Yaochen Zhu

Song Wang, Yaochen Zhu, Haochen Liu et al.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently transformed both the academic and industrial landscapes due to their remarkable capacity to understand, analyze, and generate texts based on their vast knowledge and reasoning ability. Nevertheless, one major drawback of LLMs is their substantial computational cost for pre-training due to their unprecedented amounts of parameters. The disadvantage is exacerbated when new knowledge frequently needs to be introduced into the pre-trained model. Therefore, it is imperative to develop effective and efficient techniques to update pre-trained LLMs. Traditional methods encode new knowledge in pre-trained LLMs through direct fine-tuning. However, naively re-training LLMs can be computationally intensive and risks degenerating valuable pre-trained knowledge irrelevant to the update in the model. Recently, Knowledge-based Model Editing (KME) has attracted increasing attention, which aims to precisely modify the LLMs to incorporate specific knowledge, without negatively influencing other irrelevant knowledge. In this survey, we aim to provide a comprehensive and in-depth overview of recent advances in the field of KME. We first introduce a general formulation of KME to encompass different KME strategies. Afterward, we provide an innovative taxonomy of KME techniques based on how the new knowledge is introduced into pre-trained LLMs, and investigate existing KME strategies while analyzing key insights, advantages, and limitations of methods from each category. Moreover, representative metrics, datasets, and applications of KME are introduced accordingly. Finally, we provide an in-depth analysis regarding the practicality and remaining challenges of KME and suggest promising research directions for further advancement in this field.

Yaochen Zhu, Xiangqing Shen, Rui Xia

Personality traits, emotions, and beliefs shape individuals' behavioral choices and decision-making processes. However, for one thing, the affective computing community normally focused on predicting personality traits but overlooks their application in behavior prediction. For another, the multimodal reasoning task emphasized the prediction of future states and behaviors but often neglected the incorporation of individual personality traits. In this work, we introduce a new task called Personality-aware Human-centric Multimodal Reasoning (PHMR) (T1), with the goal of forecasting the future behavior of a particular individual using multimodal information from past instances, while integrating personality factors. We accordingly construct a new dataset based on six television shows, encompassing 225 characters and 12k samples. To establish a benchmark for the task, we propose seven baseline methods: three adapted from related tasks, two pre-trained model, and two multimodal large language models. The experimental results demonstrate that incorporating personality traits enhances human-centric multimodal reasoning performance. To further solve the lack of personality annotation in real-life scenes, we introduce an extension task called Personality-predicted Human-centric Multimodal Reasoning task (T2) along with the corresponding dataset and method. We will make our dataset and code available on GitHub.

Jinliang Lu, Ziliang Pang, Min Xiao et al.

The remarkable success of Large Language Models (LLMs) has ushered natural language processing (NLP) research into a new era. Despite their diverse capabilities, LLMs trained on different corpora exhibit varying strengths and weaknesses, leading to challenges in maximizing their overall efficiency and versatility. To address these challenges, recent studies have explored collaborative strategies for LLMs. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of this emerging research area, highlighting the motivation behind such collaborations. Specifically, we categorize collaborative strategies into three primary approaches: Merging, Ensemble, and Cooperation. Merging involves integrating multiple LLMs in the parameter space. Ensemble combines the outputs of various LLMs. Cooperation} leverages different LLMs to allow full play to their diverse capabilities for specific tasks. We provide in-depth introductions to these methods from different perspectives and discuss their potential applications. Additionally, we outline future research directions, hoping this work will catalyze further studies on LLM collaborations and paving the way for advanced NLP applications.

Yinhan He, Yaochen Zhu, Mingjia Shi et al.

Large language models increasingly rely on long chains of thought to improve accuracy, yet such gains come with substantial inference-time costs. We revisit token-efficient post-training and argue that existing sequence-level reward-shaping methods offer limited control over how reasoning effort is allocated across tokens. To bridge the gap, we propose IAPO, an information-theoretic post-training framework that assigns token-wise advantages based on each token's conditional mutual information (MI) with the final answer. This yields an explicit, principled mechanism for identifying informative reasoning steps and suppressing low-utility exploration. We provide a theoretical analysis showing that our IAPO can induce monotonic reductions in reasoning verbosity without harming correctness. Empirically, IAPO consistently improves reasoning accuracy while reducing reasoning length by up to 36%, outperforming existing token-efficient RL methods across various reasoning datasets. Extensive empirical evaluations demonstrate that information-aware advantage shaping is a powerful and general direction for token-efficient post-training. The code is available at https://github.com/YinhanHe123/IAPO.

Xuansheng Wu, Haiyan Zhao, Yaochen Zhu et al.

Explainable AI (XAI) refers to techniques that provide human-understandable insights into the workings of AI models. Recently, the focus of XAI is being extended toward explaining Large Language Models (LLMs). This extension calls for a significant transformation in the XAI methodologies for two reasons. First, many existing XAI methods cannot be directly applied to LLMs due to their complexity and advanced capabilities. Second, as LLMs are increasingly deployed in diverse applications, the role of XAI shifts from merely opening the ``black box'' to actively enhancing the productivity and applicability of LLMs in real-world settings. Meanwhile, the conversation and generation abilities of LLMs can reciprocally enhance XAI. Therefore, in this paper, we introduce Usable XAI in the context of LLMs by analyzing (1) how XAI can explain and improve LLM-based AI systems and (2) how XAI techniques can be improved by using LLMs. We introduce 10 strategies, introducing the key techniques for each and discussing their associated challenges. We also provide case studies to demonstrate how to obtain and leverage explanations. The code used in this paper can be found at: https://github.com/JacksonWuxs/UsableXAI_LLM.

Zhenyu Lei, Zhen Tan, Song Wang et al.

Advances in large language models (LLMs) significantly enhance reasoning capabilities but their deployment is restricted in resource-constrained scenarios. Knowledge distillation addresses this by transferring knowledge from powerful teacher models to compact and transparent students. However, effectively capturing the teacher's comprehensive reasoning is challenging due to conventional token-level supervision's limited scope. Using multiple reasoning paths per query alleviates this problem, but treating each path identically is suboptimal as paths vary widely in quality and suitability across tasks and models. We propose Quality-filtered Routing with Cooperative Distillation (QR-Distill), combining path quality filtering, conditional routing, and cooperative peer teaching. First, quality filtering retains only correct reasoning paths scored by an LLM-based evaluation. Second, conditional routing dynamically assigns paths tailored to each student's current learning state. Finally, cooperative peer teaching enables students to mutually distill diverse insights, addressing knowledge gaps and biases toward specific reasoning styles. Experiments demonstrate QR-Distill's superiority over traditional single- and multi-path distillation methods. Ablation studies further highlight the importance of each component including quality filtering, conditional routing, and peer teaching in effective knowledge transfer. Our code is available at https://github.com/LzyFischer/Distill.

Zaiyi Zheng, Guanghui Min, Yaochen Zhu et al.

Generative recommendation treats next-item prediction as autoregressive item-identifier generation. Specifically, items are encoded as semantic identifiers (SIDs), which are short coarse-to-fine token sequences whose early tokens capture broad semantics and later tokens refine them. Recent work augments this paradigm with reasoning traces and optimizes them via reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards, typically outcome-reward algorithm with exact-match feedback on the generated SID. However, in large-catalog recommendation, exact-match feedback on the generated SID only reports whether the final item is correct; when a generated SID mismatches, outcome-reward cannot identify which SID-token prediction caused the mismatch and may penalize matched SID-token positions together with the mismatched position. We identify that the natural unit of credit assignment in this setting is a single reasoning step (one thinking block paired with one SID token). We instantiate this idea in SAPO (Step-Aligned Policy Optimization): rather than broadcasting one advantage to the whole response, SAPO computes a separate group-relative advantage for each reasoning step and applies it only to the corresponding thinking block and SID token. Across three real-world recommendation datasets, SAPO stabilizes reinforcement-learning training and consistently improves over existing generative recommendation baselines, with the largest gains where sparse exact-match feedback makes reasoning-step credit assignment important. Our results suggest that reinforcement-learning objectives for structured generation should mirror the decoder's own decomposition of the output.

Yaochen Zhu, Rui Xia, Jiajun Zhang

Model merging is to combine fine-tuned models derived from multiple domains, with the intent of enhancing the model's proficiency across various domains. The principal concern is the resolution of parameter conflicts. A substantial amount of existing research remedy this issue during the merging stage, with the latest study focusing on resolving this issue throughout the pruning stage. The DARE approach has exhibited promising outcomes when applied to a simplistic fine-tuned model. However, the efficacy of this method tends to wane when employed on complex fine-tuned models that show a significant parameter bias relative to the baseline model. In this paper, we introduce a dual-stage method termed Dynamic Pruning Partition Amplification (DPPA), devised to tackle the challenge of merging complex fine-tuned models. Initially, we introduce Dynamically Pruning (DP), an improved approach based on magnitude pruning, which aim is to enhance performance at higher pruning rates. Subsequently, we propose Dynamically Partition Amplification (DPA), a rescaling strategy, is designed to dynamically amplify parameter partitions in relation to their significance levels. The experimental results show that our method maintains a mere 20% of domain-specific parameters and yet delivers a performance comparable to other methodologies that preserve up to 90% of parameters. Furthermore, our method displays outstanding performance post-pruning, leading to a significant improvement of nearly 20% performance in model merging. We make our code on Github.

Yinhan He, Wendy Zheng, Yaochen Zhu et al.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been widely deployed in various real-world applications. However, most GNNs are black-box models that lack explanations. One strategy to explain GNNs is through counterfactual explanation, which aims to find minimum perturbations on input graphs that change the GNN predictions. Existing works on GNN counterfactual explanations primarily concentrate on the local-level perspective (i.e., generating counterfactuals for each individual graph), which suffers from information overload and lacks insights into the broader cross-graph relationships. To address such issues, we propose GlobalGCE, a novel global-level graph counterfactual explanation method. GlobalGCE aims to identify a collection of subgraph mapping rules as counterfactual explanations for the target GNN. According to these rules, substituting certain significant subgraphs with their counterfactual subgraphs will change the GNN prediction to the desired class for most graphs (i.e., maximum coverage). Methodologically, we design a significant subgraph generator and a counterfactual subgraph autoencoder in our GlobalGCE, where the subgraphs and the rules can be effectively generated. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our GlobalGCE compared to existing baselines. Our code can be found at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/GlobalGCE-92E8.

Yuzhe Wang, Yaochen Zhu, Jundong Li

As large language models (LLMs) witness increasing deployment in complex, high-stakes decision-making scenarios, it becomes imperative to ground their reasoning in causality rather than spurious correlations. However, strong performance on traditional reasoning benchmarks does not guarantee true causal reasoning ability of LLMs, as high accuracy may still arise from memorizing semantic patterns instead of analyzing the underlying true causal structures. To bridge this critical gap, we propose a new causal reasoning benchmark, CausalFlip, designed to encourage the development of new LLM paradigm or training algorithms that ground LLM reasoning in causality rather than semantic correlation. CausalFlip consists of causal judgment questions built over event triples that could form different confounder, chain, and collider relations. Based on this, for each event triple, we construct pairs of semantically similar questions that reuse the same events but yield opposite causal answers, where models that rely heavily on semantic matching are systematically driven toward incorrect predictions. To further probe models' reliance on semantic patterns, we introduce a noisy-prefix evaluation that prepends causally irrelevant text before intermediate causal reasoning steps without altering the underlying causal relations or the logic of the reasoning process. We evaluate LLMs under multiple training paradigms, including answer-only training, explicit Chain-of-Thought (CoT) supervision, and a proposed internalized causal reasoning approach that aims to mitigate explicit reliance on correlation in the reasoning process. Our results show that explicit CoT can still be misled by spurious semantic correlations, where internalizing reasoning steps yields substantially improved causal grounding, suggesting that it is promising to better elicit the latent causal reasoning capabilities of base LLMs.

Yinhan He, Wendy Zheng, Yaochen Zhu et al.

The verbosity of Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning hinders its mass deployment in efficiency-critical applications. Recently, implicit CoT approaches have emerged, which encode reasoning steps within LLM's hidden embeddings (termed ``implicit reasoning'') rather than explicit tokens. This approach accelerates CoT by reducing the reasoning length and bypassing some LLM components. However, existing implicit CoT methods face two significant challenges: (1) they fail to preserve the semantic alignment between the implicit reasoning (when transformed to natural language) and the ground-truth reasoning, resulting in a significant CoT performance degradation, and (2) they focus on reducing the length of the implicit reasoning; however, they neglect the considerable time cost for an LLM to generate one individual implicit reasoning token. To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel semantically-aligned implicit CoT framework termed SemCoT. In particular, for the first challenge, we design a contrastively trained sentence transformer that evaluates semantic alignment between implicit and explicit reasoning, which is used to enforce semantic preservation during implicit reasoning optimization. To address the second challenge, we introduce an efficient implicit reasoning generator by finetuning a lightweight language model using knowledge distillation. This generator is guided by our sentence transformer to distill ground-truth reasoning into semantically aligned implicit reasoning, while also optimizing for accuracy. SemCoT is the first approach that enhances CoT efficiency by jointly optimizing token-level generation speed and preserving semantic alignment with ground-truth reasoning. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior performance of SemCoT compared to state-of-the-art methods in both efficiency and effectiveness. Our code can be found at https://github.com/YinhanHe123/SemCoT/.

Zhenyu Lei, Patrick Soga, Yaochen Zhu et al.

Understanding and continuously refining multimodal molecular knowledge is crucial for advancing biomedicine, chemistry, and materials science. Molecule language models (MoLMs) have become powerful tools in these domains, integrating structural representations (e.g., SMILES strings, molecular graphs) with rich contextual descriptions (e.g., physicochemical properties). However, MoLMs can encode and propagate inaccuracies due to outdated web-mined training corpora or malicious manipulation, jeopardizing downstream discovery pipelines. While knowledge editing has been explored for general-domain AI, its application to MoLMs remains uncharted, presenting unique challenges due to the multifaceted and interdependent nature of molecular knowledge. In this paper, we take the first step toward MoLM editing for two critical tasks: molecule-to-caption generation and caption-to-molecule generation. To address molecule-specific challenges, we propose MolEdit, a powerful framework that enables targeted modifications while preserving unrelated molecular knowledge. MolEdit combines a Multi-Expert Knowledge Adapter that routes edits to specialized experts for different molecular facets with an Expertise-Aware Editing Switcher that activates the adapters only when input closely matches the stored edits across all expertise, minimizing interference with unrelated knowledge. To systematically evaluate editing performance, we introduce MEBench, a comprehensive benchmark assessing multiple dimensions, including Reliability (accuracy of the editing), Locality (preservation of irrelevant knowledge), and Generality (robustness to reformed queries). Across extensive experiments on two popular MoLM backbones, MolEdit delivers up to 18.8% higher Reliability and 12.0% better Locality than baselines while maintaining efficiency. The code is available at: https://github.com/LzyFischer/MolEdit.

Yaochen Zhu, Jing Yi, Jiayi Xie et al.

Traditional recommender systems aim to estimate a user's rating to an item based on observed ratings from the population. As with all observational studies, hidden confounders, which are factors that affect both item exposures and user ratings, lead to a systematic bias in the estimation. Consequently, a new trend in recommender system research is to negate the influence of confounders from a causal perspective. Observing that confounders in recommendations are usually shared among items and are therefore multi-cause confounders, we model the recommendation as a multi-cause multi-outcome (MCMO) inference problem. Specifically, to remedy confounding bias, we estimate user-specific latent variables that render the item exposures independent Bernoulli trials. The generative distribution is parameterized by a DNN with factorized logistic likelihood and the intractable posteriors are estimated by variational inference. Controlling these factors as substitute confounders, under mild assumptions, can eliminate the bias incurred by multi-cause confounders. Furthermore, we show that MCMO modeling may lead to high variance due to scarce observations associated with the high-dimensional causal space. Fortunately, we theoretically demonstrate that introducing user features as pre-treatment variables can substantially improve sample efficiency and alleviate overfitting. Empirical studies on simulated and real-world datasets show that the proposed deep causal recommender shows more robustness to unobserved confounders than state-of-the-art causal recommenders. Codes and datasets are released at https://github.com/yaochenzhu/deep-deconf.

Yaochen Zhu, Zhenzhong Chen

Hybrid recommendations have recently attracted a lot of attention where user features are utilized as auxiliary information to address the sparsity problem caused by insufficient user-item interactions. However, extracted user features generally contain rich multimodal information, and most of them are irrelevant to the recommendation purpose. Therefore, excessive reliance on these features will make the model overfit on noise and difficult to generalize. In this article, we propose a variational bandwidth auto-encoder (VBAE) for recommendations, aiming to address the sparsity and noise problems simultaneously. VBAE first encodes user collaborative and feature information into Gaussian latent variables via deep neural networks to capture non-linear user similarities. Moreover, by considering the fusion of collaborative and feature variables as a virtual communication channel from an information-theoretic perspective, we introduce a user-dependent channel to dynamically control the information allowed to be accessed from the feature embeddings. A quantum-inspired uncertainty measurement of the hidden rating embeddings is proposed accordingly to infer the channel bandwidth by disentangling the uncertainty information in the ratings from the semantic information. Through this mechanism, VBAE incorporates adequate auxiliary information from user features if collaborative information is insufficient, while avoiding excessive reliance on noisy user features to improve its generalization ability to new users. Extensive experiments conducted on three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Codes and datasets are released at https://github.com/yaochenzhu/vbae.

Mingjia Shi, Yinhan He, Yaochen Zhu et al.

Vision-language models (VLMs) aim to reason by jointly leveraging visual and textual modalities. While allocating additional inference-time computation has proven effective for large language models (LLMs), achieving similar scaling in VLMs remains challenging. A key obstacle is that visual inputs are typically provided only once at the start of generation, while textual reasoning (e.g., early visual summaries) is generated autoregressively, causing reasoning to become increasingly text-dominated and allowing early visual grounding errors to accumulate. Moreover, vanilla guidance for visual grounding during inference is often coarse and noisy, making it difficult to steer reasoning over long texts. To address these challenges, we propose \emph{Saliency-Aware Principle} (SAP) selection. SAP operates on high-level reasoning principles rather than token-level trajectories, which enable stable control over discrete generation under noisy feedback while allowing later reasoning steps to re-consult visual evidence when renewed grounding is required. In addition, SAP supports multi-route inference, enabling parallel exploration of diverse reasoning behaviors. SAP is model-agnostic and data-free, requiring no additional training. Empirical results show that SAP achieves competitive performance, especially in reducing object hallucination, under comparable token-generation budgets while yielding more stable reasoning and lower response latency than CoT-style long sequential reasoning.

Xingbo Fu, Zehong Wang, Zihan Chen et al.

Graph learning models have demonstrated great prowess in learning expressive representations from large-scale graph data in a wide variety of real-world scenarios. As a prevalent strategy for training powerful graph learning models, the "pre-training, adaptation" scheme first pre-trains graph learning models on unlabeled graph data in a self-supervised manner and then adapts them to specific downstream tasks. During the adaptation phase, graph prompting emerges as a promising approach that learns trainable prompts while keeping the pre-trained graph learning models unchanged. In this paper, we present a systematic review of recent advancements in graph prompting. First, we introduce representative graph pre-training methods that serve as the foundation step of graph prompting. Next, we review mainstream techniques in graph prompting and elaborate on how they design learnable prompts for graph prompting. Furthermore, we summarize the real-world applications of graph prompting from different domains. Finally, we discuss several open challenges in existing studies with promising future directions in this field.

Song Wang, Zhen Tan, Yaochen Zhu et al.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization on graphs aims at dealing with scenarios where the test graph distribution differs from the training graph distributions. Compared to i.i.d. data like images, the OOD generalization problem on graph-structured data remains challenging due to the non-i.i.d. property and complex structural information on graphs. Recently, several works on graph OOD generalization have explored extracting invariant subgraphs that share crucial classification information across different distributions. Nevertheless, such a strategy could be suboptimal for entirely capturing the invariant information, as the extraction of discrete structures could potentially lead to the loss of invariant information or the involvement of spurious information. In this paper, we propose an innovative framework, named Generative Risk Minimization (GRM), designed to generate an invariant subgraph for each input graph to be classified, instead of extraction. To address the challenge of optimization in the absence of optimal invariant subgraphs (i.e., ground truths), we derive a tractable form of the proposed GRM objective by introducing a latent causal variable, and its effectiveness is validated by our theoretical analysis. We further conduct extensive experiments across a variety of real-world graph datasets for both node-level and graph-level OOD generalization, and the results demonstrate the superiority of our framework GRM.

Yaochen Zhu, Yinhan He, Jing Ma et al.

Causality lays the foundation for the trajectory of our world. Causal inference (CI), which aims to infer intrinsic causal relations among variables of interest, has emerged as a crucial research topic. Nevertheless, the lack of observation of important variables (e.g., confounders, mediators, exogenous variables, etc.) severely compromises the reliability of CI methods. The issue may arise from the inherent difficulty in measuring the variables. Additionally, in observational studies where variables are passively recorded, certain covariates might be inadvertently omitted by the experimenter. Depending on the type of unobserved variables and the specific CI task, various consequences can be incurred if these latent variables are carelessly handled, such as biased estimation of causal effects, incomplete understanding of causal mechanisms, lack of individual-level causal consideration, etc. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of recent developments in CI with latent variables. We start by discussing traditional CI techniques when variables of interest are assumed to be fully observed. Afterward, under the taxonomy of circumvention and inference-based methods, we provide an in-depth discussion of various CI strategies to handle latent variables, covering the tasks of causal effect estimation, mediation analysis, counterfactual reasoning, and causal discovery. Furthermore, we generalize the discussion to graph data where interference among units may exist. Finally, we offer fresh aspects for further advancement of CI with latent variables, especially new opportunities in the era of large language models (LLMs).

Haochen Liu, Song Wang, Yaochen Zhu et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown unprecedented performance in various real-world applications. However, they are known to generate factually inaccurate outputs, a.k.a. the hallucination problem. In recent years, incorporating external knowledge extracted from Knowledge Graphs (KGs) has become a promising strategy to improve the factual accuracy of LLM-generated outputs. Nevertheless, most existing explorations rely on LLMs themselves to perform KG knowledge extraction, which is highly inflexible as LLMs can only provide binary judgment on whether a certain knowledge (e.g., a knowledge path in KG) should be used. In addition, LLMs tend to pick only knowledge with direct semantic relationship with the input text, while potentially useful knowledge with indirect semantics can be ignored. In this work, we propose a principled framework KELP with three stages to handle the above problems. Specifically, KELP is able to achieve finer granularity of flexible knowledge extraction by generating scores for knowledge paths with input texts via latent semantic matching. Meanwhile, knowledge paths with indirect semantic relationships with the input text can also be considered via trained encoding between the selected paths in KG and the input text. Experiments on real-world datasets validate the effectiveness of KELP.

Jing Yi, Yaochen Zhu, Jiayi Xie et al.

In this paper, we propose a cross-modal variational auto-encoder (CMVAE) for content-based micro-video background music recommendation. CMVAE is a hierarchical Bayesian generative model that matches relevant background music to a micro-video by projecting these two multimodal inputs into a shared low-dimensional latent space, where the alignment of two corresponding embeddings of a matched video-music pair is achieved by cross-generation. Moreover, the multimodal information is fused by the product-of-experts (PoE) principle, where the semantic information in visual and textual modalities of the micro-video are weighted according to their variance estimations such that the modality with a lower noise level is given more weights. Therefore, the micro-video latent variables contain less irrelevant information that results in a more robust model generalization. Furthermore, we establish a large-scale content-based micro-video background music recommendation dataset, TT-150k, composed of approximately 3,000 different background music clips associated to 150,000 micro-videos from different users. Extensive experiments on the established TT-150k dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. A qualitative assessment of CMVAE by visualizing some recommendation results is also included.

Yaochen Zhu, Jiayi Xie, Zhenzhong Chen

As an emerging type of user-generated content, micro-video drastically enriches people's entertainment experiences and social interactions. However, the popularity pattern of an individual micro-video still remains elusive among the researchers. One of the major challenges is that the potential popularity of a micro-video tends to fluctuate under the impact of various external factors, which makes it full of uncertainties. In addition, since micro-videos are mainly uploaded by individuals that lack professional techniques, multiple types of noise could exist that obscure useful information. In this paper, we propose a multimodal variational encoder-decoder (MMVED) framework for micro-video popularity prediction tasks. MMVED learns a stochastic Gaussian embedding of a micro-video that is informative to its popularity level while preserves the inherent uncertainties simultaneously. Moreover, through the optimization of a deep variational information bottleneck lower-bound (IBLBO), the learned hidden representation is shown to be maximally expressive about the popularity target while maximally compressive to the noise in micro-video features. Furthermore, the Bayesian product-of-experts principle is applied to the multimodal encoder, where the decision for information keeping or discarding is made comprehensively with all available modalities. Extensive experiments conducted on a public dataset and a dataset we collect from Xigua demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed MMVED framework.