George Miloshevich

George Miloshevich, Bastien Cozian, Patrice Abry et al.

Understanding extreme events and their probability is key for the study of climate change impacts, risk assessment, adaptation, and the protection of living beings. Forecasting the occurrence probability of extreme heatwaves is a primary challenge for risk assessment and attribution, but also for fundamental studies about processes, dataset and model validation, and climate change studies. In this work we develop a methodology to build forecasting models which are based on convolutional neural networks, trained on extremely long climate model outputs. We demonstrate that neural networks have positive predictive skills, with respect to random climatological forecasts, for the occurrence of long-lasting 14-day heatwaves over France, up to 15 days ahead of time for fast dynamical drivers (500 hPa geopotential height fields), and also at much longer lead times for slow physical drivers (soil moisture). This forecast is made seamlessly in time and space, for fast hemispheric and slow local drivers. We find that the neural network selects extreme heatwaves associated with a North-Hemisphere wavenumber-3 pattern. The main scientific message is that most of the time, training neural networks for predicting extreme heatwaves occurs in a regime of lack of data. We suggest that this is likely to be the case for most other applications to large scale atmosphere and climate phenomena. For instance, using one hundred years-long training sets, a regime of drastic lack of data, leads to severely lower predictive skills and general inability to extract useful information available in the 500 hPa geopotential height field at a hemispheric scale in contrast to the dataset of several thousand years long. We discuss perspectives for dealing with the lack of data regime, for instance rare event simulations and how transfer learning may play a role in this latter task.

George Miloshevich, Dario Lucente, Pascal Yiou et al.

We present a data-driven emulator, stochastic weather generator (SWG), suitable for estimating probabilities of prolonged heatwaves in France and Scandinavia. This emulator is based on the method of analogs of circulation to which we add temperature and soil moisture as predictor fields. We train the emulator on an intermediate complexity climate model run and show that it is capable of predicting conditional probabilities (forecasting) of heatwaves out of sample. Special attention is payed that this prediction is evaluated using proper score appropriate for rare events. To accelerate the computation of analogs dimensionality reduction techniques are applied and the performance is evaluated. The probabilistic prediction achieved with SWG is compared with the one achieved with Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). With the availability of hundreds of years of training data CNNs perform better at the task of probabilistic prediction. In addition, we show that the SWG emulator trained on 80 years of data is capable of estimating extreme return times of order of thousands of years for heatwaves longer than several days more precisely than the fit based on generalised extreme value distribution. Finally, the quality of its synthetic extreme teleconnection patterns obtained with stochastic weather generator is studied. We showcase two examples of such synthetic teleconnection patterns for heatwaves in France and Scandinavia that compare favorably to the very long climate model control run.

Pedro Antunes, Muhammad Ihsan Al Hafiz, Jonah Ekelund et al.

Space missions increasingly deploy high-fidelity sensors that produce data volumes exceeding onboard buffering and downlink capacity. This work evaluates FPGA acceleration of neural networks (NNs) across four space use cases on the AMD ZCU104 board. We use Vitis AI (AMD DPU) and Vitis HLS to implement inference, quantify throughput and energy, and expose toolchain and architectural constraints relevant to deployment. Vitis AI achieves up to 34.16$\times$ higher inference rate than the embedded ARM CPU baseline, while custom HLS designs reach up to 5.4$\times$ speedup and add support for operators (e.g., sigmoids, 3D layers) absent in the DPU. For these implementations, measured MPSoC inference power spans 1.5-6.75 W, reducing energy per inference versus CPU execution in all use cases. These results show that NN FPGA acceleration can enable onboard filtering, compression, and event detection, easing downlink pressure in future missions.

George Miloshevich, Luka Vranckx, Felipe Nathan de Oliveira Lopes et al.

In this work, we introduce a non-local five-moment electron pressure tensor closure parametrized by a Fully Convolutional Neural Network (FCNN). Electron pressure plays an important role in generalized Ohm's law, competing with electron inertia. This model is used in the development of a surrogate model for a fully kinetic energy-conserving semi-implicit Particle-in-Cell simulation of decaying magnetosheath turbulence. We achieve this by training FCNN on a representative set of simulations with a smaller number of particles per cell and showing that our results generalise to a simulation with a large number of particles per cell. We evaluate the statistical properties of the learned equation of state, with a focus on pressure-strain interaction, which is crucial for understanding energy channels in turbulent plasmas. The resulting equation of state learned via FCNN significantly outperforms local closures, such as those learned by Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) or double adiabatic expressions. We report that the overall spatial distribution of pressure-strain and its conditional averages are reconstructed well. However, some small-scale features are missed, especially for the off-diagonal components of the pressure tensor. Nevertheless, the results are substantially improved with more training data, indicating favorable scaling and potential for improvement, which will be addressed in future work.