Ramsés J. Sánchez

César Ojeda, Niklas Hartung, Wilhelm Huisinga et al.

We introduce Prior-Fitted Functional Flows, a generative foundation model for pharmacokinetics that enables zero-shot population synthesis and individual forecasting without manual parameter tuning. We learn functional vector fields, explicitly conditioned on the sparse, irregular data of an entire study population. This enables the generation of coherent virtual cohorts as well as forecasting of partially observed patient trajectories with calibrated uncertainty. We construct a new open-access literature corpus to inform our priors, and demonstrate state-of-the-art predictive accuracy on extensive real-world datasets.

Kostadin Cvejoski, Ramsés J. Sánchez, César Ojeda

Large pre-trained language models (LPLM) have shown spectacular success when fine-tuned on downstream supervised tasks. Yet, it is known that their performance can drastically drop when there is a distribution shift between the data used during training and that used at inference time. In this paper we focus on data distributions that naturally change over time and introduce four new REDDIT datasets, namely the WALLSTREETBETS, ASKSCIENCE, THE DONALD, and POLITICS sub-reddits. First, we empirically demonstrate that LPLM can display average performance drops of about 88% (in the best case!) when predicting the popularity of future posts from sub-reddits whose topic distribution changes with time. We then introduce a simple methodology that leverages neural variational dynamic topic models and attention mechanisms to infer temporal language model representations for regression tasks. Our models display performance drops of only about 40% in the worst cases (2% in the best ones) when predicting the popularity of future posts, while using only about 7% of the total number of parameters of LPLM and providing interpretable representations that offer insight into real-world events, like the GameStop short squeeze of 2021

Kostadin Cvejoski, Ramsés J. Sánchez, César Ojeda

Topic models and all their variants analyse text by learning meaningful representations through word co-occurrences. As pointed out by Williamson et al. (2010), such models implicitly assume that the probability of a topic to be active and its proportion within each document are positively correlated. This correlation can be strongly detrimental in the case of documents created over time, simply because recent documents are likely better described by new and hence rare topics. In this work we leverage recent advances in neural variational inference and present an alternative neural approach to the dynamic Focused Topic Model. Indeed, we develop a neural model for topic evolution which exploits sequences of Bernoulli random variables in order to track the appearances of topics, thereby decoupling their activities from their proportions. We evaluate our model on three different datasets (the UN general debates, the collection of NeurIPS papers, and the ACL Anthology dataset) and show that it (i) outperforms state-of-the-art topic models in generalization tasks and (ii) performs comparably to them on prediction tasks, while employing roughly the same number of parameters, and converging about two times faster. Source code to reproduce our experiments is available online.

Ramsés J. Sánchez, Lukas Conrads, Pascal Welke et al.

Large, pretrained language models infer powerful representations that encode rich semantic and syntactic content, albeit implicitly. In this work we introduce a novel neural language model that enforces, via inductive biases, explicit relational structures which allow for compositionality onto the output representations of pretrained language models. Specifically, the model encodes sentences into sequences of symbols (composed representations), which correspond to the nodes visited by biased random walkers on a global latent graph, and infers the posterior distribution of the latter. We first demonstrate that the model is able to uncover ground-truth graphs from artificially generated datasets of random token sequences. Next, we leverage pretrained BERT and GPT-2 language models as encoder and decoder, respectively, to infer networks of symbols (schemata) from natural language datasets. Our experiments show that (i) the inferred symbols can be interpreted as encoding different aspects of language, as e.g. topics or sentiments, and that (ii) GPT-like models can effectively be conditioned on symbolic representations. Finally, we explore training autoregressive, random walk ``reasoning" models on schema networks inferred from commonsense knowledge databases, and using the sampled paths to enhance the performance of pretrained language models on commonsense If-Then reasoning tasks.

Patrick Seifner, Kostadin Cvejoski, Antonia Körner et al.

Dynamical systems governed by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) serve as models for a vast number of natural and social phenomena. In this work, we offer a fresh perspective on the classical problem of imputing missing time series data, whose underlying dynamics are assumed to be determined by ODEs. Specifically, we revisit ideas from amortized inference and neural operators, and propose a novel supervised learning framework for zero-shot time series imputation, through parametric functions satisfying some (hidden) ODEs. Our proposal consists of two components. First, a broad probability distribution over the space of ODE solutions, observation times and noise mechanisms, with which we generate a large, synthetic dataset of (hidden) ODE solutions, along with their noisy and sparse observations. Second, a neural recognition model that is trained offline, to map the generated time series onto the spaces of initial conditions and time derivatives of the (hidden) ODE solutions, which we then integrate to impute the missing data. We empirically demonstrate that one and the same (pretrained) recognition model can perform zero-shot imputation across 63 distinct time series with missing values, each sampled from widely different dynamical systems. Likewise, we demonstrate that it can perform zero-shot imputation of missing high-dimensional data in 10 vastly different settings, spanning human motion, air quality, traffic and electricity studies, as well as Navier-Stokes simulations -- without requiring any fine-tuning. What is more, our proposal often outperforms state-of-the-art methods, which are trained on the target datasets. Our pretrained model, repository and tutorials are available online.

David Berghaus, Patrick Seifner, Kostadin Cvejoski et al.

Modeling event sequences of multiple event types with marked temporal point processes (MTPPs) provides a principled way to uncover governing dynamical rules and predict future events. Current neural network approaches to MTPP inference rely on training separate, specialized models for each target system. We pursue a radically different approach: drawing on amortized inference and in-context learning, we pretrain a deep neural network to infer, in-context, the conditional intensity functions of event histories from a context defined by sets of event sequences. Pretraining is performed on a large synthetic dataset of MTPPs sampled from a broad distribution of Hawkes processes. Once pretrained, our Foundation Inference Model for Point Processes (FIM-PP) can estimate MTPPs from real-world data without any additional training, or be rapidly finetuned to target systems. Experiments show that this amortized approach matches the performance of specialized models on next-event prediction across common benchmark datasets. Our pretrained model, repository and tutorials will soon be available online

César Ojeda, Kostadin Cvejosky, Ramsés J. Sánchez et al.

Service system dynamics occur at the interplay between customer behaviour and a service provider's response. This kind of dynamics can effectively be modeled within the framework of queuing theory where customers' arrivals are described by point process models. However, these approaches are limited by parametric assumptions as to, for example, inter-event time distributions. In this paper, we address these limitations and propose a novel, deep neural network solution to the queuing problem. Our solution combines a recurrent neural network that models the arrival process with a recurrent generative adversarial network which models the service time distribution. We evaluate our methodology on various empirical datasets ranging from internet services (Blockchain, GitHub, Stackoverflow) to mobility service systems (New York taxi cab).