Hao Duong Le

Hao Duong Le, Xin Xia, Zhang Chen

Causal discovery aims to identify causal relationships between variables and is a critical research area in machine learning. Traditional methods focus on statistical or machine learning algorithms to uncover causal links from structured data, often overlooking the valuable contextual information provided by metadata. Large language models (LLMs) have shown promise in creating unified causal discovery frameworks by incorporating both structured data and metadata. However, their potential in multi-agent settings remains largely unexplored. To address this gap, we introduce the Multi-Agent Causal Discovery Framework (MAC), which consists of two key modules: the Debate-Coding Module (DCM) and the Meta-Debate Module (MDM). The DCM begins with a multi-agent debating and coding process, where agents use both structured data and metadata to collaboratively select the most suitable statistical causal discovery (SCD) method. The selected SCD is then applied to the structured data to generate an initial causal graph. This causal graph is transformed into causal metadata through the Meta Fusion mechanism. With all the metadata, MDM then refines the causal structure by leveraging a multi-agent debating framework. Extensive experiments across five datasets demonstrate that MAC outperforms both traditional statistical causal discovery methods and existing LLM-based approaches, achieving state-of-the-art performance.

Tian Lan, Hao Duong Le, Jinbo Li et al.

Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) is a critical task, but developing models that generalize to unseen data in a zero-shot manner remains a major challenge. Prevailing foundation models for TSAD predominantly rely on reconstruction-based objectives, which suffer from a fundamental objective mismatch: they struggle to identify subtle anomalies while often misinterpreting complex normal patterns, leading to high rates of false negatives and positives. To overcome these limitations, we introduce \texttt{TimeRCD}, a novel foundation model for TSAD built upon a new pre-training paradigm: Relative Context Discrepancy (RCD). Instead of learning to reconstruct inputs, \texttt{TimeRCD} is explicitly trained to identify anomalies by detecting significant discrepancies between adjacent time windows. This relational approach, implemented with a standard Transformer architecture, enables the model to capture contextual shifts indicative of anomalies that reconstruction-based methods often miss. To facilitate this paradigm, we develop a large-scale, diverse synthetic corpus with token-level anomaly labels, providing the rich supervisory signal necessary for effective pre-training. Extensive experiments demonstrate that \texttt{TimeRCD} significantly outperforms existing general-purpose and anomaly-specific foundation models in zero-shot TSAD across diverse datasets. Our results validate the superiority of the RCD paradigm and establish a new, effective path toward building robust and generalizable foundation models for time series anomaly detection.

Tian Lan, Hao Duong Le, Jinbo Li et al.

Time-series anomaly detection (TSAD) increasingly demands explanations that articulate not only if an anomaly occurred, but also what pattern it exhibits and why it is anomalous. Leveraging the impressive explanatory capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), recent works have attempted to treat time series as text for explainable TSAD. However, this approach faces a fundamental challenge: LLMs operate on discrete tokens and struggle to directly process long, continuous signals. Consequently, naive time-to-text serialization suffers from a lack of contextual grounding and representation alignment between the two modalities. To address this gap, we introduce AXIS, a framework that conditions a frozen LLM for nuanced time-series understanding. Instead of direct serialization, AXIS enriches the LLM's input with three complementary hints derived from the series: (i) a symbolic numeric hint for numerical grounding, (ii) a context-integrated, step-aligned hint distilled from a pretrained time-series encoder to capture fine-grained dynamics, and (iii) a task-prior hint that encodes global anomaly characteristics. Furthermore, to facilitate robust evaluation of explainability, we introduce a new benchmark featuring multi-format questions and rationales that supervise contextual grounding and pattern-level semantics. Extensive experiments, including both LLM-based and human evaluations, demonstrate that AXIS yields explanations of significantly higher quality and achieves competitive detection accuracy compared to general-purpose LLMs, specialized time-series LLMs, and time-series Vision Language Models.