Changliang Zou

Junxi Wu, Kailin Huang, Dongjian Hu et al.

Detecting AI-generated text is an important but challenging problem. Existing likelihood-based detection methods are often sensitive to content complexity and may exhibit unstable performance. In this paper, our key insight is that modern Large Language Models (LLMs) undergo alignment (including fine-tuning and preference tuning), leaving a measurable distributional imprint. We theoretically derive this imprint by abstracting the alignment process as a sequence of constrained optimization steps, showing that the log-likelihood ratio can naturally decompose into implicit instructional biases and preference rewards. We refer to this quantity as the Alignment Imprint. Furthermore, to mitigate the instability in high-entropy regions, we introduce Log-likelihood Alignment Preference Discrepancy (LAPD), a standardized information-weighted statistic based on alignment imprint. We provide statistical guarantee that alignment-based statistics dominate Fast-DetectGPT in performance. We also theoretically show that LAPD strictly improves the unweighted alignment scores when the aligned and base models are close in distribution. Extensive experiments show that LAPD achieves an improvement 45.82% relative to the strongest existing baselines, yielding large and consistent gains across all settings.

Yinjie Min, Liuhua Peng, Changliang Zou

Existing evaluations of conformal prediction, such as prediction efficiency and test-conditional coverage, are defined in expectation over the calibration data. In practice, when only one calibration set of limited size is available, prediction sets often exhibit high variability in size, especially for methods with localization. We formalize this concern as set stability, defined as the variance of the conditional expectation of the set size given the calibration data. To improve stability without requiring additional target-task labels, we propose Stable Conformal Prediction (StCP), a transfer learning approach that utilizes labeled source-task data and unlabeled target data. Theoretically, we characterize the marginal coverage and stability of StCP; empirically, it delivers more stable prediction sets than standard conformal prediction methods, especially for those with localization, when calibration data are limited.

Xiaoning Wang, Yuyang Huo, Liuhua Peng et al.

$U$-statistics play a central role in statistical inference. In many modern applications, however, acquiring the labels required for $U$-statistics is costly. Motivated by recent advances in active inference, we develop an active inference framework for $U$-statistics that selectively queries informative labels to improve estimation efficiency under a fixed labeling budget, while preserving valid statistical inference. Our approach is built on the augmented inverse probability weighting $U$-statistic, which is designed to incorporate the sampling rule and machine learning predictions. We characterize the optimal sampling rule that minimizes its variance and design practical sampling strategies. We further extend the framework to $U$-statistic-based empirical risk minimization. Experiments on real datasets demonstrate substantial gains in estimation efficiency over baseline methods, while maintaining target coverage.

Congbin Xu, Yue Yu, Haojie Ren et al.

Conformal prediction offers a distribution-free framework for constructing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage. Yet, efficiently leveraging multiple conformity scores to reduce prediction set size remains a major open challenge. Instead of selecting a single best score, this work introduces a principled aggregation strategy, COnfidence-Level Allocation (COLA), that optimally allocates confidence levels across multiple conformal prediction sets to minimize empirical set size while maintaining provable coverage. Two variants are further developed, COLA-s and COLA-f, which guarantee finite-sample marginal coverage via sample splitting and full conformalization, respectively. In addition, we develop COLA-l, an individualized allocation strategy that promotes local size efficiency while achieving asymptotic conditional coverage. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that COLA achieves considerably smaller prediction sets than state-of-the-art baselines while maintaining valid coverage.

Dongjian Hu, Junxi Wu, Shu-Tao Xia et al.

Conformal prediction provides a pivotal and flexible technique for uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction sets with a predefined coverage rate. Many online conformal prediction methods have been developed to address data distribution shifts in fully adversarial environments, resulting in overly conservative prediction sets. We propose Conformal Optimistic Prediction (COP), an online conformal prediction algorithm incorporating underlying data pattern into the update rule. Through estimated cumulative distribution function of non-conformity scores, COP produces tighter prediction sets when predictable pattern exists, while retaining valid coverage guarantees even when estimates are inaccurate. We establish a joint bound on coverage and regret, which further confirms the validity of our approach. We also prove that COP achieves distribution-free, finite-sample coverage under arbitrary learning rates and can converge when scores are $i.i.d.$. The experimental results also show that COP can achieve valid coverage and construct shorter prediction intervals than other baselines.

Junxi Wu, Dongjian Hu, Yajie Bao et al.

Uncertainty quantification in time series prediction is challenging due to the temporal dependence and distribution shift on sequential data. Conformal inference provides a pivotal and flexible instrument for assessing the uncertainty of machine learning models through prediction sets. Recently, a series of online conformal inference methods updated thresholds of prediction sets by performing online gradient descent on a sequence of quantile loss functions. A drawback of such methods is that they only use the information of revealed non-conformity scores via miscoverage indicators but ignore error quantification, namely the distance between the non-conformity score and the current threshold. To accurately leverage the dynamic of miscoverage error, we propose \textit{Error-quantified Conformal Inference} (ECI) by smoothing the quantile loss function. ECI introduces a continuous and adaptive feedback scale with the miscoverage error, rather than simple binary feedback in existing methods. We establish a long-term coverage guarantee for ECI under arbitrary dependence and distribution shift. The extensive experimental results show that ECI can achieve valid miscoverage control and output tighter prediction sets than other baselines.

Yajie Bao, Yuyang Huo, Haojie Ren et al.

We study the problem of post-selection predictive inference in an online fashion. To avoid devoting resources to unimportant units, a preliminary selection of the current individual before reporting its prediction interval is common and meaningful in online predictive tasks. Since the online selection causes a temporal multiplicity in the selected prediction intervals, it is important to control the real-time false coverage-statement rate (FCR) which measures the overall miscoverage level. We develop a general framework named CAP (Calibration after Adaptive Pick) that performs an adaptive pick rule on historical data to construct a calibration set if the current individual is selected and then outputs a conformal prediction interval for the unobserved label. We provide tractable procedures for constructing the calibration set for popular online selection rules. We proved that CAP can achieve an exact selection-conditional coverage guarantee in the finite-sample and distribution-free regimes. To account for the distribution shift in online data, we also embed CAP into some recent dynamic conformal prediction algorithms and show that the proposed method can deliver long-run FCR control. Numerical results on both synthetic and real data corroborate that CAP can effectively control FCR around the target level and yield more narrowed prediction intervals over existing baselines across various settings.

Zhekai Du, Yinjie Min, Jingjing Li et al.

Low-rank adaptation (LoRA) has become a prevalent method for adapting pre-trained large language models to downstream tasks. However, the simple low-rank decomposition form may constrain the hypothesis space. To address this limitation, we introduce Location-aware Cosine Adaptation (LoCA), a novel frequency-domain parameter-efficient fine-tuning method based on inverse Discrete Cosine Transform (iDCT) with selective locations of learnable components. We begin with a comprehensive theoretical comparison between frequency-domain and low-rank decompositions for fine-tuning pre-trained large models. Our analysis reveals that frequency-domain decomposition with carefully selected frequency components can surpass the expressivity of traditional low-rank-based methods. Furthermore, we demonstrate that iDCT offers a more efficient implementation compared to inverse Discrete Fourier Transform (iDFT), allowing for better selection and tuning of frequency components while maintaining equivalent expressivity to the optimal iDFT-based adaptation. By employing finite-difference approximation to estimate gradients for discrete locations of learnable coefficients on the DCT spectrum, LoCA dynamically selects the most informative frequency components during training. Experiments on diverse language and vision fine-tuning tasks demonstrate that LoCA offers enhanced parameter efficiency while maintains computational feasibility comparable to low-rank-based methods.

Qian Peng, Yajie Bao, Haojie Ren et al.

Conformal prediction is a powerful tool for constructing prediction intervals for black-box models, providing a finite sample coverage guarantee for exchangeable data. However, this exchangeability is compromised when some entries of the test feature are contaminated, such as in the case of cellwise outliers. To address this issue, this paper introduces a novel framework called detect-then-impute conformal prediction. This framework first employs an outlier detection procedure on the test feature and then utilizes an imputation method to fill in those cells identified as outliers. To quantify the uncertainty in the processed test feature, we adaptively apply the detection and imputation procedures to the calibration set, thereby constructing exchangeable features for the conformal prediction interval of the test label. We develop two practical algorithms, PDI-CP and JDI-CP, and provide a distribution-free coverage analysis under some commonly used detection and imputation procedures. Notably, JDI-CP achieves a finite sample $1-2α$ coverage guarantee. Numerical experiments on both synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that our proposed algorithms exhibit robust coverage properties and comparable efficiency to the oracle baseline.

Yajie Bao, Yang Hu, Haojie Ren et al.

In decision-making under uncertainty, Contextual Robust Optimization (CRO) provides reliability by minimizing the worst-case decision loss over a prediction set, hedging against label variability. While recent advances use conformal prediction to construct prediction sets for machine learning models, the downstream decisions critically depend on model selection. This paper introduces novel model selection frameworks for CRO that unify robustness control with decision risk minimization. We first propose Conformalized Robust Optimization with Model Selection (CROMS), which automatically selects models to approximately minimize the average decision risk in CRO solutions. We develop two algorithms: E-CROMS, which is computationally efficient, and F-CROMS, which enjoys a marginal robustness guarantee in finite samples. Further, we introduce Conformalized Robust Optimization with Individualized Model Selection (CROiMS), which performs individualized model selection by minimizing the conditional decision risk given the covariate of test data. This framework advances conformal prediction methodology by enabling covariate-aware model selection. Theoretically, CROiMS achieves asymptotic conditional robustness and decision efficiency under mild assumptions. Numerical results demonstrate significant improvements in decision efficiency and robustness across diverse synthetic and real-world applications, outperforming baseline approaches.

Junhao Long, Fengwei Yang, Juncheng Yan et al.

Image denoising of low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) is an important problem for clinical diagnosis with reduced radiation exposure. Previous methods are mostly trained with pairs of synthetic or misaligned LDCT and normal-dose CT (NDCT) images. However, trained with synthetic noise or misaligned LDCT/NDCT image pairs, the denoising networks would suffer from blurry structure or motion artifacts. Since non-contrast CT (NCCT) images share the content characteristics to the corresponding NDCT images in a three-phase scan, they can potentially provide useful information for real-world LDCT image denoising. To exploit this aspect, in this paper, we propose to incorporate clean NCCT images as useful guidance for the learning of real-world LDCT image denoising networks. To alleviate the issue of spatial misalignment in training data, we design a new Patch Triplet Similarity Purification (PTSP) strategy to select highly similar patch (instead of image) triplets of LDCT, NDCT, and NCCT images for network training. Furthermore, we modify two image denoising transformers of SwinIR and HAT to accommodate the NCCT image guidance, by replacing vanilla self-attention with cross-attention. On our collected clinical dataset, the modified transformers trained with the data selected by our PTSP strategy show better performance than 15 comparison methods on real-world LDCT image denoising. Ablation studies validate the effectiveness of our NCCT image guidance and PTSP strategy. We will publicly release our data and code.