Scott Niekum

Abhranil Chandra, Sankaran Vaidyanathan, Utsav Dhanuka et al.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to take actions in the real world and support human decision-making, yet most agents rely on parametric knowledge, fixed post-training data, retrieval, or search. This paradigm breaks down in novel domains and for sophisticated queries that cannot be answered from prior knowledge alone. Knowing the laws of physics, for instance, does not by itself enable LLMs to answer queries or complete long-horizon tasks in a complex physical system. To address this, we introduce Hierarchical Experimentalist Agents (HExA), an in-context self-improvement framework to learn from active experimentation. HExA iteratively designs and refines query-relevant experiments, learns a reusable library of composable skills from experience, and integrates experimental evidence to answer queries or take actions. HExA is training-free, compatible with any black-box model, and does not require external supervision, oracles, or offline data. To evaluate active experimentation, we introduce Interphyre, a tool-calling benchmark built on the PHYRE 2D procedural physics environment, where agents propose interventions and test hypotheses through simulation APIs. Experiments show that current LLM agents struggle in these settings, especially on the hardest levels of Interphyre. Claude Sonnet 4.6 achieves only 2% success, while HExA improves the same model to up to 77% success. HExA also improves open-weight models and outperforms agentic baselines such as ReAct and Reflexion. Moreover, using only skills learned from easier levels and transferred without active experimentation, HExA achieves 44% success, demonstrating the reusability and generalization of its learned skills. Overall, HExA shows that learning through active experimentation can help agents discover useful knowledge, acquire reusable skills, and make efficient progress on novel long-horizon tasks.

Sankaran Vaidyanathan, David Arbour, Aaron Mueller et al.

Activation patching is the primary tool in mechanistic interpretability. It attributes causal responsibility for a model behavior to each of its individual components by estimating its natural indirect effect (NIE). Re-deriving the activation patching estimand from causal mediation analysis, we find that the NIE does not solely capture the causal effect through the specific component. It also contains interaction effects (INT) that measure how much the component's causal effect itself depends on the state of other components in the model. A natural response may be to try to eliminate INT by adjusting the estimator or unit of analysis, but each of these potential remedies has predictable failure modes. We demonstrate these failure modes in the GPT-2 IOI circuit; components whose causal importance is conditional on the state of other components are either invisible or artificially inflated, and INT variance explains the previously documented instability of faithfulness scores. We prove that INT scales with the distance between clean and patched component activations, is negligible when the model is locally affine, and decomposes combinatorially into pairwise and higher-order group interactions. Despite its inevitability, INT is not a nuisance to be eliminated, but rather a diagnostic for interpretability studies. Its individual and group-level magnitude and sign signal when causal conclusions are prompt-dependent, and when greedy NIE-based component ranking will miss mechanisms only discoverable through combinatorial search.

Will Schwarzer, Scott Niekum

Estimating how often an ML model will fail at deployment scale is central to pre-deployment safety assessment, but a feasible evaluation set is rarely large enough to observe the failures that matter. Jones et al. (2025) address this by extrapolating from the largest k failure scores in an evaluation set to predict deployment-scale failure rates. We give a finite-k decomposition of this estimator's forecast error and show that it has a built-in bias toward over-prediction in the typical case, which is the safety-favorable direction. This bias is offset when the evaluation set misses a rare high-failure mode that the deployment set contains, leaving the forecast to under-predict at deployment scale. We propose a fine-tuning objective, the forecastability loss, that addresses this failure mode. In two proof-of-concept experiments, a language-model password game and an RL gridworld, fine-tuning substantially reduces held-out forecast error while preserving primary-task capability and achieving safety similar to that of supervised baselines.