Victor Chien‐Chia Wu

Sergio González, Wan-Ting Hsieh, Davide Burba et al. · microsoft-research

Survival modeling in healthcare relies on explainable statistical models; yet, their underlying assumptions are often simplistic and, thus, unrealistic. Machine learning models can estimate more complex relationships and lead to more accurate predictions, but are non-interpretable. This study shows it is possible to estimate hospitalization for congestive heart failure by a 30 seconds single-lead electrocardiogram signal. Using a machine learning approach not only results in greater predictive power but also provides clinically meaningful interpretations. We train an eXtreme Gradient Boosting accelerated failure time model and exploit SHapley Additive exPlanations values to explain the effect of each feature on predictions. Our model achieved a concordance index of 0.828 and an area under the curve of 0.853 at one year and 0.858 at two years on a held-out test set of 6,573 patients. These results show that a rapid test based on an electrocardiogram could be crucial in targeting and treating high-risk individuals.

Sergio González, Abel Ko-Chun Yi, Wan-Ting Hsieh et al.

Cardiovascular diseases, including Heart Failure (HF), remain a leading global cause of mortality, often evading early detection. In this context, accessible and effective risk assessment is indispensable. Traditional approaches rely on resource-intensive diagnostic tests, typically administered after the onset of symptoms. The widespread availability of electrocardiogram (ECG) technology and the power of Machine Learning are emerging as viable alternatives within smart healthcare. In this paper, we propose several multi-modal approaches that combine 30-second ECG recordings and approximate long-term Heart Rate Variability (HRV) data to estimate the risk of HF hospitalization. We introduce two survival models: an XGBoost model with Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) incorporating comprehensive ECG features and a ResNet model that learns from the raw ECG. We extend these with our novel long-term HRVs extracted from the combination of ultra-short-term beat-to-beat measurements taken over the day. To capture their temporal dynamics, we propose a survival model comprising ResNet and Transformer architectures (TFM-ResNet). Our experiments demonstrate high model performance for HF risk assessment with a concordance index of 0.8537 compared to 14 survival models and competitive discrimination power on various external ECG datasets. After transferability tests with Apple Watch data, our approach implemented in the myHeartScore App offers cost-effective and highly accessible HF risk assessment, contributing to its prevention and management.

Hoi-Yin Lee, Peng Zhou, Anqing Duan et al.

This paper presents the development of a multi-sensor user interface to facilitate the instruction of arc welding tasks. Traditional methods to acquire hand-eye coordination skills are typically conducted through one-to-one instruction where trainees must wear protective helmets and conduct several tests. This approach is inefficient as the harmful light emitted from the electric arc impedes the close monitoring of the process; Practitioners can only observe a small bright spot. To tackle these problems, recent training approaches have leveraged virtual reality to safely simulate the process and visualize the geometry of the workpieces. However, the synthetic nature of these types of simulation platforms reduces their effectiveness as they fail to comprise actual welding interactions with the environment, which hinders the trainees' learning process. To provide users with a real welding experience, we have developed a new multi-sensor extended reality platform for arc welding training. Our system is composed of: (1) An HDR camera, monitoring the real welding spot in real-time; (2) A depth sensor, capturing the 3D geometry of the scene; and (3) A head-mounted VR display, visualizing the process safely. Our innovative platform provides users with a "bot trainer", virtual cues of the seam geometry, automatic spot tracking, and performance scores. To validate the platform's feasibility, we conduct extensive experiments with several welding training tasks. We show that compared with the traditional training practice and recent virtual reality approaches, our automated multi-sensor method achieves better performances in terms of accuracy, learning curve, and effectiveness.