Haoxian Chen

Haoxian Chen, Henry Lam

Bayesian Optimization is a popular approach for optimizing expensive black-box functions. Its key idea is to use a surrogate model to approximate the objective and, importantly, quantify the associated uncertainty that allows a sequential search of query points that balance exploitation-exploration. Gaussian process (GP) has been a primary candidate for the surrogate model, thanks to its Bayesian-principled uncertainty quantification power and modeling flexibility. However, its challenges have also spurred an array of alternatives whose convergence properties could be more opaque. Motivated by these, we study in this paper an axiomatic framework that elicits the minimal requirements to guarantee black-box optimization convergence that could apply beyond GP-based methods. Moreover, we leverage the design freedom in our framework, which we call Pseudo-Bayesian Optimization, to construct empirically superior algorithms. In particular, we show how using simple local regression, and a suitable "randomized prior" construction to quantify uncertainty, not only guarantees convergence but also consistently outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks in examples ranging from high-dimensional synthetic experiments to realistic hyperparameter tuning and robotic applications.

Fengpei Li, Haoxian Chen, Jiahe Lin et al.

For many complex simulation tasks spanning areas such as healthcare, engineering, and finance, Monte Carlo (MC) methods are invaluable due to their unbiased estimates and precise error quantification. Nevertheless, Monte Carlo simulations often become computationally prohibitive, especially for nested, multi-level, or path-dependent evaluations lacking effective variance reduction techniques. While machine learning (ML) surrogates appear as natural alternatives, naive replacements typically introduce unquantifiable biases. We address this challenge by introducing Prediction-Enhanced Monte Carlo (PEMC), a framework that leverages modern ML models as learned predictors, using cheap and parallelizable simulation as features, to output unbiased evaluation with reduced variance and runtime. PEMC can also be viewed as a "modernized" view of control variates, where we consider the overall computation-cost-aware variance reduction instead of per-replication reduction, while bypassing the closed-form mean function requirement and maintaining the advantageous unbiasedness and uncertainty quantifiability of Monte Carlo. We illustrate PEMC's broader efficacy and versatility through three examples: first, equity derivatives such as variance swaps under stochastic local volatility models; second, interest rate derivatives such as swaption pricing under the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) interest-rate model. Finally, we showcase PEMC in a socially significant context - ambulance dispatch and hospital load balancing - where accurate mortality rate estimates are key for ethically sensitive decision-making. Across these diverse scenarios, PEMC consistently reduces variance while preserving unbiasedness, highlighting its potential as a powerful enhancement to standard Monte Carlo baselines.

Behnaz Arzani, Kevin Hsieh, Haoxian Chen

Automated machine learning (AutoML) systems aim to enable training machine learning (ML) models for non-ML experts. A shortcoming of these systems is that when they fail to produce a model with high accuracy, the user has no path to improve the model other than hiring a data scientist or learning ML -- this defeats the purpose of AutoML and limits its adoption. We introduce an interpretable data feedback solution for AutoML. Our solution suggests new data points for the user to label (without requiring a pool of unlabeled data) to improve the model's accuracy. Our solution analyzes how features influence the prediction among all ML models in an AutoML ensemble, and we suggest more data samples from feature ranges that have high variance in such analysis. Our evaluation shows that our solution can improve the accuracy of AutoML by 7-8% and significantly outperforms popular active learning solutions in data efficiency, all the while providing the added benefit of being interpretable.