15.7CLJun 25
Forecasting With LLMs: Improved Generalization Through Feature SteeringHumzah Merchant, Bradford Levy
Successful forecasting involves identifying patterns between historical and future states of the world which generalize to future observations. We apply LLMs to a variety of forecasting tasks and inspect their internal states using sparse autoencoders to understand whether they appear to rely on time-specific pieces of knowledge versus generalizable patterns. Our analyses identify features associated with both time-aware reasoning and look-ahead-biased reasoning. We then apply the LLMs to an entirely different domain and intervene on these features. We find that amplifying time-awareness features substantially reduces look-ahead bias on forecasting prompts while preserving general reasoning performance. In contrast, steering the candidate look-ahead-bias features does not produce an effect. These results suggest that interpretable temporal features can be used to causally shift LLMs toward more historically grounded reasoning.
5.7CLMay 29
Divergence Decoding: Inference-Time Unlearning via Auxiliary ModelsHumzah Merchant, Bradford Levy
Large Language Models (LLMs) frequently memorize sensitive training data thereby creating significant privacy and copyright risks. Addressing these risks, i.e., removing such knowledge from an existing model checkpoint, has proven challenging as many unlearning methods lead to catastrophic utility loss or are ineffective for complex queries. We introduce Divergence Decoding (DD), a mechanism that uses small auxiliary models to steer the logits of the LLM away from specific data during inference. Training these models is straight forward, i.e., we use standard pre-training and fine-tuning setups. We find the method decisively outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) baselines on unlearning benchmarks across a variety of model and training dataset scales consistent with DD being an effective and inexpensive solution to unlearning. We then demonstrate that this steered distribution can be trivially distilled back into the base model. Since the method is generally applicable to any probabilistic model, we explore its efficacy outside of text generation and find evidence of generalization to the domain of images.