Emrah Akyol

Xiaobin Gao, Emrah Akyol, Tamer Basar

This paper considers a sequential sensor scheduling and remote estimation problem with one sensor and one estimator. The sensor makes sequential observations about the state of an underlying memoryless stochastic process and makes a decision as to whether or not to send this measurement to the estimator. The sensor and the estimator have the common objective of minimizing expected distortion in the estimation of the state of the process, over a finite time horizon. The sensor is either charged a cost for each transmission or constrained on transmission times. As opposed to the prior work where communication between the sensor and the estimator was assumed to be perfect (noiseless), in this work an additive noise channel with fixed power constraint is considered; hence, the sensor has to encode its message before transmission. Under some technical assumptions, we obtain the optimal encoding and estimation policies in conjunction with the optimal transmission schedule. The impact of the presence of a noisy channel is analyzed numerically based on dynamic programming. This analysis yields some rather surprising results such as a phase transition phenomenon in the number of used transmission opportunities, which was not encountered in the noiseless communication setting.

Xiaobin Gao, Emrah Akyol, Tamer Basar

This paper considers a sequential sensor scheduling and remote estimation problem with multiple communication channels. Departing from the classical remote estimation paradigm, which involves one communication channel (noiseless or noisy), we consider here the more realistic setting of two channels with different characteristics (one is cheap but noisy, the other one is costly but noiseless). We first show, via a counter-example, that the common folklore of applying symmetric threshold-based policy, which is well known to be optimal (for unimodal state densities) in the classical remote estimation problem, can no longer be optimal in our setting. In view of that, and in order to make the problem tractable, we introduce a side channel which signals to the receiver the sign of the underlying state. We show, under some technical assumptions, that a threshold-in-threshold based communication scheduling is optimal. The impact of the results is analyzed numerically based on dynamic programming. This numerical analysis reveals some rather surprising results inheriting known properties from the single channel settings, such as not exhausting all the opportunities available for the noisy channel.

Venkata Sriram Siddhardh Nadendla, Emrah Akyol, Cedric Langbort et al.

In this paper, we model a Stackelberg game in a simple Gaussian test channel where a human transmitter (leader) communicates a source message to a human receiver (follower). We model human decision making using prospect theory models proposed for continuous decision spaces. Assuming that the value function is the squared distortion at both the transmitter and the receiver, we analyze the effects of the weight functions at both the transmitter and the receiver on optimal communication strategies, namely encoding at the transmitter and decoding at the receiver, in the Stackelberg sense. We show that the optimal strategies for the behavioral agents in the Stackelberg sense are identical to those designed for unbiased agents. At the same time, we also show that the prospect-theoretic distortions at both the transmitter and the receiver are both larger than the expected distortion, thus making behavioral agents less contended than unbiased agents. Consequently, the presence of cognitive biases increases the need for transmission power in order to achieve a given distortion at both transmitter and receiver.

Emrah Akyol, Kenneth Rose, Tamer Basar

This paper considers the problem of optimal zero-delay jamming over an additive noise channel. Early work had already solved this problem for a Gaussian source and channel. Building on a sequence of recent results on conditions for linearity of optimal estimation, and of optimal mappings in source-channel coding, we derive the saddle-point solution to the jamming problem for general sources and channels, without recourse to Gaussian assumptions. We show that linearity conditions play a pivotal role in jamming, in the sense that the optimal jamming strategy is to effectively force both transmitter and receiver to default to linear mappings, i.e., the jammer ensures, whenever possible, that the transmitter and receiver cannot benefit from non-linear strategies. This result is shown to subsume the known result for Gaussian source and channel. We analyze conditions and general settings where such unbeatable strategy can indeed be achieved by the jammer. Moreover, we provide the procedure to approximate optimal jamming in the remaining (source-channel) cases where the jammer cannot impose linearity on the transmitter and the receiver.

Muhammed Sayin, Emrah Akyol, Tamer Basar

This paper analyzes a finite horizon dynamic signaling game motivated by the well-known strategic information transmission problems in economics. The mathematical model involves information transmission between two agents, a sender who observes two Gaussian processes, state and bias, and a receiver who takes an action based on the received message from the sender. The players incur quadratic instantaneous costs as functions of the state, bias and action variables. Our particular focus is on the Stackelberg equilibrium, which corresponds to information disclosure and Bayesian persuasion problems in economics. Prior work solved the static game, and showed that the Stackelberg equilibrium is achieved by pure strategies that are linear functions of the state and the bias variables. The main focus of this work is on the dynamic (multi-stage) setting, where we show that the existence of a pure strategy Stackelberg equilibrium, within the set of linear strategies, depends on the problem parameters. Surprisingly, for most problem parameters, a pure linear strategy does not achieve the Stackelberg equilibrium which implies the existence of a trade-off between exploiting and revealing information, which was also encountered in several other asymmetric information games.

Yanbing Mao, Sadegh Bolouki, Emrah Akyol

This paper provides a model to investigate information spreading over cyber-social network of agents communicating with each other. The cyber-social network considered here comprises individuals and news agencies. Each individual holds a belief represented by a scalar. Individuals receive information from news agencies that are closer to their belief, confirmation bias is explicitly incorporated into the model. The proposed dynamics of cyber-social networks is adopted from DeGroot-Friedkin model, where the individual's opinion update mechanism is a convex combination of his innate opinion, his neighbors' opinions at the previous time step (obtained from the social network), and the opinions passed along by news agencies from cyber layer which he follows. The characteristics of the interdependent social and cyber networks are radically different here: the social network relies on trust and hence static while the news agencies are highly dynamic since they are weighted as a function of the distance between an individual state and the state of news agency to account for confirmation bias. The conditions for convergence of the aforementioned dynamics to a unique equilibrium are characterized. The estimation and exact computation of the steady-state values under non-linear and linear state-dependent weight functions are provided. Finally, the impact of polarization in the opinions of news agencies on the public opinion evolution is numerically analyzed in the context of the well-known Krackhardt's advice network.

Yanbing Mao, Emrah Akyol, Ziang Zhang

In this two-part paper, we consider strategic topology switching for the second-order multi-agent systems under a special class of stealthy attacks, namely the "zero-dynamics" attack (ZDA). The main mathematical tool proposed here is to strategically switch the network topology to detect a possible ZDA. However, it is not clear a priori that such a switching strategy still yields consensus in this switched system, in the normal (un-attacked) operation mode. In Part I, we propose a strategy on the switching times that enables the topology-switching algorithm proposed in Part II to reach the second-order consensus in the absence of a ZDA. Utilizing the theory of stable switched linear systems with unstable subsystems, we characterize sufficient conditions for the dwell time of topology-switching signal to reach consensus. Building on this characterization, we then propose a decentralized time-dependent topology-switching algorithm. The proposed algorithm, used in conjunction with a simplified control protocol, achieves consensus while providing substantial advantages over other control approaches: it relies only on the relative position measurements (without any requirement for velocity measurements); and it does not impose any constraint on the magnitudes of coupling weights. We finally demonstrate our theoretical findings via the numerical simulation results.

Mustafa Mehmetoglu, Emrah Akyol, Kenneth Rose

This note studies the global optimization of controller mappings in discrete-time stochastic control problems including Witsenhausen's celebrated 1968 counter-example. We propose a generally applicable non-convex numerical optimization method based on the concept of deterministic annealing-which is derived from information-theoretic principles and was successfully employed in several problems including vector quantization, classification, and regression. We present comparative numerical results for two test problems that show the strict superiority of the proposed method over prior approaches in the literature.

Zhewei Wang, Emrah Akyol, Marcos M. Vasconcelos

Network coordination games are widely used to model collaboration among interconnected agents, with applications across diverse domains including economics, robotics, and cyber-security. We consider networks of bounded-rational agents who interact through binary stag hunt games, a canonical game theoretic model for distributed collaborative tasks. Herein, the agents update their actions using logit response functions, yielding the Log-Linear Learning (LLL) algorithm. While convergence of LLL to a risk-dominant Nash equilibrium requires unbounded rationality, we consider regimes in which rationality is strictly bounded. We first show that the stationary probability of states corresponding to perfect coordination is monotone increasing in the rationality parameter $β$. For $K$-regular networks, we prove that the stationary probability of a perfectly coordinated action profile is monotone in the connectivity degree $K$, and we provide an upper bound on the minimum rationality required to achieve a desired level of coordination. For irregular networks, we show that the stationary probability of perfectly coordinated action profiles increases with the number of edges in the graph. We show that, for a large class of networks, the partition function of the Gibbs measure is well approximated by the moment generating function of Gaussian random variable. This approximation allows us to optimize degree distributions and establishes that the optimal network - i.e., the one that maximizes the stationary probability of coordinated action profiles - is $K$-regular. Consequently, our results indicate that networks of uniformly bounded-rational agents achieve the most reliable coordination when connectivity is evenly distributed among agents.

M. Hossein Abedinzadeh, Emrah Akyol

We study multidimensional opinion dynamics under confirmation bias in social networks. Each agent holds a vector of correlated opinions across multiple topic layers. Peer interaction is modeled through a static, informationally symmetric social channel, while external information enters through a dynamic, informationally asymmetric source channel. Source influence is described by nonnegative state-dependent functions of agent--source opinion mismatch, which captures confirmation bias without hard thresholds. For general Lipschitz source-influence functions, we give sufficient conditions under which the dynamics are contractive and converge to a unique steady state independent of the initial condition. For affine confirmation-bias functions, we show that the steady state can be computed through a finite sign-consistency search and identify a regime in which it admits a closed form. For broader classes of bounded nonlinear source-influence functions, we derive explicit lower and upper bounds on the fixed point. Numerical examples and a study on a real-world adolescent lifestyle network illustrate the role of multidimensional coupling and show that source-design conclusions can change qualitatively when confirmation bias is ignored.

Emrah Akyol

We study strategic Gaussian semantic compression under rate and compute constraints, where an encoder and decoder optimize distinct quadratic objectives. A latent Gaussian state generates a task dependent semantic variable, and the decoder best responds via MMSE estimation, reducing the encoder's problem to posterior covariance design under an information rate constraint. We characterize the strategic rate distortion function in direct, remote, and full information regimes, derive semantic waterfilling and rate constrained Gaussian persuasion solutions, and establish Gaussian optimality under misaligned objectives. We further show that architectural compute limits act as implicit rate constraints, yielding exponential improvements in semantic accuracy with model depth and inference time compute, while multimodal observation eliminates the geometric mean penalty inherent to remote encoding. These results provide information theoretic foundations for data and energy efficient AI and offer a principled interpretation of modern multimodal language models as posterior design mechanisms under resource constraints.

Emrah Akyol, Kenneth Rose, Tamer Basar et al.

This paper studies optimal communication and coordination strategies in cyber-physical systems for both defender and attacker within a game-theoretic framework. We model the communication network of a cyber-physical system as a sensor network which involves one single Gaussian source observed by many sensors, subject to additive independent Gaussian observation noises. The sensors communicate with the estimator over a coherent Gaussian multiple access channel. The aim of the receiver is to reconstruct the underlying source with minimum mean squared error. The scenario of interest here is one where some of the sensors are captured by the attacker and they act as the adversary (jammer): they strive to maximize distortion. The receiver (estimator) knows the captured sensors but still cannot simply ignore them due to the multiple access channel, i.e., the outputs of all sensors are summed to generate the estimator input. We show that the ability of transmitter sensors to secretly agree on a random event, that is "coordination", plays a key role in the analysis...

Kivanc Mihcak, Emrah Akyol, Tamer Basar et al.

We introduce the zero-sum game problem of soft watermarking: The hidden information (watermark) comes from a continuum and has a perceptual value; the receiver generates an estimate of the embedded watermark to minimize the expected estimation error (unlike the conventional watermarking schemes where both the hidden information and the receiver output are from a discrete finite set). Applications include embedding a multimedia content into another. We consider in this paper the scalar Gaussian case and use expected mean-squared distortion. We formulate the resulting problem as a zero-sum game between the encoder & receiver pair and the attacker. We show that for the lin- ear encoder, the optimal attacker is Gaussian-affine, derive the optimal system parameters in that case, and discuss the corresponding system behavior. We also provide numerical results to gain further insight and understanding of the system behavior at optimality.

Emrah Akyol, Urbashi Mitra

Path planning is an important component of au- tonomous mobile sensing systems. This paper studies upper and lower bounds of communication performance over Gaussian sen- sor networks, to drive power-distortion metrics for path planning problems. The Gaussian multiple-access channel is employed as a channel model and two source models are considered. In the first setting, the underlying source is estimated with minimum mean squared error, while in the second, reconstruction of a random spatial field is considered. For both problem settings, the upper and the lower bounds of sensor power-distortion curve are derived. For both settings, the upper bounds follow from the amplify-and-forward scheme and the lower bounds admit a unified derivation based on data processing inequality and tensorization property of the maximal correlation measure. Next, closed-form solutions of the optimal power allocation problems are obtained under a weighted sum-power constraint. The gap between the upper and the lower bounds is analyzed for both weighted sum and individual power constrained settings. Finally, these metrics are used to drive a path planning algorithm and the effects of power-distortion metrics, network parameters, and power optimization on the optimized path selection are analyzed.

Xiaobin Gao, Emrah Akyol, Tamer Basar

This paper considers a sequential estimation and sensor scheduling problem in the presence of multiple communication channels. As opposed to the classical remote estimation problem that involves one perfect (noiseless) channel and one extremely noisy channel (which corresponds to not transmitting the observed state), a more realistic additive noise channel with fixed power constraint along with a more costly perfect channel is considered. It is shown, via a counter-example, that the common folklore of applying symmetric threshold policy, which is well known to be optimal (for unimodal state densities) in the classical two-channel remote estimation problem, can be suboptimal for the setting considered. Next, in order to make the problem tractable, a side channel which signals the sign of the underlying state is considered. It is shown that, under some technical assumptions, threshold-in-threshold communication scheduling is optimal for this setting. The impact of the presence of a noisy channel is analyzed numerically based on dynamic programming. This numerical analysis uncovers some rather surprising results inheriting known properties from the noisy and noiseless settings.

Xiaobin Gao, Emrah Akyol, Tamer Basar

We consider a sensor scheduling and remote estimation problem with one sensor and one estimator. At each time step, the sensor makes an observation on the state of a source, and then decides whether to transmit its observation to the estimator or not. The sensor is charged a cost for each transmission. The remote estimator generates a real-time estimate on the state of the source based on the messages received from the sensor. The estimator is charged for estimation error. As compared with previous works from the literature, we further assume that there is an additive communication channel noise. As a consequence, the sensor needs to encode the message before transmitting it to the estimator. For some specific distributions of the underlying random variables, we obtain the optimal solution to the problem of minimizing the expected value of the sum of communication cost and estimation cost over the time horizon.

Xiaobin Gao, Emrah Akyol, Tamer Basar

This paper considers a sequential estimation and sensor scheduling problem with one sensor and one estimator. The sensor makes sequential observations about the state of an underlying memoryless stochastic process, and makes a decision as to whether or not to send this measurement to the estimator. The sensor and the estimator have the common objective of minimizing expected distortion in the estimation of the state of the process, over a finite time horizon, with the constraint that the sensor can transmit its observation only a limited number of times. As opposed to the prior work where communication between the sensor and the estimator was assumed to be perfect (noiseless), in this work an additive noise channel with fixed power constraint is considered; hence, the sensor has to encode its message before transmission. For some specific source and channel noise densities, we obtain the optimal encoding and estimation policies in conjunction with the optimal transmission schedule. The impact of the presence of a noisy channel is analyzed numerically based on dynamic programming. This analysis yields some rather surprising results such as a phase-transition phenomenon in the number of used transmission opportunities, which was not encountered in the noiseless communication setting.