Gabriel Kronberger

Gabriel Kronberger, Fabricio Olivetti de Franca, Deaglan J. Bartlett et al.

Symbolic regression with genetic programming (GPSR) may suffer from overfitting and structural bloat, especially when noise is present. In this paper we evaluate description length (DL) and fractional Bayes factor (FBF) criteria as principled, data-efficient alternatives to heuristics for selecting compact expressions that generalise well. We implement DL using a Fisher-information-based parameter encoding and compare it to AIC and BIC across multiple datasets, including noisy synthetic benchmarks and real-world regression problems. We study three search/selection strategies: (i) multi-objective search for accuracy and program length followed by DL/FBF selection; (ii) multi-objective search using DL directly as an objective; and (iii) single-objective optimisation with DL/FBF as the fitness. Across datasets we find that DL/FBF post-selection improves test performance compared to AIC/BIC baseline and that BIC in combination with the same function complexity penalty from DL/FBF produces similar results. In contrast, using DL/FBF directly as a fitness function in single-objective GPSR frequently induces premature convergence to overly simple models. We conclude with practical guidance for using DL/FBF as robust model-selection tools in genetic programming workflows.

Ali Soltani, Gabriel Kronberger, Fabricio Olivetti de Franca et al.

Effective model selection is critical in symbolic regression (SR) to identify mathematical expressions that balance accuracy and complexity, and have low expected error on unseen data. Many modern implementations of genetic programming (GP) for SR generate a set of Pareto optimal candidate solutions, but reliable automatic selection of solutions that generalize well remains an open issue. Current literature offers various information-theoretic and Bayesian approaches, yet comprehensive comparisons of their performance across different data regimes are limited. This study presents a systematic empirical comparison of widely used selection criteria: the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the corrected AIC (AICc), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), minimum description length (MDL), as well as Efron's bootstrap estimate for the in-sample prediction error on seven synthetic datasets with Gaussian noise. We rank candidate expressions generated by perturbing ground-truth functions to assess generalization error and selection probability of the ground-truth expression. Our findings reveal that MDL consistently identifies models with the lowest test error and the shortest length across most datasets. While no single criterion dominates all results, MDL and BIC produced the highest probability of selecting the ground-truth expressions.

Lukas Kammerer, Gabriel Kronberger, Deaglan J. Bartlett et al.

We analyze the effect of optimizing the initial population of genetic programming (GP) for symbolic regression (SR) on the accuracy and complexity of solutions. We compare three well-established random initialization methods as well as initialization with small optimized solutions from exhaustive symbolic regression (ESR) using a GP/SR implementation which is based on the multi-objective evolutionary algorithm NSGA-II. We compare the final Pareto fronts found with each initialization method on twelve synthetic problems of varying complexity and one real-world dataset. We find no significant differences in accuracy or model complexity among the initialization methods. The initial advantage of initialization with ESR disappears after only a few generations. Our results show that, given similar diversity in the initial population, the effect of the initialization method in GP-based symbolic regression on the final Pareto front is negligible.