Andrew M. McDonald

Andrew McDonald, Pang-Ning Tan, Lifeng Luo

Normalizing flows, a popular class of deep generative models, often fail to represent extreme phenomena observed in real-world processes. In particular, existing normalizing flow architectures struggle to model multivariate extremes, characterized by heavy-tailed marginal distributions and asymmetric tail dependence among variables. In light of this shortcoming, we propose COMET (COpula Multivariate ExTreme) Flows, which decompose the process of modeling a joint distribution into two parts: (i) modeling its marginal distributions, and (ii) modeling its copula distribution. COMET Flows capture heavy-tailed marginal distributions by combining a parametric tail belief at extreme quantiles of the marginals with an empirical kernel density function at mid-quantiles. In addition, COMET Flows capture asymmetric tail dependence among multivariate extremes by viewing such dependence as inducing a low-dimensional manifold structure in feature space. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of COMET Flows in capturing both heavy-tailed marginals and asymmetric tail dependence compared to other state-of-the-art baseline architectures. All code is available on GitHub at https://github.com/andrewmcdonald27/COMETFlows.

Asadullah Hill Galib, Andrew McDonald, Tyler Wilson et al.

Accurate forecasting of extreme values in time series is critical due to the significant impact of extreme events on human and natural systems. This paper presents DeepExtrema, a novel framework that combines a deep neural network (DNN) with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to forecast the block maximum value of a time series. Implementing such a network is a challenge as the framework must preserve the inter-dependent constraints among the GEV model parameters even when the DNN is initialized. We describe our approach to address this challenge and present an architecture that enables both conditional mean and quantile prediction of the block maxima. The extensive experiments performed on both real-world and synthetic data demonstrated the superiority of DeepExtrema compared to other baseline methods.

Andrew M. McDonald, Massimiliano Pontil, Dimitris Stamos

The spectral $k$-support norm enjoys good estimation properties in low rank matrix learning problems, empirically outperforming the trace norm. Its unit ball is the convex hull of rank $k$ matrices with unit Frobenius norm. In this paper we generalize the norm to the spectral $(k,p)$-support norm, whose additional parameter $p$ can be used to tailor the norm to the decay of the spectrum of the underlying model. We characterize the unit ball and we explicitly compute the norm. We further provide a conditional gradient method to solve regularization problems with the norm, and we derive an efficient algorithm to compute the Euclidean projection on the unit ball in the case $p=\infty$. In numerical experiments, we show that allowing $p$ to vary significantly improves performance over the spectral $k$-support norm on various matrix completion benchmarks, and better captures the spectral decay of the underlying model.

Andrew M. McDonald, Massimiliano Pontil, Dimitris Stamos

We study a regularizer which is defined as a parameterized infimum of quadratics, and which we call the box-norm. We show that the k-support norm, a regularizer proposed by [Argyriou et al, 2012] for sparse vector prediction problems, belongs to this family, and the box-norm can be generated as a perturbation of the former. We derive an improved algorithm to compute the proximity operator of the squared box-norm, and we provide a method to compute the norm. We extend the norms to matrices, introducing the spectral k-support norm and spectral box-norm. We note that the spectral box-norm is essentially equivalent to the cluster norm, a multitask learning regularizer introduced by [Jacob et al. 2009a], and which in turn can be interpreted as a perturbation of the spectral k-support norm. Centering the norm is important for multitask learning and we also provide a method to use centered versions of the norms as regularizers. Numerical experiments indicate that the spectral k-support and box-norms and their centered variants provide state of the art performance in matrix completion and multitask learning problems respectively.

Andrew M. McDonald, Massimiliano Pontil, Dimitris Stamos

The $k$-support norm is a regularizer which has been successfully applied to sparse vector prediction problems. We show that it belongs to a general class of norms which can be formulated as a parameterized infimum over quadratics. We further extend the $k$-support norm to matrices, and we observe that it is a special case of the matrix cluster norm. Using this formulation we derive an efficient algorithm to compute the proximity operator of both norms. This improves upon the standard algorithm for the $k$-support norm and allows us to apply proximal gradient methods to the cluster norm. We also describe how to solve regularization problems which employ centered versions of these norms. Finally, we apply the matrix regularizers to different matrix completion and multitask learning datasets. Our results indicate that the spectral $k$-support norm and the cluster norm give state of the art performance on these problems, significantly outperforming trace norm and elastic net penalties.