Ioannis Papoutsis

Ioannis Prapas, Nikolaos Ioannis Bountos, Spyros Kondylatos et al.

Wildfires are increasingly exacerbated as a result of climate change, necessitating advanced proactive measures for effective mitigation. It is important to forecast wildfires weeks and months in advance to plan forest fuel management, resource procurement and allocation. To achieve such accurate long-term forecasts at a global scale, it is crucial to employ models that account for the Earth system's inherent spatio-temporal interactions, such as memory effects and teleconnections. We propose a teleconnection-driven vision transformer (TeleViT), capable of treating the Earth as one interconnected system, integrating fine-grained local-scale inputs with global-scale inputs, such as climate indices and coarse-grained global variables. Through comprehensive experimentation, we demonstrate the superiority of TeleViT in accurately predicting global burned area patterns for various forecasting windows, up to four months in advance. The gain is especially pronounced in larger forecasting windows, demonstrating the improved ability of deep learning models that exploit teleconnections to capture Earth system dynamics. Code available at https://github.com/Orion-Ai-Lab/TeleViT.

Maria Sdraka, Alkinoos Dimakos, Alexandros Malounis et al.

Over the last decade there has been an increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires across the globe, posing significant threats to human and animal lives, ecosystems, and socio-economic stability. Therefore urgent action is required to mitigate their devastating impact and safeguard Earth's natural resources. Robust Machine Learning methods combined with the abundance of high-resolution satellite imagery can provide accurate and timely mappings of the affected area in order to assess the scale of the event, identify the impacted assets and prioritize and allocate resources effectively for the proper restoration of the damaged region. In this work, we create and introduce a machine-learning ready dataset we name FLOGA (Forest wiLdfire Observations for the Greek Area). This dataset is unique as it comprises of satellite imagery acquired before and after a wildfire event, it contains information from Sentinel-2 and MODIS modalities with variable spatial and spectral resolution, and contains a large number of events where the corresponding burnt area ground truth has been annotated by domain experts. FLOGA covers the wider region of Greece, which is characterized by a Mediterranean landscape and climatic conditions. We use FLOGA to provide a thorough comparison of multiple Machine Learning and Deep Learning algorithms for the automatic extraction of burnt areas, approached as a change detection task. We also compare the results to those obtained using standard specialized spectral indices for burnt area mapping. Finally, we propose a novel Deep Learning model, namely BAM-CD. Our benchmark results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed technique in the automatic extraction of burnt areas, outperforming all other methods in terms of accuracy and robustness. Our dataset and code are publicly available at: https://github.com/Orion-AI-Lab/FLOGA.

Spyros Kondylatos, Ioannis Prapas, Gustau Camps-Valls et al.

We introduce Mesogeos, a large-scale multi-purpose dataset for wildfire modeling in the Mediterranean. Mesogeos integrates variables representing wildfire drivers (meteorology, vegetation, human activity) and historical records of wildfire ignitions and burned areas for 17 years (2006-2022). It is designed as a cloud-friendly spatio-temporal dataset, namely a datacube, harmonizing all variables in a grid of 1km x 1km x 1-day resolution. The datacube structure offers opportunities to assess machine learning (ML) usage in various wildfire modeling tasks. We extract two ML-ready datasets that establish distinct tracks to demonstrate this potential: (1) short-term wildfire danger forecasting and (2) final burned area estimation given the point of ignition. We define appropriate metrics and baselines to evaluate the performance of models in each track. By publishing the datacube, along with the code to create the ML datasets and models, we encourage the community to foster the implementation of additional tracks for mitigating the increasing threat of wildfires in the Mediterranean.

Ioannis Prapas, Akanksha Ahuja, Spyros Kondylatos et al.

Climate change is expected to aggravate wildfire activity through the exacerbation of fire weather. Improving our capabilities to anticipate wildfires on a global scale is of uttermost importance for mitigating their negative effects. In this work, we create a global fire dataset and demonstrate a prototype for predicting the presence of global burned areas on a sub-seasonal scale with the use of segmentation deep learning models. Particularly, we present an open-access global analysis-ready datacube, which contains a variety of variables related to the seasonal and sub-seasonal fire drivers (climate, vegetation, oceanic indices, human-related variables), as well as the historical burned areas and wildfire emissions for 2001-2021. We train a deep learning model, which treats global wildfire forecasting as an image segmentation task and skillfully predicts the presence of burned areas 8, 16, 32 and 64 days ahead of time. Our work motivates the use of deep learning for global burned area forecasting and paves the way towards improved anticipation of global wildfire patterns.

Dimitrios Sykas, Maria Sdraka, Dimitrios Zografakis et al.

In this work we introduce Sen4AgriNet, a Sentinel-2 based time series multi country benchmark dataset, tailored for agricultural monitoring applications with Machine and Deep Learning. Sen4AgriNet dataset is annotated from farmer declarations collected via the Land Parcel Identification System (LPIS) for harmonizing country wide labels. These declarations have only recently been made available as open data, allowing for the first time the labeling of satellite imagery from ground truth data. We proceed to propose and standardise a new crop type taxonomy across Europe that address Common Agriculture Policy (CAP) needs, based on the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Indicative Crop Classification scheme. Sen4AgriNet is the only multi-country, multi-year dataset that includes all spectral information. It is constructed to cover the period 2016-2020 for Catalonia and France, while it can be extended to include additional countries. Currently, it contains 42.5 million parcels, which makes it significantly larger than other available archives. We extract two sub-datasets to highlight its value for diverse Deep Learning applications; the Object Aggregated Dataset (OAD) and the Patches Assembled Dataset (PAD). OAD capitalizes zonal statistics of each parcel, thus creating a powerful label-to-features instance for classification algorithms. On the other hand, PAD structure generalizes the classification problem to parcel extraction and semantic segmentation and labeling. The PAD and OAD are examined under three different scenarios to showcase and model the effects of spatial and temporal variability across different years and different countries.

Nikolaos Ioannis Bountos, Ioannis Papoutsis, Dimitrios Michail et al.

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data and Interferometric SAR (InSAR) products in particular, are one of the largest sources of Earth Observation data. InSAR provides unique information on diverse geophysical processes and geology, and on the geotechnical properties of man-made structures. However, there are only a limited number of applications that exploit the abundance of InSAR data and deep learning methods to extract such knowledge. The main barrier has been the lack of a large curated and annotated InSAR dataset, which would be costly to create and would require an interdisciplinary team of experts experienced on InSAR data interpretation. In this work, we put the effort to create and make available the first of its kind, manually annotated dataset that consists of 19,919 individual Sentinel-1 interferograms acquired over 44 different volcanoes globally, which are split into 216,106 InSAR patches. The annotated dataset is designed to address different computer vision problems, including volcano state classification, semantic segmentation of ground deformation, detection and classification of atmospheric signals in InSAR imagery, interferogram captioning, text to InSAR generation, and InSAR image quality assessment.

Nikolaos Ioannis Bountos, Maria Sdraka, Angelos Zavras et al.

Global floods, exacerbated by climate change, pose severe threats to human life, infrastructure, and the environment. Recent catastrophic events in Pakistan and New Zealand underscore the urgent need for precise flood mapping to guide restoration efforts, understand vulnerabilities, and prepare for future occurrences. While Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) remote sensing offers day-and-night, all-weather imaging capabilities, its application in deep learning for flood segmentation is limited by the lack of large annotated datasets. To address this, we introduce Kuro Siwo, a manually annotated multi-temporal dataset, spanning 43 flood events globally. Our dataset maps more than 338 billion $m^2$ of land, with 33 billion designated as either flooded areas or permanent water bodies. Kuro Siwo includes a highly processed product optimized for flood mapping based on SAR Ground Range Detected, and a primal SAR Single Look Complex product with minimal preprocessing, designed to promote research on the exploitation of both the phase and amplitude information and to offer maximum flexibility for downstream task preprocessing. To leverage advances in large scale self-supervised pretraining methods for remote sensing data, we augment Kuro Siwo with a large unlabeled set of SAR samples. Finally, we provide an extensive benchmark, namely BlackBench, offering strong baselines for a diverse set of flood events from Europe, America, Africa, Asia and Australia.

Maria Sdraka, Dimitrios Michail, Ioannis Papoutsis

Delineating wildfire affected areas using satellite imagery remains challenging due to irregular and spatially heterogeneous spectral changes across the electromagnetic spectrum. While recent deep learning approaches achieve high accuracy when high-resolution multispectral data are available, their applicability in operational settings, where a quick delineation of the burn scar shortly after a wildfire incident is required, is limited by the trade-off between spatial resolution and temporal revisit frequency of current satellite systems. To address this limitation, we propose a novel deep learning model, namely BAM-MRCD, which employs multi-resolution, multi-source satellite imagery (MODIS and Sentinel-2) for the timely production of detailed burnt area maps with high spatial and temporal resolution. Our model manages to detect even small scale wildfires with high accuracy, surpassing similar change detection models as well as solid baselines. All data and code are available in the GitHub repository: https://github.com/Orion-AI-Lab/BAM-MRCD.

Zhitong Xiong, Yi Wang, Fahong Zhang et al.

Earth observation (EO) in open-world settings presents a unique challenge: different applications rely on diverse sensor modalities, each with varying ground sampling distances, spectral ranges, and numbers of spectral bands. However, existing EO foundation models are typically tailored to specific sensor types, making them inflexible when generalizing across the heterogeneous landscape of EO data. To address this, we propose the Dynamic One-For-All (DOFA) model, a unified, multimodal foundation framework designed for diverse vision tasks in EO. Inspired by neural plasticity, DOFA utilizes a wavelength-conditioned dynamic hypernetwork to process inputs from five distinct satellite sensors flexibly. By continually pretraining on five EO modalities, DOFA achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple downstream tasks and generalizes well to unseen modalities. Enhanced with hybrid continual pretraining, DOFA+ requires significantly fewer computational resources while outperforming counterparts trained with extensive GPU budgets. Experiments on diverse datasets highlight DOFA's potential as a foundation for general-purpose vision models in the sensor-diverse EO domain. The code and pre-trained weights are publicly available at https://github.com/zhu-xlab/DOFA.

Alexis Apostolakis, Vasileios Botsos, Niklas Wölki et al.

Clouds are a major obstacle in Earth observation, limiting the usability and reliability of critical remote sensing applications such as fire disaster response, urban heat island monitoring, and snow and ice cover mapping. Therefore, the ability to detect clouds 24/7 is of paramount importance. While visible and near-infrared bands are effective for daytime cloud detection, their dependence on solar illumination makes them unsuitable for nighttime monitoring. In contrast, thermal infrared (TIR) imagery plays a crucial role in detecting clouds at night, when sunlight is absent. Due to their generally lower temperatures, clouds emit distinct thermal signatures that are detectable in TIR bands. Despite this, accurate nighttime cloud detection remains challenging due to limited spectral information and the typically lower spatial resolution of TIR imagery. To address these challenges, we present TIRAuxCloud, a multi-modal dataset centered around thermal spectral data to facilitate cloud segmentation under both daytime and nighttime conditions. The dataset comprises a unique combination of multispectral data (TIR, optical, and near-infrared bands) from Landsat and VIIRS, aligned with auxiliary information layers. Elevation, land cover, meteorological variables, and cloud-free reference images are included to help reduce surface-cloud ambiguity and cloud formation uncertainty. To overcome the scarcity of manual cloud labels, we include a large set of samples with automated cloud masks and a smaller manually annotated subset to further evaluate and improve models. Comprehensive benchmarks are presented to establish performance baselines through supervised and transfer learning, demonstrating the dataset's value in advancing the development of innovative methods for day and night time cloud detection.

Angelos Zavras, Dimitrios Michail, Begüm Demir et al.

Deep Learning (DL) is undergoing a paradigm shift with the emergence of foundation models. In this work, we focus on Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training (CLIP), a Vision-Language foundation model that achieves high accuracy across various image classification tasks and often rivals fully supervised baselines, despite not being explicitly trained for those tasks. Nevertheless, there are still domains where zero-shot CLIP performance is far from optimal, such as Remote Sensing (RS) and medical imagery. These domains do not only exhibit fundamentally different distributions compared to natural images, but also commonly rely on complementary modalities, beyond RGB, to derive meaningful insights. To this end, we propose a methodology to align distinct RS image modalities with the visual and textual modalities of CLIP. Our two-stage procedure addresses the aforementioned distribution shift, extends the zero-shot capabilities of CLIP and enriches CLIP's shared embedding space with domain-specific knowledge. Initially, we robustly fine-tune CLIP according to the PAINT (Ilharco et al., 2022) patching protocol, in order to deal with the distribution shift. Building upon this foundation, we facilitate the cross-modal alignment of a RS modality encoder by distilling knowledge from the CLIP visual and textual encoders. We empirically show that both patching and cross-modal alignment translate to significant performance gains, across several RS imagery classification and cross-modal retrieval benchmark datasets. Notably, these enhancements are achieved without the reliance on textual descriptions, without introducing any task-specific parameters, without training from scratch and without catastrophic forgetting. We make our code implementation and weights for all experiments publicly available at https://github.com/Orion-AI-Lab/MindTheModalityGap.

Yi Wang, Zhitong Xiong, Chenying Liu et al.

Advances in Earth observation (EO) foundation models have unlocked the potential of big satellite data to learn generic representations from space, benefiting a wide range of downstream applications crucial to our planet. However, most existing efforts remain limited to fixed spectral sensors, focus solely on the Earth's surface, and overlook valuable metadata beyond imagery. In this work, we take a step towards next-generation EO foundation models with three key components: 1) Copernicus-Pretrain, a massive-scale pretraining dataset that integrates 18.7M aligned images from all major Copernicus Sentinel missions, spanning from the Earth's surface to its atmosphere; 2) Copernicus-FM, a unified foundation model capable of processing any spectral or non-spectral sensor modality using extended dynamic hypernetworks and flexible metadata encoding; and 3) Copernicus-Bench, a systematic evaluation benchmark with 15 hierarchical downstream tasks ranging from preprocessing to specialized applications for each Sentinel mission. Our dataset, model, and benchmark greatly improve the scalability, versatility, and multimodal adaptability of EO foundation models, while also creating new opportunities to connect EO, weather, and climate research. Codes, datasets and models are available at https://github.com/zhu-xlab/Copernicus-FM.

Tasos Papazafeiropoulos, Nikolaos Ioannis Bountos, Nikolas Papadopoulos et al.

The growing availability of Earth Observation (EO) data and recent advances in Computer Vision have driven rapid progress in machine learning for EO, producing domain-specific models at ever-increasing scales. Yet this progress risks overlooking fundamental properties of EO data that distinguish it from other domains. We argue that EO data exhibit a multidimensional redundancy (spectral, temporal, spatial, and semantic) which has a more pronounced impact on the domain and its applications than what current literature reflects. To validate this hypothesis, we conduct a systematic domain-specific investigation examining the existence, consistency, and practical implications of this phenomenon across key dimensions of EO variability. Our findings confirm that redundancy in EO data is both substantial and pervasive: exploiting it yields comparable performance ($\approx98.5\%$ of baseline) at a fraction of the computational cost ($\approx4\times$ fewer GFLOPs), at both training and inference. Crucially, these gains are consistent across tasks, geospatial locations, sensors, ground sampling distances, and architectural designs; suggesting that multi-faceted redundancy is a structural property of EO data rather than an artifact of specific experimental choices. These results lay the groundwork for more efficient, scalable, and accessible large-scale EO models.

Spyros Kondylatos, Nikolaos Ioannis Bountos, Dimitrios Michail et al.

Recent advances in Computer Vision have introduced the concept of pretrained representation uncertainty, enabling zero-shot uncertainty estimation. This holds significant potential for Earth Observation (EO), where trustworthiness is critical, yet the complexity of EO data poses challenges to uncertainty-aware methods. In this work, we investigate the generalization of representation uncertainty in EO, considering the domain's unique semantic characteristics. We pretrain uncertainties on large EO datasets and propose an evaluation framework to assess their zero-shot performance in multi-label classification and segmentation EO tasks. Our findings reveal that, unlike uncertainties pretrained on natural images, EO-pretraining exhibits strong generalization across unseen EO domains, geographic locations, and target granularities, while maintaining sensitivity to variations in ground sampling distance. We demonstrate the practical utility of pretrained uncertainties showcasing their alignment with task-specific uncertainties in downstream tasks, their sensitivity to real-world EO image noise, and their ability to generate spatial uncertainty estimates out-of-the-box. Initiating the discussion on representation uncertainty in EO, our study provides insights into its strengths and limitations, paving the way for future research in the field. Code and weights are available at: https://github.com/Orion-AI-Lab/EOUncertaintyGeneralization.

Yuchen Bai, Georgios Athanasiou, Xin Yu et al.

Accurate next-day active fire forecasts can support early warning, disaster response, forest risk assessment, and downstream estimation of fire-related carbon emissions. Existing machine learning approaches to wildfire forecasting typically predict wildfire danger or fire probability on kilometre-scale daily grids, which is useful for regional warning but does not directly represent localized fire events. We propose Wildfire Ignition Set Predictor (WISP), a query-based model that reformulates next-day active fire forecasting as point-set prediction. From 48 hours of covariates including meteorology, satellite vegetation products, static land, and fire history, WISP predicts a fixed-size ranked set of future active fire cluster centres on a 375 m grid across globally distributed regions. The model is trained end-to-end with Hungarian matching; to address the conflicting roles of the classification score in assignment, ranking, and query activation, we use asymmetric classification-localization weighting in matching and loss. We further construct a globally distributed, hourly, multi-source benchmark for this task. On a held-out test set spanning fire regions worldwide, the best WISP variant achieves 38.2% average precision (AP) for ranked fire-centre detections, covers 53.4% of fire cluster mass weighted by fire radiative power (FRP), and localizes 54.1% of observed clusters within 5 km. These results establish sparse set prediction as a viable formulation for high-resolution wildfire forecasting and provide a benchmark for future work in this regime.

Nikolaos Ioannis Bountos, Arthur Ouaknine, Ioannis Papoutsis et al.

Forests are vital to ecosystems, supporting biodiversity and essential services, but are rapidly changing due to land use and climate change. Understanding and mitigating negative effects requires parsing data on forests at global scale from a broad array of sensory modalities, and using them in diverse forest monitoring applications. Such diversity in data and applications can be effectively addressed through the development of a large, pre-trained foundation model that serves as a versatile base for various downstream tasks. However, remote sensing modalities, which are an excellent fit for several forest management tasks, are particularly challenging considering the variation in environmental conditions, object scales, image acquisition modes, spatio-temporal resolutions, etc. With that in mind, we present the first unified Forest Monitoring Benchmark (FoMo-Bench), carefully constructed to evaluate foundation models with such flexibility. FoMo-Bench consists of 15 diverse datasets encompassing satellite, aerial, and inventory data, covering a variety of geographical regions, and including multispectral, red-green-blue, synthetic aperture radar and LiDAR data with various temporal, spatial and spectral resolutions. FoMo-Bench includes multiple types of forest-monitoring tasks, spanning classification, segmentation, and object detection. To enhance task and geographic diversity in FoMo-Bench, we introduce TalloS, a global dataset combining satellite imagery with ground-based annotations for tree species classification across 1,000+ categories and hierarchical taxonomic levels. Finally, we propose FoMo-Net, a pre-training framework to develop foundation models with the capacity to process any combination of commonly used modalities and spectral bands in remote sensing.

Shan Zhao, Ioannis Prapas, Ilektra Karasante et al.

Wildfire forecasting is notoriously hard due to the complex interplay of different factors such as weather conditions, vegetation types and human activities. Deep learning models show promise in dealing with this complexity by learning directly from data. However, to inform critical decision making, we argue that we need models that are right for the right reasons; that is, the implicit rules learned should be grounded by the underlying processes driving wildfires. In that direction, we propose integrating causality with Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) that explicitly model the causal mechanism among complex variables via graph learning. The causal adjacency matrix considers the synergistic effect among variables and removes the spurious links from highly correlated impacts. Our methodology's effectiveness is demonstrated through superior performance forecasting wildfire patterns in the European boreal and mediterranean biome. The gain is especially prominent in a highly imbalanced dataset, showcasing an enhanced robustness of the model to adapt to regime shifts in functional relationships. Furthermore, SHAP values from our trained model further enhance our understanding of the model's inner workings.

Ilektra Karasante, Lazaro Alonso, Ioannis Prapas et al.

The global occurrence, scale, and frequency of wildfires pose significant threats to ecosystem services and human livelihoods. To effectively quantify and attribute the antecedent conditions for wildfires, a thorough understanding of Earth system dynamics is imperative. In response, we introduce the SeasFire datacube, a meticulously curated spatiotemporal dataset tailored for global sub-seasonal to seasonal wildfire modeling via Earth observation. The SeasFire datacube comprises of 59 variables encompassing climate, vegetation, oceanic indices, and human factors, has an 8-day temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 0.25$^{\circ}$, and spans from 2001 to 2021. We showcase the versatility of SeasFire for exploring the variability and seasonality of wildfire drivers, modeling causal links between ocean-climate teleconnections and wildfires, and predicting sub-seasonal wildfire patterns across multiple timescales with a Deep Learning model. We publicly release the SeasFire datacube and appeal to Earth system scientists and Machine Learning practitioners to use it for an improved understanding and anticipation of wildfires.

Dimitrios Michail, Lefki-Ioanna Panagiotou, Charalampos Davalas et al.

With climate change expected to exacerbate fire weather conditions, the accurate anticipation of wildfires on a global scale becomes increasingly crucial for disaster mitigation. In this study, we utilize SeasFire, a comprehensive global wildfire dataset with climate, vegetation, oceanic indices, and human-related variables, to enable seasonal wildfire forecasting with machine learning. For the predictive analysis, we train deep learning models with different architectures that capture the spatio-temporal context leading to wildfires. Our investigation focuses on assessing the effectiveness of these models in predicting the presence of burned areas at varying forecasting time horizons globally, extending up to six months into the future, and on how different spatial or/and temporal context affects the performance of the models. Our findings demonstrate the great potential of deep learning models in seasonal fire forecasting; longer input time-series leads to more robust predictions across varying forecasting horizons, while integrating spatial information to capture wildfire spatio-temporal dynamics boosts performance. Finally, our results hint that in order to enhance performance at longer forecasting horizons, a larger receptive field spatially needs to be considered.

Angelos Zavras, Dimitrios Michail, Xiao Xiang Zhu et al.

The continuous operation of Earth-orbiting satellites generates vast and ever-growing archives of Remote Sensing (RS) images. Natural language presents an intuitive interface for accessing, querying, and interpreting the data from such archives. However, existing Vision-Language Models (VLMs) are predominantly trained on web-scraped, noisy image-text data, exhibiting limited exposure to the specialized domain of RS. This deficiency results in poor performance on RS-specific tasks, as commonly used datasets often lack detailed, scientifically accurate textual descriptions and instead emphasize solely on attributes like date and location. To bridge this critical gap, we introduce GAIA, a novel dataset designed for multi-scale, multi-sensor, and multi-modal RS image analysis. GAIA comprises of 205,150 meticulously curated RS image-text pairs, representing a diverse range of RS modalities associated to different spatial resolutions. Unlike existing vision-language datasets in RS, GAIA specifically focuses on capturing a diverse range of RS applications, providing unique information about environmental changes, natural disasters, and various other dynamic phenomena. The dataset provides a spatially and temporally balanced distribution, spanning across the globe, covering the last 25 years with a balanced temporal distribution of observations. GAIA's construction involved a two-stage process: (1) targeted web-scraping of images and accompanying text from reputable RS-related sources, and (2) generation of five high-quality, scientifically grounded synthetic captions for each image using carefully crafted prompts that leverage the advanced vision-language capabilities of GPT-4o. Our extensive experiments, including fine-tuning of CLIP and BLIP2 models, demonstrate that GAIA significantly improves performance on RS image classification, cross-modal retrieval and image captioning tasks.

Spyros Kondylatos, Nikolaos Ioannis Bountos, Ioannis Prapas et al.

Label noise poses a significant challenge in Earth Observation (EO), often degrading the performance and reliability of supervised Machine Learning (ML) models. Yet, given the critical nature of several EO applications, developing robust and trustworthy ML solutions is essential. In this study, we take a step in this direction by leveraging probabilistic ML to model input-dependent label noise and quantify data uncertainty in EO tasks, accounting for the unique noise sources inherent in the domain. We train uncertainty-aware probabilistic models across a broad range of high-impact EO applications-spanning diverse noise sources, input modalities, and ML configurations-and introduce a dedicated pipeline to assess their accuracy and reliability. Our experimental results show that the uncertainty-aware models consistently outperform the standard deterministic approaches across most datasets and evaluation metrics. Moreover, through rigorous uncertainty evaluation, we validate the reliability of the predicted uncertainty estimates, enhancing the interpretability of model predictions. Our findings emphasize the importance of modeling label noise and incorporating uncertainty quantification in EO, paving the way for more accurate, reliable, and trustworthy ML solutions in the field.

Johann-Ludwig Herzog, Mathis Jürgen Adler, Leonard Hackel et al.

Vision-langugage models (VLMs) have shown strong performance in computer vision (CV), yet their performance on remote sensing (RS) data remains limited due to the lack of large-scale, multi-sensor RS image-text datasets with diverse textual annotations. Existing datasets predominantly include aerial Red-Green-Blue imagery, with short or weakly grounded captions, and provide limited diversity in annotation types. To address this limitation, we introduce BigEarthNet$.$txt, a large-scale, multi-sensor image-text dataset designed to advance instruction-driven image-text learning in Earth observation across multiple tasks. BigEarthNet$.$txt contains 464044 co-registered Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar and Sentinel-2 multispectral images with 9.6M text annotations, including: i) geographically anchored captions describing land-use/land-cover (LULC) classes, their spatial relations, and environmental context; ii) visual question answering pairs relevant for different tasks; and iii) referring expression detection instructions for bounding box prediction. Through a comparative statistical analysis, we demonstrate that BigEarthNet$.$txt surpasses existing RS image-text datasets in textual richness and annotation type variety. We further establish a manually-verified benchmark split to evaluate VLMs in RS and CV. The results show the limitations of these models on tasks that involve complex LULC classes, whereas fine-tuning using BigEarthNet$.$txt results in consistent performance gains across all considered tasks.

Dimitrios Michail, Charalampos Davalas, Konstantinos Chafis et al.

With climate change intensifying fire weather conditions globally, accurate seasonal wildfire forecasting has become critical for disaster preparedness and ecosystem management. We introduce FireCastNet, a novel deep learning architecture that combines 3D convolutional encoding with GraphCast-based Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to model complex spatio-temporal dependencies for global wildfire prediction. Our approach leverages the SeasFire dataset, a comprehensive multivariate Earth system datacube containing climate, vegetation, and human-related variables, to forecast burned area patterns up to six months in advance. FireCastNet treats the Earth as an interconnected graph, enabling it to capture both local fire dynamics and long-range teleconnections that influence wildfire behavior across different spatial and temporal scales. Through comprehensive benchmarking against state-of-the-art models including GRU, Conv-GRU, Conv-LSTM, U-TAE, and TeleViT, we demonstrate that FireCastNet achieves superior performance in global burned area forecasting, with particularly strong results in fire-prone regions such as Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. Our analysis reveals that longer input time-series significantly improve prediction robustness, while spatial context integration enhances model performance across extended forecasting horizons. Additionally, we implement local area modeling techniques that provide enhanced spatial resolution and accuracy for region-specific predictions. These findings highlight the importance of modeling Earth system interactions for long-term wildfire prediction.

Ioannis Prapas, Nikolaos Papadopoulos, Nikolaos-Ioannis Bountos et al.

Forecasting wildfires weeks to months in advance is difficult, yet crucial for planning fuel treatments and allocating resources. While short-term predictions typically rely on local weather conditions, long-term forecasting requires accounting for the Earth's interconnectedness, including global patterns and teleconnections. We introduce TeleViT, a Teleconnection-aware Vision Transformer that integrates (i) fine-scale local fire drivers, (ii) coarsened global fields, and (iii) teleconnection indices. This multi-scale fusion is achieved through an asymmetric tokenization strategy that produces heterogeneous tokens processed jointly by a transformer encoder, followed by a decoder that preserves spatial structure by mapping local tokens to their corresponding prediction patches. Using the global SeasFire dataset (2001-2021, 8-day resolution), TeleViT improves AUPRC performance over U-Net++, ViT, and climatology across all lead times, including horizons up to four months. At zero lead, TeleViT with indices and global inputs reaches AUPRC 0.630 (ViT 0.617, U-Net 0.620), at 16x8day lead (around 4 months), TeleViT variants using global input maintain 0.601-0.603 (ViT 0.582, U-Net 0.578), while surpassing the climatology (0.572) at all lead times. Regional results show the highest skill in seasonally consistent fire regimes, such as African savannas, and lower skill in boreal and arid regions. Attention and attribution analyses indicate that predictions rely mainly on local tokens, with global fields and indices contributing coarse contextual information. These findings suggest that architectures explicitly encoding large-scale Earth-system context can extend wildfire predictability on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales.

Spyros Kondylatos, Gustau Camps-Valls, Ioannis Papoutsis

Wildfires are among the most severe natural hazards, posing a significant threat to both humans and natural ecosystems. The growing risk of wildfires increases the demand for forecasting models that are not only accurate but also reliable. Deep Learning (DL) has shown promise in predicting wildfire danger; however, its adoption is hindered by concerns over the reliability of its predictions, some of which stem from the lack of uncertainty quantification. To address this challenge, we present an uncertainty-aware DL framework that jointly captures epistemic (model) and aleatoric (data) uncertainty to enhance short-term wildfire danger forecasting. In the next-day forecasting, our best-performing model improves the F1 Score by 2.3% and reduces the Expected Calibration Error by 2.1% compared to a deterministic baseline, enhancing both predictive skill and calibration. Our experiments confirm the reliability of the uncertainty estimates and illustrate their practical utility for decision support, including the identification of uncertainty thresholds for rejecting low-confidence predictions and the generation of well-calibrated wildfire danger maps with accompanying uncertainty layers. Extending the forecast horizon up to ten days, we observe that aleatoric uncertainty increases with time, showing greater variability in environmental conditions, while epistemic uncertainty remains stable. Finally, we show that although the two uncertainty types may be redundant in low-uncertainty cases, they provide complementary insights under more challenging conditions, underscoring the value of their joint modeling for robust wildfire danger prediction. In summary, our approach significantly improves the accuracy and reliability of wildfire danger forecasting, advancing the development of trustworthy wildfire DL systems.

Nikolas Papadopoulos, Nikolaos Ioannis Bountos, Maria Sdraka et al.

Ground deformation is regarded in volcanology as a key precursor signal preceding volcanic eruptions. Satellite-based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) enables consistent, global-scale deformation tracking; however, deep learning methods remain largely unexplored in this domain, mainly due to the lack of a curated machine learning dataset. In this work, we build on the existing Hephaestus dataset, and introduce Hephaestus Minicubes, a global collection of 38 spatiotemporal datacubes offering high resolution, multi-source and multi-temporal information, covering 44 of the world's most active volcanoes over a 7-year period. Each spatiotemporal datacube integrates InSAR products, topographic data, as well as atmospheric variables which are known to introduce signal delays that can mimic ground deformation in InSAR imagery. Furthermore, we provide expert annotations detailing the type, intensity and spatial extent of deformation events, along with rich text descriptions of the observed scenes. Finally, we present a comprehensive benchmark, demonstrating Hephaestus Minicubes' ability to support volcanic unrest monitoring as a multi-modal, multi-temporal classification and semantic segmentation task, establishing strong baselines with state-of-the-art architectures. This work aims to advance machine learning research in volcanic monitoring, contributing to the growing integration of data-driven methods within Earth science applications.

Nikolaos Anastasiou, Spyros Kondylatos, Ioannis Papoutsis

Accurate prediction of wildfire spread is crucial for effective risk management, emergency response, and strategic resource allocation. In this study, we present a deep learning (DL)-based framework for forecasting the final extent of burned areas, using data available at the time of ignition. We leverage a spatio-temporal dataset that covers the Mediterranean region from 2006 to 2022, incorporating remote sensing data, meteorological observations, vegetation maps, land cover classifications, anthropogenic factors, topography data, and thermal anomalies. To evaluate the influence of temporal context, we conduct an ablation study examining how the inclusion of pre- and post-ignition data affects model performance, benchmarking the temporal-aware DL models against a baseline trained exclusively on ignition-day inputs. Our results indicate that multi-day observational data substantially improve predictive accuracy. Particularly, the best-performing model, incorporating a temporal window of four days before to five days after ignition, improves both the F1 score and the Intersection over Union by almost 5% in comparison to the baseline on the test dataset. We publicly release our dataset and models to enhance research into data-driven approaches for wildfire modeling and response.

Gustau Camps-Valls, Miguel-Ángel Fernández-Torres, Kai-Hendrik Cohrs et al.

In recent years, artificial intelligence (AI) has deeply impacted various fields, including Earth system sciences. Here, AI improved weather forecasting, model emulation, parameter estimation, and the prediction of extreme events. However, the latter comes with specific challenges, such as developing accurate predictors from noisy, heterogeneous and limited annotated data. This paper reviews how AI is being used to analyze extreme events (like floods, droughts, wildfires and heatwaves), highlighting the importance of creating accurate, transparent, and reliable AI models. We discuss the hurdles of dealing with limited data, integrating information in real-time, deploying models, and making them understandable, all crucial for gaining the trust of stakeholders and meeting regulatory needs. We provide an overview of how AI can help identify and explain extreme events more effectively, improving disaster response and communication. We emphasize the need for collaboration across different fields to create AI solutions that are practical, understandable, and trustworthy for analyzing and predicting extreme events. Such collaborative efforts aim to enhance disaster readiness and disaster risk reduction.

Nikolaos Ioannis Bountos, Ioannis Papoutsis, Dimitrios Michail et al.

Ground deformation measured from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data is considered a sign of volcanic unrest, statistically linked to a volcanic eruption. Recent studies have shown the potential of using Sentinel-1 InSAR data and supervised deep learning (DL) methods for the detection of volcanic deformation signals, towards global volcanic hazard mitigation. However, detection accuracy is compromised from the lack of labelled data and class imbalance. To overcome this, synthetic data are typically used for finetuning DL models pre-trained on the ImageNet dataset. This approach suffers from poor generalisation on real InSAR data. This letter proposes the use of self-supervised contrastive learning to learn quality visual representations hidden in unlabeled InSAR data. Our approach, based on the SimCLR framework, provides a solution that does not require a specialized architecture nor a large labelled or synthetic dataset. We show that our self-supervised pipeline achieves higher accuracy with respect to the state-of-the-art methods, and shows excellent generalisation even for out-of-distribution test data. Finally, we showcase the effectiveness of our approach for detecting the unrest episodes preceding the recent Icelandic Fagradalsfjall volcanic eruption.

Nikolaos Ioannis Bountos, Dimitrios Michail, Ioannis Papoutsis

The detection of early signs of volcanic unrest preceding an eruption, in the form of ground deformation in Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data is critical for assessing volcanic hazard. In this work we treat this as a binary classification problem of InSAR images, and propose a novel deep learning methodology that exploits a rich source of synthetically generated interferograms to train quality classifiers that perform equally well in real interferograms. The imbalanced nature of the problem, with orders of magnitude fewer positive samples, coupled with the lack of a curated database with labeled InSAR data, sets a challenging task for conventional deep learning architectures. We propose a new framework for domain adaptation, in which we learn class prototypes from synthetic data with vision transformers. We report detection accuracy that amounts to the highest reported accuracy on a large test set for volcanic unrest detection. Moreover, we built upon this knowledge by learning a new, non-linear, projection between the learnt representations and prototype space, using pseudo labels produced by our model from an unlabeled real InSAR dataset. This leads to the new state of the art with 97.1% accuracy on our test set. We demonstrate the robustness of our approach by training a simple ResNet-18 Convolutional Neural Network on the unlabeled real InSAR dataset with pseudo-labels generated from our top transformer-prototype model. Our methodology provides a significant improvement in performance without the need of manually labeling any sample, opening the road for further exploitation of synthetic InSAR data in various remote sensing applications.

Ioannis Papoutsis, Nikolaos-Ioannis Bountos, Angelos Zavras et al.

The availability of the sheer volume of Copernicus Sentinel-2 imagery has created new opportunities for exploiting deep learning (DL) methods for land use land cover (LULC) image classification. However, an extensive set of benchmark experiments is currently lacking, i.e. DL models tested on the same dataset, with a common and consistent set of metrics, and in the same hardware. In this work, we use the BigEarthNet Sentinel-2 dataset to benchmark for the first time different state-of-the-art DL models for the multi-label, multi-class LULC image classification problem, contributing with an exhaustive zoo of 60 trained models. Our benchmark includes standard CNNs, as well as non-convolutional methods. We put to the test EfficientNets and Wide Residual Networks (WRN) architectures, and leverage classification accuracy, training time and inference rate. Furthermore, we propose to use the EfficientNet framework for the compound scaling of a lightweight WRN. Enhanced with an Efficient Channel Attention mechanism, our scaled lightweight model emerged as the new state-of-the-art. It achieves 4.5% higher averaged F-Score classification accuracy for all 19 LULC classes compared to a standard ResNet50 baseline model, with an order of magnitude less trainable parameters. We provide access to all trained models, along with our code for distributed training on multiple GPU nodes. This model zoo of pre-trained encoders can be used for transfer learning and rapid prototyping in different remote sensing tasks that use Sentinel-2 data, instead of exploiting backbone models trained with data from a different domain, e.g., from ImageNet. We validate their suitability for transfer learning in different datasets of diverse volumes. Our top-performing WRN achieves state-of-the-art performance (71.1% F-Score) on the SEN12MS dataset while being exposed to only a small fraction of the training dataset.

Ioannis Prapas, Spyros Kondylatos, Ioannis Papoutsis et al.

Wildfire forecasting is of paramount importance for disaster risk reduction and environmental sustainability. We approach daily fire danger prediction as a machine learning task, using historical Earth observation data from the last decade to predict next-day's fire danger. To that end, we collect, pre-process and harmonize an open-access datacube, featuring a set of covariates that jointly affect the fire occurrence and spread, such as weather conditions, satellite-derived products, topography features and variables related to human activity. We implement a variety of Deep Learning (DL) models to capture the spatial, temporal or spatio-temporal context and compare them against a Random Forest (RF) baseline. We find that either spatial or temporal context is enough to surpass the RF, while a ConvLSTM that exploits the spatio-temporal context performs best with a test Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic of 0.926. Our DL-based proof-of-concept provides national-scale daily fire danger maps at a much higher spatial resolution than existing operational solutions.