André Gonçalves

Gabriel Mendonça, Matheus Santos, André Gonçalves et al.

The fintech PicPay offers a wide range of financial services to its 30 million monthly active users, with more than 50 thousand items recommended in the PicPay mobile app. In this scenario, promoting specific items that are strategic to the company can be very challenging. In this work, we present a Switching Hybrid Recommender System that combines two algorithms to effectively promote items without negatively impacting the user's experience. The results of our A/B tests show an uplift of up to 3.2\% when compared to a default recommendation strategy.

Haonan Zhu, Andre R. Goncalves, Camilo Valdes et al.

This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayesian multitask learning model that is applicable to the general multi-task binary classification learning problem where the model assumes a shared sparsity structure across different tasks. We derive a computationally efficient inference algorithm based on variational inference to approximate the posterior distribution. We demonstrate the potential of the new approach on various synthetic datasets and for predicting human health status based on microbiome profile. Our analysis incorporates data pooled from multiple microbiome studies, along with a comprehensive comparison with other benchmark methods. Results in synthetic datasets show that the proposed approach has superior support recovery property when the underlying regression coefficients share a common sparsity structure across different tasks. Our experiments on microbiome classification demonstrate the utility of the method in extracting informative taxa while providing well-calibrated predictions with uncertainty quantification and achieving competitive performance in terms of prediction metrics. Notably, despite the heterogeneity of the pooled datasets (e.g., different experimental objectives, laboratory setups, sequencing equipment, patient demographics), our method delivers robust results.

Baoxiang Pan, Gemma J. Anderson, AndrE Goncalves et al.

The path toward realizing the potential of seasonal forecasting and its socioeconomic benefits depends heavily on improving general circulation model based dynamical forecasting systems. To improve dynamical seasonal forecast, it is crucial to set up forecast benchmarks, and clarify forecast limitations posed by model initialization errors, formulation deficiencies, and internal climate variability. With huge cost in generating large forecast ensembles, and limited observations for forecast verification, the seasonal forecast benchmarking and diagnosing task proves challenging. In this study, we develop a probabilistic deep neural network model, drawing on a wealth of existing climate simulations to enhance seasonal forecast capability and forecast diagnosis. By leveraging complex physical relationships encoded in climate simulations, our probabilistic forecast model demonstrates favorable deterministic and probabilistic skill compared to state-of-the-art dynamical forecast systems in quasi-global seasonal forecast of precipitation and near-surface temperature. We apply this probabilistic forecast methodology to quantify the impacts of initialization errors and model formulation deficiencies in a dynamical seasonal forecasting system. We introduce the saliency analysis approach to efficiently identify the key predictors that influence seasonal variability. Furthermore, by explicitly modeling uncertainty using variational Bayes, we give a more definitive answer to how the El Nino/Southern Oscillation, the dominant mode of seasonal variability, modulates global seasonal predictability.

Andre Goncalves, Xiaoli Liu, Arindam Banerjee

Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) has become a widely used optimization method for convex problems, particularly in the context of data mining in which large optimization problems are often encountered. ADMM has several desirable properties, including the ability to decompose large problems into smaller tractable sub-problems and ease of parallelization, that are essential in these scenarios. The most common form of ADMM is the two-block, in which two sets of primal variables are updated alternatingly. Recent years have seen advances in multi-block ADMM, which update more than two blocks of primal variables sequentially. In this paper, we study the empirical question: {\em Is two-block ADMM always comparable with sequential multi-block ADMM solving an equivalent problem?} In the context of optimization problems arising in multi-task learning, through a comprehensive set of experiments we surprisingly show that multi-block ADMM consistently outperformed two-block ADMM on optimization performance, and as a consequence on prediction performance, across all datasets and for the entire range of dual step sizes. Our results have an important practical implication: rather than simply using the popular two-block ADMM, one may considerably benefit from experimenting with multi-block ADMM applied to an equivalent problem.

André R. Gonçalves, Arindam Banerjee, Fernando J. Von Zuben

Future projection of climate is typically obtained by combining outputs from multiple Earth System Models (ESMs) for several climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. While IPCC has traditionally used a simple model output average, recent work has illustrated potential advantages of using a multitask learning (MTL) framework for projections of individual climate variables. In this paper we introduce a framework for hierarchical multitask learning (HMTL) with two levels of tasks such that each super-task, i.e., task at the top level, is itself a multitask learning problem over sub-tasks. For climate projections, each super-task focuses on projections of specific climate variables spatially using an MTL formulation. For the proposed HMTL approach, a group lasso regularization is added to couple parameters across the super-tasks, which in the climate context helps exploit relationships among the behavior of different climate variables at a given spatial location. We show that some recent works on MTL based on learning task dependency structures can be viewed as special cases of HMTL. Experiments on synthetic and real climate data show that HMTL produces better results than decoupled MTL methods applied separately on the super-tasks and HMTL significantly outperforms baselines for climate projection.

André R. Goncalves, Celso Cavelucci, Christiano Lyra Filho et al.

Installation of capacitors in distribution networks is one of the most used procedure to compensate reactive power generated by loads and, consequently, to reduce technical losses. So, the problem consists in identifying the optimal placement and sizing of capacitors. This problem is known in the literature as optimal capacitor placement problem. Neverthless, depending on the location and size of the capacitor, it may become a harmonic source, allowing capacitor to enter into resonance with the distribution network, causing several undesired side effects. In this work we propose a parsimonious method to deal with the capacitor placement problem that incorporates resonance constraints, ensuring that every allocated capacitor will not act as a harmonic source. This proposed algorithm is based upon a physical inspired metaheuristic known as Extremal Optimization. The results achieved showed that this proposal has reached significant gains when compared with other proposals that attempt repair, in a post-optimization stage, already obtained solutions which violate resonance constraints.

Andre R. Goncalves, Puja Das, Soumyadeep Chatterjee et al.

Multi-task learning (MTL) aims to improve generalization performance by learning multiple related tasks simultaneously. While sometimes the underlying task relationship structure is known, often the structure needs to be estimated from data at hand. In this paper, we present a novel family of models for MTL, applicable to regression and classification problems, capable of learning the structure of task relationships. In particular, we consider a joint estimation problem of the task relationship structure and the individual task parameters, which is solved using alternating minimization. The task relationship structure learning component builds on recent advances in structure learning of Gaussian graphical models based on sparse estimators of the precision (inverse covariance) matrix. We illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model on a variety of synthetic and benchmark datasets for regression and classification. We also consider the problem of combining climate model outputs for better projections of future climate, with focus on temperature in South America, and show that the proposed model outperforms several existing methods for the problem.