Christian S. Jensen

Zezhi Shao, Zhao Zhang, Wei Wei et al. · microsoft-research

We all depend on mobility, and vehicular transportation affects the daily lives of most of us. Thus, the ability to forecast the state of traffic in a road network is an important functionality and a challenging task. Traffic data is often obtained from sensors deployed in a road network. Recent proposals on spatial-temporal graph neural networks have achieved great progress at modeling complex spatial-temporal correlations in traffic data, by modeling traffic data as a diffusion process. However, intuitively, traffic data encompasses two different kinds of hidden time series signals, namely the diffusion signals and inherent signals. Unfortunately, nearly all previous works coarsely consider traffic signals entirely as the outcome of the diffusion, while neglecting the inherent signals, which impacts model performance negatively. To improve modeling performance, we propose a novel Decoupled Spatial-Temporal Framework (DSTF) that separates the diffusion and inherent traffic information in a data-driven manner, which encompasses a unique estimation gate and a residual decomposition mechanism. The separated signals can be handled subsequently by the diffusion and inherent modules separately. Further, we propose an instantiation of DSTF, Decoupled Dynamic Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Network (D2STGNN), that captures spatial-temporal correlations and also features a dynamic graph learning module that targets the learning of the dynamic characteristics of traffic networks. Extensive experiments with four real-world traffic datasets demonstrate that the framework is capable of advancing the state-of-the-art.

Zezhi Shao, Fei Wang, Yongjun Xu et al.

Multivariate Time Series (MTS) analysis is crucial to understanding and managing complex systems, such as traffic and energy systems, and a variety of approaches to MTS forecasting have been proposed recently. However, we often observe inconsistent or seemingly contradictory performance findings across different studies. This hinders our understanding of the merits of different approaches and slows down progress. We address the need for means of assessing MTS forecasting proposals reliably and fairly, in turn enabling better exploitation of MTS as seen in different applications. Specifically, we first propose BasicTS+, a benchmark designed to enable fair, comprehensive, and reproducible comparison of MTS forecasting solutions. BasicTS+ establishes a unified training pipeline and reasonable settings, enabling an unbiased evaluation. Second, we identify the heterogeneity across different MTS as an important consideration and enable classification of MTS based on their temporal and spatial characteristics. Disregarding this heterogeneity is a prime reason for difficulties in selecting the most promising technical directions. Third, we apply BasicTS+ along with rich datasets to assess the capabilities of more than 45 MTS forecasting solutions. This provides readers with an overall picture of the cutting-edge research on MTS forecasting. The code can be accessed at https://github.com/GestaltCogTeam/BasicTS.

David Campos, Miao Zhang, Bin Yang et al.

Due to the sweeping digitalization of processes, increasingly vast amounts of time series data are being produced. Accurate classification of such time series facilitates decision making in multiple domains. State-of-the-art classification accuracy is often achieved by ensemble learning where results are synthesized from multiple base models. This characteristic implies that ensemble learning needs substantial computing resources, preventing their use in resource-limited environments, such as in edge devices. To extend the applicability of ensemble learning, we propose the LightTS framework that compresses large ensembles into lightweight models while ensuring competitive accuracy. First, we propose adaptive ensemble distillation that assigns adaptive weights to different base models such that their varying classification capabilities contribute purposefully to the training of the lightweight model. Second, we propose means of identifying Pareto optimal settings w.r.t. model accuracy and model size, thus enabling users with a space budget to select the most accurate lightweight model. We report on experiments using 128 real-world time series sets and different types of base models that justify key decisions in the design of LightTS and provide evidence that LightTS is able to outperform competitors.

Tung Kieu, Bin Yang, Chenjuan Guo et al.

Time series data occurs widely, and outlier detection is a fundamental problem in data mining, which has numerous applications. Existing autoencoder-based approaches deliver state-of-the-art performance on challenging real-world data but are vulnerable to outliers and exhibit low explainability. To address these two limitations, we propose robust and explainable unsupervised autoencoder frameworks that decompose an input time series into a clean time series and an outlier time series using autoencoders. Improved explainability is achieved because clean time series are better explained with easy-to-understand patterns such as trends and periodicities. We provide insight into this by means of a post-hoc explainability analysis and empirical studies. In addition, since outliers are separated from clean time series iteratively, our approach offers improved robustness to outliers, which in turn improves accuracy. We evaluate our approach on five real-world datasets and report improvements over the state-of-the-art approaches in terms of robustness and explainability. This is an extended version of "Robust and Explainable Autoencoders for Unsupervised Time Series Outlier Detection", to appear in IEEE ICDE 2022.

Sean Bin Yang, Jilin Hu, Chenjuan Guo et al.

Movement paths are used widely in intelligent transportation and smart city applications. To serve such applications, path representation learning aims to provide compact representations of paths that enable efficient and accurate operations when used for different downstream tasks such as path ranking and travel cost estimation. In many cases, it is attractive that the path representation learning is lightweight and scalable; in resource-limited environments and under green computing limitations, it is essential. Yet, existing path representation learning studies focus on accuracy and pay at most secondary attention to resource consumption and scalability. We propose a lightweight and scalable path representation learning framework, termed LightPath, that aims to reduce resource consumption and achieve scalability without affecting accuracy, thus enabling broader applicability. More specifically, we first propose a sparse auto-encoder that ensures that the framework achieves good scalability with respect to path length. Next, we propose a relational reasoning framework to enable faster training of more robust sparse path encoders. We also propose global-local knowledge distillation to further reduce the size and improve the performance of sparse path encoders. Finally, we report extensive experiments on two real-world datasets to offer insight into the efficiency, scalability, and effectiveness of the proposed framework.

Yan Lin, Huaiyu Wan, Jilin Hu et al.

Given an origin (O), a destination (D), and a departure time (T), an Origin-Destination (OD) travel time oracle~(ODT-Oracle) returns an estimate of the time it takes to travel from O to D when departing at T. ODT-Oracles serve important purposes in map-based services. To enable the construction of such oracles, we provide a travel-time estimation (TTE) solution that leverages historical trajectories to estimate time-varying travel times for OD pairs. The problem is complicated by the fact that multiple historical trajectories with different travel times may connect an OD pair, while trajectories may vary from one another. To solve the problem, it is crucial to remove outlier trajectories when doing travel time estimation for future queries. We propose a novel, two-stage framework called Diffusion-based Origin-destination Travel Time Estimation (DOT), that solves the problem. First, DOT employs a conditioned Pixelated Trajectories (PiT) denoiser that enables building a diffusion-based PiT inference process by learning correlations between OD pairs and historical trajectories. Specifically, given an OD pair and a departure time, we aim to infer a PiT. Next, DOT encompasses a Masked Vision Transformer~(MViT) that effectively and efficiently estimates a travel time based on the inferred PiT. We report on extensive experiments on two real-world datasets that offer evidence that DOT is capable of outperforming baseline methods in terms of accuracy, scalability, and explainability.

Xinle Wu, Dalin Zhang, Miao Zhang et al.

Sensors in cyber-physical systems often capture interconnected processes and thus emit correlated time series (CTS), the forecasting of which enables important applications. The key to successful CTS forecasting is to uncover the temporal dynamics of time series and the spatial correlations among time series. Deep learning-based solutions exhibit impressive performance at discerning these aspects. In particular, automated CTS forecasting, where the design of an optimal deep learning architecture is automated, enables forecasting accuracy that surpasses what has been achieved by manual approaches. However, automated CTS solutions remain in their infancy and are only able to find optimal architectures for predefined hyperparameters and scale poorly to large-scale CTS. To overcome these limitations, we propose SEARCH, a joint, scalable framework, to automatically devise effective CTS forecasting models. Specifically, we encode each candidate architecture and accompanying hyperparameters into a joint graph representation. We introduce an efficient Architecture-Hyperparameter Comparator (AHC) to rank all architecture-hyperparameter pairs, and we then further evaluate the top-ranked pairs to select a final result. Extensive experiments on six benchmark datasets demonstrate that SEARCH not only eliminates manual efforts but also is capable of better performance than manually designed and existing automatically designed CTS models. In addition, it shows excellent scalability to large CTS.

Yumeng Song, Yu Gu, Tianyi Li et al.

Hypergraphs can model higher-order relationships among data objects that are found in applications such as social networks and bioinformatics. However, recent studies on hypergraph learning that extend graph convolutional networks to hypergraphs cannot learn effectively from features of unlabeled data. To such learning, we propose a contrastive hypergraph neural network, CHGNN, that exploits self-supervised contrastive learning techniques to learn from labeled and unlabeled data. First, CHGNN includes an adaptive hypergraph view generator that adopts an auto-augmentation strategy and learns a perturbed probability distribution of minimal sufficient views. Second, CHGNN encompasses an improved hypergraph encoder that considers hyperedge homogeneity to fuse information effectively. Third, CHGNN is equipped with a joint loss function that combines a similarity loss for the view generator, a node classification loss, and a hyperedge homogeneity loss to inject supervision signals. It also includes basic and cross-validation contrastive losses, associated with an enhanced contrastive loss training process. Experimental results on nine real datasets offer insight into the effectiveness of CHGNN, showing that it outperforms 13 competitors in terms of classification accuracy consistently.

Yan Lin, Zeyu Zhou, Yicheng Liu et al.

Spatiotemporal trajectories are sequences of timestamped locations, which enable a variety of analyses that in turn enable important real-world applications. It is common to map trajectories to vectors, called embeddings, before subsequent analyses. Thus, the qualities of embeddings are very important. Methods for pre-training embeddings, which leverage unlabeled trajectories for training universal embeddings, have shown promising applicability across different tasks, thus attracting considerable interest. However, research progress on this topic faces two key challenges: a lack of a comprehensive overview of existing methods, resulting in several related methods not being well-recognized, and the absence of a unified pipeline, complicating the development of new methods and the analysis of methods. We present UniTE, a survey and a unified pipeline for this domain. In doing so, we present a comprehensive list of existing methods for pre-training trajectory embeddings, which includes methods that either explicitly or implicitly employ pre-training techniques. Further, we present a unified and modular pipeline with publicly available underlying code, simplifying the process of constructing and evaluating methods for pre-training trajectory embeddings. Additionally, we contribute a selection of experimental results using the proposed pipeline on real-world datasets. Implementation of the pipeline is publicly available at https://github.com/Logan-Lin/UniTE.

David Campos, Bin Yang, Tung Kieu et al.

The ongoing digitization has led to a proliferation of time-series data streams that monitor a variety of processes, from which valuable insights may be obtained. Further, the emergence of successful foundational language models begs the question of whether it is possible to achieve time-series models with the foundational properties of handling multiple tasks, while being sufficiently lightweight to allow real-time data stream processing. Existing foundational time-series models are often large and only effective in offline settings without stringent time and computational constraints, and where repeated model calibration is not needed. However, when applied to data streams, these models are ineffective due to their size and lack of support for continual calibration, which compromise their ability to deliver accurate real-time responses, their durability, and their deployability in hardware-limited settings. We propose TimeBlocks to enable versatile time-series processing by facilitating the efficient building of lightweight models suitable for multiple tasks under variable conditions. In particular, the method maintains a pool of interchangeable and modular model blocks that can be used to construct new time-series models. When presented with specific time-series data, a routing strategy iteratively selects the most suitable blocks to construct a lightweight and accurate model for the data. We equip TimeBlocks with a method called StreamCore to build a representative small subset of the data stream, which preserves a guaranteed approximation of the stream over time, enabling continual model calibration. An experimental study on multiple data sets and covering multiple tasks shows that TimeBlocks enables to build models capable of outperforming existing baselines.

Dalin Zhang, Kaixuan Chen, Yan Zhao et al.

Deep learning technologies have demonstrated remarkable effectiveness in a wide range of tasks, and deep learning holds the potential to advance a multitude of applications, including in edge computing, where deep models are deployed on edge devices to enable instant data processing and response. A key challenge is that while the application of deep models often incurs substantial memory and computational costs, edge devices typically offer only very limited storage and computational capabilities that may vary substantially across devices. These characteristics make it difficult to build deep learning solutions that unleash the potential of edge devices while complying with their constraints. A promising approach to addressing this challenge is to automate the design of effective deep learning models that are lightweight, require only a little storage, and incur only low computational overheads. This survey offers comprehensive coverage of studies of design automation techniques for deep learning models targeting edge computing. It offers an overview and comparison of key metrics that are used commonly to quantify the proficiency of models in terms of effectiveness, lightness, and computational costs. The survey then proceeds to cover three categories of the state-of-the-art of deep model design automation techniques: automated neural architecture search, automated model compression, and joint automated design and compression. Finally, the survey covers open issues and directions for future research.

Yan Lin, Huaiyu Wan, Shengnan Guo et al.

Spatio-temporal trajectories provide valuable information about movement and travel behavior, enabling various downstream tasks that in turn power real-world applications. Learning trajectory embeddings can improve task performance but may incur high computational costs and face limited training data availability. Pre-training learns generic embeddings by means of specially constructed pretext tasks that enable learning from unlabeled data. Existing pre-training methods face (i) difficulties in learning general embeddings due to biases towards certain downstream tasks incurred by the pretext tasks, (ii) limitations in capturing both travel semantics and spatio-temporal correlations, and (iii) the complexity of long, irregularly sampled trajectories. To tackle these challenges, we propose Maximum Multi-view Trajectory Entropy Coding (MMTEC) for learning general and comprehensive trajectory embeddings. We introduce a pretext task that reduces biases in pre-trained trajectory embeddings, yielding embeddings that are useful for a wide variety of downstream tasks. We also propose an attention-based discrete encoder and a NeuralCDE-based continuous encoder that extract and represent travel behavior and continuous spatio-temporal correlations from trajectories in embeddings, respectively. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets and three downstream tasks offer insight into the design properties of our proposal and indicate that it is capable of outperforming existing trajectory embedding methods.

Yan Zhao, Liwei Deng, Xuanhao Chen et al.

The continued digitization of societal processes translates into a proliferation of time series data that cover applications such as fraud detection, intrusion detection, and energy management, where anomaly detection is often essential to enable reliability and safety. Many recent studies target anomaly detection for time series data. Indeed, area of time series anomaly detection is characterized by diverse data, methods, and evaluation strategies, and comparisons in existing studies consider only part of this diversity, which makes it difficult to select the best method for a particular problem setting. To address this shortcoming, we introduce taxonomies for data, methods, and evaluation strategies, provide a comprehensive overview of unsupervised time series anomaly detection using the taxonomies, and systematically evaluate and compare state-of-the-art traditional as well as deep learning techniques. In the empirical study using nine publicly available datasets, we apply the most commonly-used performance evaluation metrics to typical methods under a fair implementation standard. Based on the structuring offered by the taxonomies, we report on empirical studies and provide guidelines, in the form of comparative tables, for choosing the methods most suitable for particular application settings. Finally, we propose research directions for this dynamic field.

Yunyao Cheng, Chenjuan Guo, Kaixuan Chen et al.

Accurate time series forecasting is crucial for optimizing resource allocation, industrial production, and urban management, particularly with the growth of cyber-physical and IoT systems. However, limited training sample availability in fields like physics and biology poses significant challenges. Existing models struggle to capture long-term dependencies and to model diverse meta-knowledge explicitly in few-shot scenarios. To address these issues, we propose MetaGP, a meta-learning-based Gaussian process latent variable model that uses a Gaussian process kernel function to capture long-term dependencies and to maintain strong correlations in time series. We also introduce Kernel Association Search (KAS) as a novel meta-learning component to explicitly model meta-knowledge, thereby enhancing both interpretability and prediction accuracy. We study MetaGP on simulated and real-world few-shot datasets, showing that it is capable of state-of-the-art prediction accuracy. We also find that MetaGP can capture long-term dependencies and can model meta-knowledge, thereby providing valuable insights into complex time series patterns.

Zhichen Lai, Dalin Zhang, Huan Li et al.

Correlated time series (CTS) forecasting plays an essential role in many practical applications, such as traffic management and server load control. Many deep learning models have been proposed to improve the accuracy of CTS forecasting. However, while models have become increasingly complex and computationally intensive, they struggle to improve accuracy. Pursuing a different direction, this study aims instead to enable much more efficient, lightweight models that preserve accuracy while being able to be deployed on resource-constrained devices. To achieve this goal, we characterize popular CTS forecasting models and yield two observations that indicate directions for lightweight CTS forecasting. On this basis, we propose the LightCTS framework that adopts plain stacking of temporal and spatial operators instead of alternate stacking that is much more computationally expensive. Moreover, LightCTS features light temporal and spatial operator modules, called L-TCN and GL-Former, that offer improved computational efficiency without compromising their feature extraction capabilities. LightCTS also encompasses a last-shot compression scheme to reduce redundant temporal features and speed up subsequent computations. Experiments with single-step and multi-step forecasting benchmark datasets show that LightCTS is capable of nearly state-of-the-art accuracy at much reduced computational and storage overheads.

Junkai Lu, Peng Chen, Xingjian Wu et al.

Time series reasoning demands both the perception of complex dynamics and logical depth. However, existing LLM-based approaches exhibit two limitations: they often treat time series merely as text or images, failing to capture the patterns like trends and seasonalities needed to answer specific questions; and when trained on a mix of simple and complex tasks, simpler objectives often dominate the learning process, hindering the development of deep reasoning capabilities. To address these limitations, we propose the Pattern-Aware Alignment and Balanced Reasoning model (PATRA), introducing a pattern-aware mechanism that extracts trend and seasonality patterns from time series to achieve deep alignment. Furthermore, we design a task-aware balanced reward to harmonize learning across tasks of varying difficulty, incentivizing the generation of coherent Chains of Thought. Extensive experiments show that PATRA outperforms strong baselines across diverse Time Series Question Answering (TSQA) tasks, demonstrating superior cross-modal understanding and reasoning capability.

Xingjian Wu, Junkai Lu, Zhengyu Li et al.

Time series data widely exist in real-world cyber-physical systems. Though analyzing and interpreting them contributes to significant values, e.g, disaster prediction and financial risk control, current workflows mainly rely on human data scientists, which requires significant labor costs and lacks automation. To tackle this, we introduce TimeART, a framework fusing the analytical capability of strong out-of-the-box tools and the reasoning capability of Large Language Models (LLMs), which serves as a fully agentic data scientist for Time Series Question Answering (TSQA). To teach the LLM-based Time Series Reasoning Models (TSRMs) strategic tool-use, we also collect a 100k expert trajectory corpus called TimeToolBench. To enhance TSRMs' generalization capability, we then devise a four-stage training strategy, which boosts TSRMs through learning from their own early experiences and self-reflections. Experimentally, we train an 8B TSRM on TimeToolBench and equip it with the TimeART framework, and it achieves consistent state-of-the-art performance on multiple TSQA tasks, which pioneers a novel approach towards agentic time series reasoning.

Xiangfei Qiu, Jilin Hu, Lekui Zhou et al.

Time series are generated in diverse domains such as economic, traffic, health, and energy, where forecasting of future values has numerous important applications. Not surprisingly, many forecasting methods are being proposed. To ensure progress, it is essential to be able to study and compare such methods empirically in a comprehensive and reliable manner. To achieve this, we propose TFB, an automated benchmark for Time Series Forecasting (TSF) methods. TFB advances the state-of-the-art by addressing shortcomings related to datasets, comparison methods, and evaluation pipelines: 1) insufficient coverage of data domains, 2) stereotype bias against traditional methods, and 3) inconsistent and inflexible pipelines. To achieve better domain coverage, we include datasets from 10 different domains: traffic, electricity, energy, the environment, nature, economic, stock markets, banking, health, and the web. We also provide a time series characterization to ensure that the selected datasets are comprehensive. To remove biases against some methods, we include a diverse range of methods, including statistical learning, machine learning, and deep learning methods, and we also support a variety of evaluation strategies and metrics to ensure a more comprehensive evaluations of different methods. To support the integration of different methods into the benchmark and enable fair comparisons, TFB features a flexible and scalable pipeline that eliminates biases. Next, we employ TFB to perform a thorough evaluation of 21 Univariate Time Series Forecasting (UTSF) methods on 8,068 univariate time series and 14 Multivariate Time Series Forecasting (MTSF) methods on 25 datasets. The benchmark code and data are available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/TFB. We have also launched an online time series leaderboard: https://decisionintelligence.github.io/OpenTS/OpenTS-Bench/.

Hengyu Liu, Tianyi Li, Haoyu Wang et al.

Vessel trajectory data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) is used widely in maritime analytics. Yet, analysis is difficult for non-expert users due to the incompleteness and complexity of AIS data. We present CLEAR, a knowledge-centric vessel trajectory analysis platform that aims to overcome these barriers. By leveraging the reasoning and generative capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), CLEAR transforms raw AIS data into complete, interpretable, and easily explorable vessel trajectories through a Structured Data-derived Knowledge Graph (SD-KG). As part of the demo, participants can configure parameters to automatically download and process AIS data, observe how trajectories are completed and annotated, inspect both raw and imputed segments together with their SD-KG evidence, and interactively explore the SD-KG through a dedicated graph viewer, gaining an intuitive and transparent understanding of vessel movements.

Xiangfei Qiu, Zhe Li, Wanghui Qiu et al.

Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) plays an important role in many domains such as finance, transportation, and healthcare. With the ongoing instrumentation of reality, more time series data will be available, leading also to growing demands for TSAD. While many TSAD methods already exist, new and better methods are still desirable. However, effective progress hinges on the availability of reliable means of evaluating new methods and comparing them with existing methods. We address deficiencies in current evaluation procedures related to datasets and experimental settings and protocols. Specifically, we propose a new time series anomaly detection benchmark, called TAB. First, TAB encompasses 29 public multivariate datasets and 1,635 univariate time series from different domains to facilitate more comprehensive evaluations on diverse datasets. Second, TAB covers a variety of TSAD methods, including Non-learning, Machine learning, Deep learning, LLM-based, and Time-series pre-trained methods. Third, TAB features a unified and automated evaluation pipeline that enables fair and easy evaluation of TSAD methods. Finally, we employ TAB to evaluate existing TSAD methods and report on the outcomes, thereby offering a deeper insight into the performance of these methods. Besides, all datasets and code are available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/TAB.

Xiao Li, Huan Li, Hua Lu et al.

Sensor data streams occur widely in various real-time applications in the context of the Internet of Things (IoT). However, sensor data streams feature missing values due to factors such as sensor failures, communication errors, or depleted batteries. Missing values can compromise the quality of real-time analytics tasks and downstream applications. Existing imputation methods either make strong assumptions about streams or have low efficiency. In this study, we aim to accurately and efficiently impute missing values in data streams that satisfy only general characteristics in order to benefit real-time applications more widely. First, we propose a message propagation imputation network (MPIN) that is able to recover the missing values of data instances in a time window. We give a theoretical analysis of why MPIN is effective. Second, we present a continuous imputation framework that consists of data update and model update mechanisms to enable MPIN to perform continuous imputation both effectively and efficiently. Extensive experiments on multiple real datasets show that MPIN can outperform the existing data imputers by wide margins and that the continuous imputation framework is efficient and accurate.

Qianru Zhang, Lianghao Xia, Xuheng Cai et al.

Graph augmentation with contrastive learning has gained significant attention in the field of recommendation systems due to its ability to learn expressive user representations, even when labeled data is limited. However, directly applying existing GCL models to real-world recommendation environments poses challenges. There are two primary issues to address. Firstly, the lack of consideration for data noise in contrastive learning can result in noisy self-supervised signals, leading to degraded performance. Secondly, many existing GCL approaches rely on graph neural network (GNN) architectures, which can suffer from over-smoothing problems due to non-adaptive message passing. To address these challenges, we propose a principled framework called GraphAug. This framework introduces a robust data augmentor that generates denoised self-supervised signals, enhancing recommender systems. The GraphAug framework incorporates a graph information bottleneck (GIB)-regularized augmentation paradigm, which automatically distills informative self-supervision information and adaptively adjusts contrastive view generation. Through rigorous experimentation on real-world datasets, we thoroughly assessed the performance of our novel GraphAug model. The outcomes consistently unveil its superiority over existing baseline methods. The source code for our model is publicly available at: https://github.com/HKUDS/GraphAug.

Hong-Phuc Phan, Tuan-Anh Vu, Tung Kieu et al.

Unsupervised outlier detection is attractive because it eliminates the need for labeled data. Moreover, forming multi-model ensembles can improve detection robustness. However, composing an ensemble without labeled data is challenging. Naively composed ensembles can suffer from ensemble saturation, where redundant or unreliable detection models degrade performance and incur unnecessary computation. We propose MetaEns, an automatic unsupervised framework for selecting ensembles of outlier detection models. Using labeled meta-datasets, MetaEns learns a model that predicts marginal ensemble gains, estimating the expected improvement from adding a candidate model to a partially constructed ensemble. At test time, this learned signal is combined with a submodular-inspired proxy objective that enforces diminishing returns through diversity-aware discounting and family-level risk regularization, thereby enabling greedy sequential selection with adaptive early stopping. As a result, MetaEns constructs compact, high-quality ensembles without access to ground-truth labels. Experiments on 39 real-world datasets show that MetaEns consistently outperforms state-of-the-art unsupervised selectors and ensemble baselines, achieving higher average precision while using fewer models.

Qianru Zhang, Honggang Wen, Ming Li et al.

Time series forecasting requires architectures that simultaneously achieve three competing objectives: (1) strict temporal causality for reliable predictions, (2) sub-quadratic complexity for practical scalability, and (3) multi-scale pattern recognition for accurate long-horizon forecasting. We introduce AutoHFormer, a hierarchical autoregressive transformer that addresses these challenges through three key innovations: 1) Hierarchical Temporal Modeling: Our architecture decomposes predictions into segment-level blocks processed in parallel, followed by intra-segment sequential refinement. This dual-scale approach maintains temporal coherence while enabling efficient computation. 2) Dynamic Windowed Attention: The attention mechanism employs learnable causal windows with exponential decay, reducing complexity while preserving precise temporal relationships. This design avoids both the anti-causal violations of standard transformers and the sequential bottlenecks of RNN hybrids. 3) Adaptive Temporal Encoding: a novel position encoding system is adopted to capture time patterns at multiple scales. It combines fixed oscillating patterns for short-term variations with learnable decay rates for long-term trends. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that AutoHFormer 10.76X faster training and 6.06X memory reduction compared to PatchTST on PEMS08, while maintaining consistent accuracy across 96-720 step horizons in most of cases. These breakthroughs establish new benchmarks for efficient and precise time series modeling. Implementations of our method and all baselines in hierarchical autoregressive mechanism are available at https://github.com/lizzyhku/Autotime.

Zhichen Lai, Hua Lu, Huan Li et al.

Trajectory similarity computation is fundamental functionality that is used for, e.g., clustering, prediction, and anomaly detection. However, existing learning-based methods exhibit three key limitations: (1) insufficient modeling of trajectory semantics and hierarchy, lacking both movement dynamics extraction and multi-scale structural representation; (2) high computational costs due to point-wise encoding; and (3) use of physically implausible augmentations that distort trajectory semantics. To address these issues, we propose MovSemCL, a movement-semantics contrastive learning framework for trajectory similarity computation. MovSemCL first transforms raw GPS trajectories into movement-semantics features and then segments them into patches. Next, MovSemCL employs intra- and inter-patch attentions to encode local as well as global trajectory patterns, enabling efficient hierarchical representation and reducing computational costs. Moreover, MovSemCL includes a curvature-guided augmentation strategy that preserves informative segments (e.g., turns and intersections) and masks redundant ones, generating physically plausible augmented views. Experiments on real-world datasets show that MovSemCL is capable of outperforming state-of-the-art methods, achieving mean ranks close to the ideal value of 1 at similarity search tasks and improvements by up to 20.3% at heuristic approximation, while reducing inference latency by up to 43.4%.

Hengyu Liu, Tianyi Li, Yuqiang He et al.

Location-tracking data from the Automatic Identification System, much of which is publicly available, plays a key role in a range of maritime safety and monitoring applications. However, the data suffers from missing values that hamper downstream applications. Imputing the missing values is challenging because the values of different heterogeneous attributes are updated at diverse rates, resulting in the occurrence of multi-scale dependencies among attributes. Existing imputation methods that assume similar update rates across attributes are unable to capture and exploit such dependencies, limiting their imputation accuracy. We propose MH-GIN, a Multi-scale Heterogeneous Graph-based Imputation Network that aims improve imputation accuracy by capturing multi-scale dependencies. Specifically, MH-GIN first extracts multi-scale temporal features for each attribute while preserving their intrinsic heterogeneous characteristics. Then, it constructs a multi-scale heterogeneous graph to explicitly model dependencies between heterogeneous attributes to enable more accurate imputation of missing values through graph propagation. Experimental results on two real-world datasets find that MH-GIN is capable of an average 57% reduction in imputation errors compared to state-of-the-art methods, while maintaining computational efficiency. The source code and implementation details of MH-GIN are publicly available https://github.com/hyLiu1994/MH-GIN.

Hao Miao, Yan Zhao, Chenjuan Guo et al.

The widespread deployment of wireless and mobile devices results in a proliferation of spatio-temporal data that is used in applications, e.g., traffic prediction, human mobility mining, and air quality prediction, where spatio-temporal prediction is often essential to enable safety, predictability, or reliability. Many recent proposals that target deep learning for spatio-temporal prediction suffer from so-called catastrophic forgetting, where previously learned knowledge is entirely forgotten when new data arrives. Such proposals may experience deteriorating prediction performance when applied in settings where data streams into the system. To enable spatio-temporal prediction on streaming data, we propose a unified replay-based continuous learning framework. The framework includes a replay buffer of previously learned samples that are fused with training data using a spatio-temporal mixup mechanism in order to preserve historical knowledge effectively, thus avoiding catastrophic forgetting. To enable holistic representation preservation, the framework also integrates a general spatio-temporal autoencoder with a carefully designed spatio-temporal simple siamese (STSimSiam) network that aims to ensure prediction accuracy and avoid holistic feature loss by means of mutual information maximization. The framework further encompasses five spatio-temporal data augmentation methods to enhance the performance of STSimSiam. Extensive experiments on real data offer insight into the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

Hengyu Liu, Tianyi Li, Zhihong Cui et al.

This position paper argues that reliable AI requires infrastructure for human validation of implicit knowledge. AI learns from both explicit knowledge (papers, documentation, structured databases) and implicit knowledge (reasoning patterns, debugging processes, intermediate steps). Implicit knowledge remains unexternalized because documentation cost exceeds perceived value -- yet AI learns from it indiscriminately, acquiring both beneficial patterns and harmful biases. Current reliability methods can only verify explicit knowledge against sources, creating a fundamental gap: the most valuable AI capabilities (reasoning, judgment, intuition) are precisely those we cannot verify. We propose Knowledge Objects (KOs) -- structured artifacts that externalize implicit knowledge into forms humans can inspect, verify, and endorse. KOs transform verification economics: what was previously too costly to verify becomes feasible, enabling accumulated human validation to improve reliability over time.

Xiangfei Qiu, Xiuwen Li, Ruiyang Pang et al.

Time series forecasting has important applications across diverse domains. EasyTime, the system we demonstrate, facilitates easy use of time-series forecasting methods by researchers and practitioners alike. First, EasyTime enables one-click evaluation, enabling researchers to evaluate new forecasting methods using the suite of diverse time series datasets collected in the preexisting time series forecasting benchmark (TFB). This is achieved by leveraging TFB's flexible and consistent evaluation pipeline. Second, when practitioners must perform forecasting on a new dataset, a nontrivial first step is often to find an appropriate forecasting method. EasyTime provides an Automated Ensemble module that combines the promising forecasting methods to yield superior forecasting accuracy compared to individual methods. Third, EasyTime offers a natural language Q&A module leveraging large language models. Given a question like "Which method is best for long term forecasting on time series with strong seasonality?", EasyTime converts the question into SQL queries on the database of results obtained by TFB and then returns an answer in natural language and charts. By demonstrating EasyTime, we intend to show how it is possible to simplify the use of time series forecasting and to offer better support for the development of new generations of time series forecasting methods.

Zhe Li, Xiangfei Qiu, Peng Chen et al.

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is key functionality in numerous fields, such as financial investment, weather services, and energy management. Although increasingly capable TSF methods occur, many of them require domain-specific data collection and model training and do not generalize well when applied in other domains. Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) that are pre-trained on massive heterogeneous time series data aim to overcome these limitations. The prospects for generalizability have spurred the development of a new generation of TSFMs. This study proposes a benchmark, TSFM-Bench, to facilitate comprehensive and unified evaluation of TSFMs. TSFM-Bench covers a wide range of TSFMs, including those based on large language models and those pre-trained on time series data. TSFM-Bench supports multiple forecasting scenarios, including zero-shot, few-shot, and full-shot, enabling assessment across the full range of adaptation strategies. TSFM-Bench also provides a standardized experimental protocols for critical evaluation processes such as dataset splitting, loading, normalization, and few-shot sampling, facilitating consistency and fairness. We report on an extensive evaluation of TSFMs across a diverse range of datasets spanning multiple domains and exhibiting varied statistical characteristics. Specifically, we identify pros and cons and inherent limitations of existing TSFMs, and we propose potential directions for new model designs.

Fengyu Li, Junhao Zhu, Kaishi Song et al.

Table Question Answering (TQA) aims to answer natural language questions over structured tables. Large Language Models (LLMs) enable promising solutions to this problem, with operator-centric solutions that generate table manipulation pipelines in a multi-step manner offering state-of-the-art performance. However, these solutions rely on multiple LLM calls, resulting in prohibitive latencies and computational costs. We propose Operation-R1, the first framework that trains lightweight LLMs (e.g., Qwen-4B/1.7B) via a novel variant of reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards to produce high-quality data-preparation pipelines for TQA in a single inference step. To train such an LLM, we first introduce a self-supervised rewarding mechanism to automatically obtain fine-grained pipeline-wise supervision signals for LLM training. We also propose variance-aware group resampling to mitigate training instability. To further enhance robustness of pipeline generation, we develop two complementary mechanisms: operation merge, which filters spurious operations through multi-candidate consensus, and adaptive rollback, which offers runtime protection against information loss in data transformation. Experiments on two benchmark datasets show that, with the same LLM backbone, Operation-R1 achieves average absolute accuracy gains of 9.55 and 6.08 percentage points over multi-step preparation baselines, with 79\% table compression and a 2.2$\times$ reduction in monetary cost.

Qianru Zhang, Haixin Wang, Cheng Long et al.

This paper focuses on the integration of generative techniques into spatial-temporal data mining, considering the significant growth and diverse nature of spatial-temporal data. With the advancements in RNNs, CNNs, and other non-generative techniques, researchers have explored their application in capturing temporal and spatial dependencies within spatial-temporal data. However, the emergence of generative techniques such as LLMs, SSL, Seq2Seq and diffusion models has opened up new possibilities for enhancing spatial-temporal data mining further. The paper provides a comprehensive analysis of generative technique-based spatial-temporal methods and introduces a standardized framework specifically designed for the spatial-temporal data mining pipeline. By offering a detailed review and a novel taxonomy of spatial-temporal methodology utilizing generative techniques, the paper enables a deeper understanding of the various techniques employed in this field. Furthermore, the paper highlights promising future research directions, urging researchers to delve deeper into spatial-temporal data mining. It emphasizes the need to explore untapped opportunities and push the boundaries of knowledge to unlock new insights and improve the effectiveness and efficiency of spatial-temporal data mining. By integrating generative techniques and providing a standardized framework, the paper contributes to advancing the field and encourages researchers to explore the vast potential of generative techniques in spatial-temporal data mining.

Zhichen Lai, Huan Li, Dalin Zhang et al.

Cyber-physical system sensors emit multivariate time series (MTS) that monitor physical system processes. Such time series generally capture unknown numbers of states, each with a different duration, that correspond to specific conditions, e.g., "walking" or "running" in human-activity monitoring. Unsupervised identification of such states facilitates storage and processing in subsequent data analyses, as well as enhances result interpretability. Existing state-detection proposals face three challenges. First, they introduce substantial computational overhead, rendering them impractical in resourceconstrained or streaming settings. Second, although state-of-the-art (SOTA) proposals employ contrastive learning for representation, insufficient attention to false negatives hampers model convergence and accuracy. Third, SOTA proposals predominantly only emphasize offline non-streaming deployment, we highlight an urgent need to optimize online streaming scenarios. We propose E2Usd that enables efficient-yet-accurate unsupervised MTS state detection. E2Usd exploits a Fast Fourier Transform-based Time Series Compressor (fftCompress) and a Decomposed Dual-view Embedding Module (ddEM) that together encode input MTSs at low computational overhead. Additionally, we propose a False Negative Cancellation Contrastive Learning method (fnccLearning) to counteract the effects of false negatives and to achieve more cluster-friendly embedding spaces. To reduce computational overhead further in streaming settings, we introduce Adaptive Threshold Detection (adaTD). Comprehensive experiments with six baselines and six datasets offer evidence that E2Usd is capable of SOTA accuracy at significantly reduced computational overhead.

Xinle Wu, Xingjian Wu, Dalin Zhang et al.

Societal and industrial infrastructures and systems increasingly leverage sensors that emit correlated time series. Forecasting of future values of such time series based on recorded historical values has important benefits. Automatically designed models achieve higher accuracy than manually designed models. Given a forecasting task, which includes a dataset and a forecasting horizon, automated design methods automatically search for an optimal forecasting model for the task in a manually designed search space, and then train the identified model using the dataset to enable the forecasting. Existing automated methods face three challenges. First, the search space is constructed by human experts, rending the methods only semi-automated and yielding search spaces prone to subjective biases. Second, it is time consuming to search for an optimal model. Third, training the identified model for a new task is also costly. These challenges limit the practicability of automated methods in real-world settings. To contend with the challenges, we propose a fully automated and highly efficient correlated time series forecasting framework where the search and training can be done in minutes. The framework includes a data-driven, iterative strategy to automatically prune a large search space to obtain a high-quality search space for a new forecasting task. It includes a zero-shot search strategy to efficiently identify the optimal model in the customized search space. And it includes a fast parameter adaptation strategy to accelerate the training of the identified model. Experiments on seven benchmark datasets offer evidence that the framework is capable of state-of-the-art accuracy and is much more efficient than existing methods.

Silin Zhou, Shuo Shang, Lisi Chen et al.

Trajectory representation learning (TRL) maps trajectories to vectors that can then be used for various downstream tasks, including trajectory similarity computation, trajectory classification, and travel-time estimation. However, existing TRL methods often produce vectors that, when used in downstream tasks, yield insufficiently accurate results. A key reason is that they fail to utilize the comprehensive information encompassed by trajectories. We propose a self-supervised TRL framework, called RED, which effectively exploits multiple types of trajectory information. Overall, RED adopts the Transformer as the backbone model and masks the constituting paths in trajectories to train a masked autoencoder (MAE). In particular, RED considers the moving patterns of trajectories by employing a Road-aware masking strategy} that retains key paths of trajectories during masking, thereby preserving crucial information of the trajectories. RED also adopts a spatial-temporal-user joint Embedding scheme to encode comprehensive information when preparing the trajectories as model inputs. To conduct training, RED adopts Dual-objective task learning}: the Transformer encoder predicts the next segment in a trajectory, and the Transformer decoder reconstructs the entire trajectory. RED also considers the spatial-temporal correlations of trajectories by modifying the attention mechanism of the Transformer. We compare RED with 9 state-of-the-art TRL methods for 4 downstream tasks on 3 real-world datasets, finding that RED can usually improve the accuracy of the best-performing baseline by over 5%.

Minbo Ma, Jilin Hu, Christian S. Jensen et al.

Spatio-temporal forecasting of future values of spatially correlated time series is important across many cyber-physical systems (CPS). Recent studies offer evidence that the use of graph neural networks to capture latent correlations between time series holds a potential for enhanced forecasting. However, most existing methods rely on pre-defined or self-learning graphs, which are either static or unintentionally dynamic, and thus cannot model the time-varying correlations that exhibit trends and periodicities caused by the regularity of the underlying processes in CPS. To tackle such limitation, we propose Time-aware Graph Structure Learning (TagSL), which extracts time-aware correlations among time series by measuring the interaction of node and time representations in high-dimensional spaces. Notably, we introduce time discrepancy learning that utilizes contrastive learning with distance-based regularization terms to constrain learned spatial correlations to a trend sequence. Additionally, we propose a periodic discriminant function to enable the capture of periodic changes from the state of nodes. Next, we present a Graph Convolution-based Gated Recurrent Unit (GCGRU) that jointly captures spatial and temporal dependencies while learning time-aware and node-specific patterns. Finally, we introduce a unified framework named Time-aware Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network (TGCRN), combining TagSL, and GCGRU in an encoder-decoder architecture for multi-step spatio-temporal forecasting. We report on experiments with TGCRN and popular existing approaches on five real-world datasets, thus providing evidence that TGCRN is capable of advancing the state-of-the-art. We also cover a detailed ablation study and visualization analysis, offering detailed insight into the effectiveness of time-aware structure learning.

David Campos, Bin Yang, Tung Kieu et al.

We are witnessing an increasing availability of streaming data that may contain valuable information on the underlying processes. It is thus attractive to be able to deploy machine learning models on edge devices near sensors such that decisions can be made instantaneously, rather than first having to transmit incoming data to servers. To enable deployment on edge devices with limited storage and computational capabilities, the full-precision parameters in standard models can be quantized to use fewer bits. The resulting quantized models are then calibrated using back-propagation and full training data to ensure accuracy. This one-time calibration works for deployments in static environments. However, model deployment in dynamic edge environments call for continual calibration to adaptively adjust quantized models to fit new incoming data, which may have different distributions. The first difficulty in enabling continual calibration on the edge is that the full training data may be too large and thus not always available on edge devices. The second difficulty is that the use of back-propagation on the edge for repeated calibration is too expensive. We propose QCore to enable continual calibration on the edge. First, it compresses the full training data into a small subset to enable effective calibration of quantized models with different bit-widths. We also propose means of updating the subset when new streaming data arrives to reflect changes in the environment, while not forgetting earlier training data. Second, we propose a small bit-flipping network that works with the subset to update quantized model parameters, thus enabling efficient continual calibration without back-propagation. An experimental study, conducted with real-world data in a continual learning setting, offers insight into the properties of QCore and shows that it is capable of outperforming strong baseline methods.

Silin Zhou, Shuo Shang, Lisi Chen et al.

Trajectory representation learning (TRL) maps trajectories to vectors that can be used for many downstream tasks. Existing TRL methods use either grid trajectories, capturing movement in free space, or road trajectories, capturing movement in a road network, as input. We observe that the two types of trajectories are complementary, providing either region and location information or providing road structure and movement regularity. Therefore, we propose a novel multimodal TRL method, dubbed GREEN, to jointly utilize Grid and Road trajectory Expressions for Effective representatioN learning. In particular, we transform raw GPS trajectories into both grid and road trajectories and tailor two encoders to capture their respective information. To align the two encoders such that they complement each other, we adopt a contrastive loss to encourage them to produce similar embeddings for the same raw trajectory and design a mask language model (MLM) loss to use grid trajectories to help reconstruct masked road trajectories. To learn the final trajectory representation, a dual-modal interactor is used to fuse the outputs of the two encoders via cross-attention. We compare GREEN with 7 state-of-the-art TRL methods for 3 downstream tasks, finding that GREEN consistently outperforms all baselines and improves the accuracy of the best-performing baseline by an average of 15.99\%.

Biao Ouyang, Yingying Zhang, Hanyin Cheng et al.

With the continued migration of storage to cloud database systems,the impact of slow queries in such systems on services and user experience is increasing. Root-cause diagnosis plays an indispensable role in facilitating slow-query detection and revision. This paper proposes a method capable of both identifying possible root cause types for slow queries and ranking these according to their potential for accelerating slow queries. This enables prioritizing root causes with the highest impact, in turn improving slow-query revision effectiveness. To enable more accurate and detailed diagnoses, we propose the multimodal Ranking for the Root Causes of slow queries (RCRank) framework, which formulates root cause analysis as a multimodal machine learning problem and leverages multimodal information from query statements, execution plans, execution logs, and key performance indicators. To obtain expressive embeddings from its heterogeneous multimodal input, RCRank integrates self-supervised pre-training that enhances cross-modal alignment and task relevance. Next, the framework integrates root-cause-adaptive cross Transformers that enable adaptive fusion of multimodal features with varying characteristics. Finally, the framework offers a unified model that features an impact-aware training objective for identifying and ranking root causes. We report on experiments on real and synthetic datasets, finding that RCRank is capable of consistently outperforming the state-of-the-art methods at root cause identification and ranking according to a range of metrics.

Duc Kieu, Tung Kieu, Peng Han et al.

Due to the global trend towards urbanization, people increasingly move to and live in cities that then continue to grow. Traffic forecasting plays an important role in the intelligent transportation systems of cities as well as in spatio-temporal data mining. State-of-the-art forecasting is achieved by deep-learning approaches due to their ability to contend with complex spatio-temporal dynamics. However, existing methods assume the input is fixed-topology road networks and static traffic time series. These assumptions fail to align with urbanization, where time series are collected continuously and road networks evolve over time. In such settings, deep-learning models require frequent re-initialization and re-training, imposing high computational costs. To enable much more efficient training without jeopardizing model accuracy, we propose the Topological Evolution-aware Framework (TEAM) for traffic forecasting that incorporates convolution and attention. This combination of mechanisms enables better adaptation to newly collected time series, while being able to maintain learned knowledge from old time series. TEAM features a continual learning module based on the Wasserstein metric that acts as a buffer that can identify the most stable and the most changing network nodes. Then, only data related to stable nodes is employed for re-training when consolidating a model. Further, only data of new nodes and their adjacent nodes as well as data pertaining to changing nodes are used to re-train the model. Empirical studies with two real-world traffic datasets offer evidence that TEAM is capable of much lower re-training costs than existing methods are, without jeopardizing forecasting accuracy.

Yuchen Fang, Hao Miao, Yuxuan Liang et al.

Spatio-temporal deep learning models aims to utilize useful patterns in such data to support tasks like prediction. However, previous deep learning models designed for specific tasks typically require separate training for each use case, leading to increased computational and storage costs. To address this issue, spatio-temporal foundation models have emerged, offering a unified framework capable of solving multiple spatio-temporal tasks. These foundation models achieve remarkable success by learning general knowledge with spatio-temporal data or transferring the general capabilities of pre-trained language models. While previous surveys have explored spatio-temporal data and methodologies separately, they have ignored a comprehensive examination of how foundation models are designed, selected, pre-trained, and adapted. As a result, the overall pipeline for spatio-temporal foundation models remains unclear. To bridge this gap, we innovatively provide an up-to-date review of previous spatio-temporal foundation models from the pipeline perspective. The pipeline begins with an introduction to different types of spatio-temporal data, followed by details of data preprocessing and embedding techniques. The pipeline then presents a novel data property taxonomy to divide existing methods according to data sources and dependencies, providing efficient and effective model design and selection for researchers. On this basis, we further illustrate the training objectives of primitive models, as well as the adaptation techniques of transferred models. Overall, our survey provides a clear and structured pipeline to understand the connection between core elements of spatio-temporal foundation models while guiding researchers to get started quickly. Additionally, we introduce emerging opportunities such as multi-objective training in the field of spatio-temporal foundation models.

Yanchuan Chang, Xu Cai, Christian S. Jensen et al.

Trajectory similarity is fundamental to many spatio-temporal data mining applications. Recent studies propose deep learning models to approximate conventional trajectory similarity measures, exploiting their fast inference time once trained. Although efficient inference has been reported, challenges remain in similarity approximation accuracy due to difficulties in trajectory granularity modeling and in exploiting similarity signals in the training data. To fill this gap, we propose TSMini, a highly effective trajectory similarity model with a sub-view modeling mechanism capable of learning multi-granularity trajectory patterns and a k nearest neighbor-based loss that guides TSMini to learn not only absolute similarity values between trajectories but also their relative similarity ranks. Together, these two innovations enable highly accurate trajectory similarity approximation. Experiments show that TSMini can outperform the state-of-the-art models by 22% in accuracy on average when learning trajectory similarity measures.

Bin Yang, Yuxuan Liang, Chenjuan Guo et al.

Time series data captures properties that change over time. Such data occurs widely, ranging from the scientific and medical domains to the industrial and environmental domains. When the properties in time series exhibit spatial variations, we often call the data spatio-temporal. As part of the continued digitalization of processes throughout society, increasingly large volumes of time series and spatio-temporal data are available. In this tutorial, we focus on data-driven decision making with such data, e.g., enabling greener and more efficient transportation based on traffic time series forecasting. The tutorial adopts the holistic paradigm of ``data-governance-analytics-decision.'' We first introduce the data foundation of time series and spatio-temporal data, which is often heterogeneous. Next, we discuss data governance methods that aim to improve data quality. We then cover data analytics, focusing on the ``AGREE'' principles: Automation, Generalization, Robustness, Explainability, and Efficiency. We finally cover data-driven decision making strategies and briefly discuss promising research directions. We hope that the tutorial will serve as a primary resource for researchers and practitioners who are interested in value creation from time series and spatio-temporal data.

Haomin Yu, Tianyi Li, Kristian Torp et al.

Accurate vessel trajectory prediction facilitates improved navigational safety, routing, and environmental protection. However, existing prediction methods are challenged by the irregular sampling time intervals of the vessel tracking data from the global AIS system and the complexity of vessel movement. These aspects render model learning and generalization difficult. To address these challenges and improve vessel trajectory prediction, we propose the multi-modal knowledge-enhanced framework (MAKER) for vessel trajectory prediction. To contend better with the irregular sampling time intervals, MAKER features a Large language model-guided Knowledge Transfer (LKT) module that leverages pre-trained language models to transfer trajectory-specific contextual knowledge effectively. To enhance the ability to learn complex trajectory patterns, MAKER incorporates a Knowledge-based Self-paced Learning (KSL) module. This module employs kinematic knowledge to progressively integrate complex patterns during training, allowing for adaptive learning and enhanced generalization. Experimental results on two vessel trajectory datasets show that MAKER can improve the prediction accuracy of state-of-the-art methods by 12.08%-17.86%.

Yan Lin, Jilin Hu, Shengnan Guo et al.

Microscopic road-network weights represent fine-grained, time-varying traffic conditions obtained from individual vehicles. An example is travel speeds associated with road segments as vehicles traverse them. These weights support tasks including traffic microsimulation and vehicle routing with reliability guarantees. We study the problem of time-varying microscopic weight completion. During a time slot, the available weights typically cover only some road segments. Weight completion recovers distributions for the weights of every road segment at the current time slot. This problem involves two challenges: (i) contending with two layers of sparsity, where weights are missing at both the network layer (many road segments lack weights) and the segment layer (a segment may have insufficient weights to enable accurate distribution estimation); and (ii) achieving a weight distribution representation that is closed-form and can capture complex conditions flexibly, including heavy tails and multiple clusters. To address these challenges, we propose DiSGMM that combines sparsity-aware embeddings with spatiotemporal modeling to leverage sparse known weights alongside learned segment properties and long-range correlations for distribution estimation. DiSGMM represents distributions of microscopic weights as learnable Gaussian mixture models, providing closed-form distributions capable of capturing complex conditions flexibly. Experiments on two real-world datasets show that DiSGMM can outperform state-of-the-art methods.

Junhao Zhu, Lu Chen, Xiangyu Ke et al.

Multi-modal analytical processing has the potential to transform applications in e-commerce, healthcare, entertainment, and beyond. However, real-world adoption remains elusive due to the limited ability of traditional relational query operators to capture query semantics. The emergence of foundation models, particularly the large language models (LLMs), opens up new opportunities to develop flexible, semantic-aware data analytics systems that transcend the relational paradigm. We present Nirvana, a multi-modal data analytics framework that incorporates programmable semantic operators while leveraging both logical and physical query optimization strategies, tailored for LLM-driven semantic query processing. Nirvana addresses two key challenges. First, it features an agentic logical optimizer that uses natural language-specified transformation rules and random-walk-based search to explore vast spaces of semantically equivalent query plans -- far beyond the capabilities of conventional optimizers. Second, it introduces a cost-aware physical optimizer that selects the most effective LLM backend for each operator using a novel improvement-score metric. To further enhance efficiency, Nirvana incorporates computation reuse and evaluation pushdown techniques guided by model capability hypotheses. Experimental evaluations on three real-world benchmarks demonstrate that Nirvana is able to reduce end-to-end runtime by 10%--85% and reduces system processing costs by 76% on average, outperforming state-of-the-art systems at both efficiency and scalability.

Buang Zhang, Tung Kieu, Xiangfei Qiu et al.

Time series anomaly detection is important in modern large-scale systems and is applied in a variety of domains to analyze and monitor the operation of diverse systems. Unsupervised approaches have received widespread interest, as they do not require anomaly labels during training, thus avoiding potentially high costs and having wider applications. Among these, autoencoders have received extensive attention. They use reconstruction errors from compressed representations to define anomaly scores. However, representations learned by autoencoders are sensitive to anomalies in training time series, causing reduced accuracy. We propose a novel encode-then-decompose paradigm, where we decompose the encoded representation into stable and auxiliary representations, thereby enhancing the robustness when training with contaminated time series. In addition, we propose a novel mutual information based metric to replace the reconstruction errors for identifying anomalies. Our proposal demonstrates competitive or state-of-the-art performance on eight commonly used multi- and univariate time series benchmarks and exhibits robustness to time series with different contamination ratios.

Panos Kalnis. Shuo Shang, Christian S. Jensen

Spatio-temporal data captures complex dynamics across both space and time, yet traditional visualizations are complex, require domain expertise and often fail to resonate with broader audiences. Here, we propose MapMuse, a storytelling-based framework for interpreting spatio-temporal datasets, transforming them into compelling, narrative-driven experiences. We utilize large language models and employ retrieval augmented generation (RAG) and agent-based techniques to generate comprehensive stories. Drawing on principles common in cinematic storytelling, we emphasize clarity, emotional connection, and audience-centric design. As a case study, we analyze a dataset of taxi trajectories. Two perspectives are presented: a captivating story based on a heat map that visualizes millions of taxi trip endpoints to uncover urban mobility patterns; and a detailed narrative following a single long taxi journey, enriched with city landmarks and temporal shifts. By portraying locations as characters and movement as plot, we argue that data storytelling drives insight, engagement, and action from spatio-temporal information. The case study illustrates how MapMuse can bridge the gap between data complexity and human understanding. The aim of this short paper is to provide a glimpse to the potential of the cinematic storytelling technique as an effective communication tool for spatio-temporal data, as well as to describe open problems and opportunities for future research.

Xiangfei Qiu, Liu Yang, Hanyin Cheng et al.

Time series forecasting occurs in a range of financial applications providing essential decision-making support to investors, regulatory institutions, and analysts. Unlike multivariate time series from other domains, stock time series exhibit industry correlation. Exploiting this kind of correlation can improve forecasting accuracy. However, existing methods based on hypergraphs can only capture industry correlation relatively superficially. These methods face two key limitations: they do not fully consider inter-industry lead-lag interactions, and they do not model multi-scale information within and among industries. This study proposes the Hermes framework for stock time series forecasting that aims to improve the exploitation of industry correlation by eliminating these limitations. The framework integrates moving aggregation and multi-scale fusion modules in a hypergraph network. Specifically, to more flexibly capture the lead-lag relationships among industries, Hermes proposes a hyperedge-based moving aggregation module. This module incorporates a sliding window and utilizes dynamic temporal aggregation operations to consider lead-lag dependencies among industries. Additionally, to effectively model multi-scale information, Hermes employs cross-scale, edge-to-edge message passing to integrate information from different scales while maintaining the consistency of each scale. Experimental results on multiple real-world stock datasets show that Hermes outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods in both efficiency and accuracy.

Hengyu Liu, Yushuai Li, Minghe Yu et al.

Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS), such as Massive Open Online Courses, offer new opportunities for human learning. At the core of such systems, knowledge tracing (KT) predicts students' future performance by analyzing their historical learning activities, enabling an accurate evaluation of students' knowledge states over time. We show that existing KT methods often encounter correlation conflicts when analyzing the relationships between historical learning sequences and future performance. To address such conflicts, we propose to extract so-called Follow-up Performance Trends (FPTs) from historical ITS data and to incorporate them into KT. We propose a method called Forward-Looking Knowledge Tracing (FINER) that combines historical learning sequences with FPTs to enhance student performance prediction accuracy. FINER constructs learning patterns that facilitate the retrieval of FPTs from historical ITS data in linear time; FINER includes a novel similarity-aware attention mechanism that aggregates FPTs based on both frequency and contextual similarity; and FINER offers means of combining FPTs and historical learning sequences to enable more accurate prediction of student future performance. Experiments on six real-world datasets show that FINER can outperform ten state-of-the-art KT methods, increasing accuracy by 8.74% to 84.85%.