Yanhang Li

Zhichao Fan, Yanhang Li, Zexin Zhuang

Forced chain-of-thought (CoT) is widely assumed to make vision-language models more reliable on video question answering. We propose a small three-probe evaluation recipe to test that assumption: paired accuracy across direct, CoT, answer-first, and no-video conditions; a counterfactual video-swap diagnostic over the CoT chains; and a four-rung visual-degradation ladder. Each probe is reported under both a strict and a permissive regex scorer, with multiplicity correction over a manuscript-declared primary family. Applied to Qwen2.5-VL on Video-MME subsets, the recipe returns a two-part finding. The CoT chains are strongly video-conditioned: swapping the input video collapses chain overlap and flips most final letters, the opposite of what a "boilerplate-chain" null would predict. Yet on the same data, forced CoT does not improve MCQ accuracy, and on the smaller 7B model it produces a small but statistically supported drop under a post-hoc primary scorer choice. We do not claim this generalizes beyond the Qwen2.5-VL / Video-MME instantiation; the raw responses and a single recomputation script will be released with the supplementary material so every number can be re-derived.

Zexin Zhuang, Yanhang Li, Zhichao Fan

This is a planning-method note with an unpaired pilot audit. We adapt the classical paired-binary sample-size calculation (Miettinen, 1968) to quantization benchmarks, giving a conservative minimum detectable effect (MDE) bound $δ^{*} \le (z_{1-α/2}+z_{1-β})\sqrt{ρ_d/m}$ in the paired item count $m$ and the FP16-NF4 disagreement rate $ρ_d$. The bound turns "how reliable is my quantization claim?" into a one-line budget a benchmark designer can commit to before running. We illustrate the bound on four models and four benchmarks ($k=5$ splits of $n=100$), and add a parallel MMLU prompt-template study to put the bound's quantization-noise scale alongside the prompt-noise scale. Assuming $ρ_d=0.10$ (an unmeasured planning value), all observed NF4-FP16 deltas fall below the implied MDE, and most cross-split SDs lie within $\pm 1.5$ pp of the binomial reference $\sqrt{p(1-p)/n}$, so much of the variance reported as "benchmark unreliability" on $n=100$ subsamples is binomial sampling noise. The single borderline cell (OPT-WinoGrande, $|Δ|=3.2$ pp) is below the implied MDE at $ρ_d=0.10$ but above it at $ρ_d=0.05$, illustrating the planning trade-off the bound makes explicit. On MMLU, prompt-template ranges of 2-10 pp meet or exceed the largest observed quantization delta (3.2 pp), so a quantization audit that does not first fix the prompt template absorbs template variance into its noise floor. We complement the bound with a five-line pre-registration template.

Yanhang Li, Zhichao Fan, Zexin Zhuang

Evaluations of unlearning on reasoning models sometimes show a bypass pattern. The answer side looks unlearned, but the model's own thinking trace keeps emitting the forgotten content, and the gap is taken as evidence that the weights still remember. We audit this reading on DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-7B with LoRA-memorized fictional authors and NPO unlearning, conditioned on a six-token canary head. On one seed, swapping the thinking trace for a short non-canary prefill on the same weights drops the answer rate by as much as the bypass gap itself, whether the prefill mimics the training template or not. On a second seed the bypass gap shrinks rather than vanishing, and the prefill swap reverses direction and brings the answer rate to ceiling. A positive parser-split bypass gap thus does not by itself identify hidden weight-level memorization, and does not rule it out either. On a different distillate the same metric flips sign because the parser cannot find the closing tag. We recommend a decode-time template swap as a cheap sanity check alongside the canonical audit.