The theoretical framework introduced herein can be applied to any forecasting model with an underlying differentiable loss function. A proof of optimality of our proposed method is also provided. Simulation studies over a range of datasets highlight the efficacy of our approach.

Xingchao Liu, Xing Han, Na Zhang et al.

Learning monotonic models with respect to a subset of the inputs is a desirable feature to effectively address the fairness, interpretability, and generalization issues in practice. Existing methods for learning monotonic neural networks either require specifically designed model structures to ensure monotonicity, which can be too restrictive/complicated, or enforce monotonicity by adjusting the learning process, which cannot provably guarantee the learned model is monotonic on selected features. In this work, we propose to certify the monotonicity of the general piece-wise linear neural networks by solving a mixed integer linear programming problem.This provides a new general approach for learning monotonic neural networks with arbitrary model structures. Our method allows us to train neural networks with heuristic monotonicity regularizations, and we can gradually increase the regularization magnitude until the learned network is certified monotonic. Compared to prior works, our approach does not require human-designed constraints on the weight space and also yields more accurate approximation. Empirical studies on various datasets demonstrate the efficiency of our approach over the state-of-the-art methods, such as Deep Lattice Networks.

Xing Han, Joydeep Ghosh

How can we find a subset of training samples that are most responsible for a specific prediction made by a complex black-box machine learning model? More generally, how can we explain the model's decisions to end-users in a transparent way? We propose a new model-agnostic algorithm to identify a minimal set of training samples that are indispensable for a given model's decision at a particular test point, i.e., the model's decision would have changed upon the removal of this subset from the training dataset. Our algorithm identifies such a set of "indispensable" samples iteratively by solving a constrained optimization problem. Further, we speed up the algorithm through efficient approximations and provide theoretical justification for its performance. To demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of our approach, we apply it to a variety of tasks including data poisoning detection, training set debugging and understanding loan decisions. The results show that our algorithm is an effective and easy-to-comprehend tool that helps to better understand local model behavior, and therefore facilitates the adoption of machine learning in domains where such understanding is a requisite.