Jackson Fogelquist

Hao Tu, Jackson Fogelquist, Iman Askari et al.

This paper studies system identification for nonlinear state-space models, a problem that arises across many fields yet remains challenging in practice. Focusing on maximum likelihood estimation, we employ Bayesian optimization (BayesOpt) to address this problem by leveraging its derivative-free global search capability enabled by surrogate modeling of the likelihood function. Despite these advantages, standard BayesOpt often suffers from slow convergence, high computational cost, and practical difficulty in attaining global optima under limited computational budgets, especially for high-dimensional nonlinear models with many unknown parameters. To overcome these limitations, we propose an accelerated BayesOpt framework that integrates BayesOpt with the Nelder--Mead method. Heuristics-based, the Nelder--Mead method provides fast local search, thereby assisting BayesOpt when the surrogate model lacks fidelity or when over-exploration occurs in broad parameter spaces. The proposed framework incorporates a principled strategy to coordinate the two methods, effectively combining their complementary strengths. The resulting hybrid approach significantly improves both convergence speed and computational efficiency while maintaining strong global search performance. In addition, we leverage an implicit particle filtering method to enable accurate and efficient likelihood evaluation. We validate the proposed framework on the identification of the BattX model for lithium-ion batteries, which features ten state dimensions, 18 unknown parameters, and strong nonlinearity. Both simulation and experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach as well as its advantages over alternative methods.

Ayush Patnaik, Jackson Fogelquist, Adam B Zufall et al.

Lithium plating during fast charging is a critical degradation mechanism that accelerates capacity fade and can trigger catastrophic safety failures. Recent work has identified a distinctive dQ/dV peak above 4.0 V as a reliable signature of plating onset; however, conventional methods for computing dQ/dV rely on finite differencing with filtering, which amplifies sensor noise and introduces bias in peak location. In this paper, we propose a Gaussian Process (GP) framework for lithium plating detection by directly modeling the charge-voltage relationship Q(V) as a stochastic process with calibrated uncertainty. Leveraging the property that derivatives of GPs remain GPs, we infer dQ/dV analytically and probabilistically from the posterior, enabling robust detection without ad hoc smoothing. The framework provides three key benefits: (i) noise-aware inference with hyperparameters learned from data, (ii) closed-form derivatives with credible intervals for uncertainty quantification, and (iii) scalability to online variants suitable for embedded BMS. Experimental validation on Li-ion coin cells across a range of C-rates (0.2C-1C) and temperatures (0-40°C) demonstrates that the GP-based method reliably detects plating peaks under low-temperature, high-rate charging, while correctly reporting no peaks in baseline cases. The concurrence of GP-identified differential peaks, reduced charge throughput, and capacity fade measured via reference performance tests confirms the method's accuracy and robustness, establishing a practical pathway for real-time lithium plating detection.