Karma Tobden

KMA Solaiman, Joshua Sebastian, Karma Tobden

Emergency triage decisions are made under severe information constraints, yet most data-driven deterioration models are evaluated using signals unavailable during initial assessment. We present a leakage-aware benchmarking framework for early deterioration prediction that evaluates model performance under realistic, time-limited sensing conditions. Using a patient-deduplicated cohort derived from MIMIC-IV-ED, we compare hospital-rich triage with a vitals-only, MCI-like setting, restricting inputs to information available within the first hour of presentation. Across multiple modeling approaches, predictive performance declines only modestly when limited to vitals, indicating that early physiological measurements retain substantial clinical signal. Structured ablation and interpretability analyses identify respiratory and oxygenation measures as the most influential contributors to early risk stratification, with models exhibiting stable, graceful degradation as sensing is reduced. This work provides a clinically grounded benchmark to support the evaluation and design of deployable triage decision-support systems in resource-constrained settings.

Joshua Sebastian, Karma Tobden, KMA Solaiman

Research on emergency and mass casualty incident (MCI) triage has been limited by the absence of openly usable, reproducible benchmarks. Yet these scenarios demand rapid identification of the patients most in need, where accurate deterioration prediction can guide timely interventions. While the MIMIC-IV-ED database is openly available to credentialed researchers, transforming it into a triage-focused benchmark requires extensive preprocessing, feature harmonization, and schema alignment -- barriers that restrict accessibility to only highly technical users. We address these gaps by first introducing an open, LLM-assisted emergency triage benchmark for deterioration prediction (ICU transfer, in-hospital mortality). The benchmark then defines two regimes: (i) a hospital-rich setting with vitals, labs, notes, chief complaints, and structured observations, and (ii) an MCI-like field simulation limited to vitals, observations, and notes. Large language models (LLMs) contributed directly to dataset construction by (i) harmonizing noisy fields such as AVPU and breathing devices, (ii) prioritizing clinically relevant vitals and labs, and (iii) guiding schema alignment and efficient merging of disparate tables. We further provide baseline models and SHAP-based interpretability analyses, illustrating predictive gaps between regimes and the features most critical for triage. Together, these contributions make triage prediction research more reproducible and accessible -- a step toward dataset democratization in clinical AI.